Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

The last of the Internationals this week and a return to League action and live chats at the weekend. I look forward to it.

UEFA NATIONS LEAGUE (NL)

17:00 kick-offs

Andorra v Latvia - 2.1 Latvia

  • Neither side has won an NL match.
  • 0-0 when these 2 last met.
  • I always oppose the likes of Andorra, San Marino, Liechtenstein etc.
  • 0-0 seems best case Andorra today.
  • Latvia have only lost to Georgia this campaign.
  • As happened yesterday in the NL, there were a lot of matches where I put forward a backing of 0-0 pre match. This one today looks a similar case. Andorra are likely to pack that defence and we may see a 0-0 until at least halftime.

Georgia v Kazakhstan - 1.73 Georgia

  • 4 wins and a 1-1 draw with Andorra of all teams, for Georgia. 0-2 win away at Kazakhstan.
  • 2-1-1-0-1 conceded by the Kazaks. Only Georgia scored 2 goals and only Georgia recorded a win in the NL.
  • The 2 goals were scored 69th and 74th minute. One of the goals was an own goal.
  • A suggestion that Georgia, at home, may edge it 1-0 today and yet again it seems we may see 2nd half goals.

19:45 kick-offs

Bulgaria v Slovenia - 1.79 Bulgaria

  • A 1-2 Bulgarian away win v Slovenia saw Bulgaria score first, Slovenia equalize, and Bulgaria push on.
  • Will we see a similar display with home advantage?
  • 2/2 wins at home for Bulgaria this NL.
  • 1-1-0-1-1 scored by Slovenia this campaign suggests a trading angle. Lay Slovenia if Slovenia scores first given they do not seem to be able to follow up with a 2nd goal.

Germany v Netherlands - 1.97 Germany

  • 0-0 v France, 3-0 loss to Netherlands and 2-1 loss to France. Admittedly it's a tough group for the Germans. But 0-0-1 goals scored? Is Joacim Loew experimenting with the team selection for this NL competition?
  • Clear improvement from a Netherlands side who could not win as the Old Guard were replaced by New Blood. They are gelling now, and at home are imperious with 2/2 wins v Germany and France. Away they lost to France.
  • I could foresee a 2-1/ 1-2 scoreline today. The Dutch may be less dangerous away from home.

Denmark v Rep of Ireland - 1.61 Denmark

  • 10th v 33rd in the rankings.
  • Yes, that surprised me too. Denmark top 10.
  • The odds look right here.
  • Wins for the Danes came v Wales and a 0-0 in Ireland.
  • The Irish have lost twice to the Welsh.
  • 0-0 seems to be best case for the Irish today and they are certainly layable if scoring first. They have no Robbie Keane-type centre forward. In fact, I cannot name their forward line! Unlikely Ireland will score 2 goals if scoring first.

Liechtenstein v Armenia - 1.32 Armenia

  • Only 1 win for Liechtenstein in this EL came v Gibraltar.
  • It was a very tight head to head in Armenia where the score was 1-1 after 74 minutes until a Liechtenstein red card. That produced an Armenian 2nd goal in the 76th minute (penalty response?).
  • Both sides have lost to FYR Macedonia 2-0.
  • 182nd  v 101st in the rankings.
  • This would be a match where I would lay Armenia if Armenia scored first just for the hell of it. Remember it was 1-1 with Liechtenstein AWAY from home and with home advantage they may be stirred to another solid performance v a side ranked outside the top 100.

FYR Macedonia v Gibraltar - 1.09 FYR Macedonia

  • 2 first half goals away at Gibraltar is the template for this match.
  • 2-4 goals scored at home by FYR.
  • I expect 2 goals bare minimum from FYR today and they are likely to score before halftime. So if 0-0 at 20 minutes, consider backing 1-0, 2-0 in the halftime score market to create value.