DRT Daily Research Bulletin, June 19, 2017
I have an ultra sound on my knee this morning so may miss the tennis trading (a casualty while on Uncle Duty - what a trooper I am!). Will be trading once it is all over @drtclub. I am sorry I cannot research any more tennis. Weber Open and WTA Birmingham appealed but I cannot fit in before my hospital appointment. Apologies.
16:00 - Australia v Germany - 1.39 Germany
- Australia's recent form has a context - World Cup Asia qualifiers where they meet the likes of Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE. They simply do not meet a team of the calibre of Germany.
- Well, they do! They met Brazil in a friendly last match and lost 0-4.
- In a friendly in 2015, these 2 drew 2-2. Australia form v the likes of England, and Belgium (teams I can gauge against Germany) were in friendlies and were one-goal-in-it losses.
- Germany's 2 recent aberrations (draws) came in friendlies.
- Tough to evaluate one team against the other. If the Australian friendly form v England and Belgium is indicative of what could happen in a competitive match, then this might be tighter than the odds suggest with Oz getting a goal at least.
- They should not win. Favourites in the Confederations Cup have all delivered....eventually (Russia and Chile - Portugal were not strong favs). The strong favs' odds were about 1.6 and they scored 2 goals. So the market expects Germany to at least score 2 goals today.
17:00 - Slovakia u21 v England u21 - 1.71 England u21
- Czech and Germans are the only sides to have beaten Slovakia u21 since October 2015 in Euro Championship matches. Hence the tentative 1.71 odds for England u21.
- Slovakia u21 have scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
- 10 over 2.5 goals in their last 12 (the other 2 were 1-1) suggests entertainment for the Slovaks.
- Since September 2013, Eng-er-land u21 have only lost v Portugal (0-1 in 2015) and Italy (1-3 in June 2015).
- There seems to be a real slant towards defending from Eng-er-land u21. 0-0-0-1-1-1-0-0-0 conceded in recent matches is impressive.
- Under 21 teams are not equivalent in strength to their First Teams and sometimes we see peripheral teams shine.
- I think England u21 will have to be wary of a Slovak side with goals in them. I hope to be around to trade this on Twitter @drtclub to check the in-play stats. Slovak's may score.
- I would lay the Slovaks if they do score as per their both teams to score pattern.
Aegon - Queens
Mannarino v Tsonga - 1.32 Tsonga
- 51st v 11th.
- Both french players so will know each other.
- Mannarino lost on grass to Alex Zverev Mannarino retired in Monte Carlo.
- Since then on clay, round of 64, round of 64 and round of 128.
- Here last year he reached the round of 16.
- Tsonga excels in France, winning in Lyon and Marseille warm ups to the French Open where he was beaten in an epic 4 setter.
- Last year Tsonga didn't have a warm up to Wimbledon and reached the quarter finals.
- This is his first foray this year. Not sure of his mentality as he didn't warm up last year. Will he treat Queens as a warm up, much like a football friendly?
- Mannarino's loss to Zverev suggests we lay him if he wins first set against a clearly happy-on-grass Tsonga.
Dimitrov v Harrison - 1.23 Dimitrov
- 12th v 50th.
- Head to heads from 2014 and 2015 see 2-1 Dimi with Dimi losing the last one.
- Dimitrov was poor in Germany, lasting only one round v 165th. This does suggest he may not be fully wound up yet for the grass court.
- When playing top 20 recently, Harrison has lost in 2 straight sets.
- Dimi lasted only first round on his 2 warm up pre-Wimbledons last year.
- He reached the 3rd round of Wimbledon last year.
- Harrison played Challenger warm ups last year and did not get through qualifying for Wimbledon.
- Value may be in opposing Dimitrov at 1.24 ( laying him) as last year he did not take warm ups too seriously. Harrison though is clearly limited and tends to lose 2-0 to top 20 players so if you want to minimise risk, lay Dimitrov if Dimi wins the first set.
Tomas Berdych v Steve Darcis - 1.24 Berdych
- 13th v 53rd.
- Last head to heads 2012.
- Berdych had a poor French Open. He lost in the quarters on grass in Stuttgart when 1.5 favourite.
- Lopez it must be said has been in good grass court form.
- Tomas has tended to go the German route in pre-Wimbledon warm up tournaments. So a venture to Queens for the first time in a few years is interesting.
- Quarters and First round in previous years in warm up events.
- Clearly he is good on grass reaching the semi finals last year.
- Darcis reached the quarters on hard in Delray Beach and in Istanbul/ He lost in straight sets there to 8th ranked Cilic.
- He lost to another top 10 in Raonic in French Open and lost to 82nd Dolgopolov in Germany.
- Darcis was last at Wimbledon in 2015.
- Berdych really should be winning this v a Darcis who tends to fall foul of top 10. Will that extend to 13th?
Donald Young v Nick Kyrgios - 1.22 Nick
- 44th v 16th.
- I do not trade Kyrgios matches as he has thrown a few in the past and has a brain the size of a very small pea.
Kyle Edmund v Denis Shapovalobv - 1.37 Kyle
- An Englishman in England will count for something.
- 42nd v 178th.
- Edmund won this year's head to head in a 'default' after winning the first 2 sets - that was Davis Cup.
- Shapovalov has beaten two 100+ranked players on grass already including Liam Broady another Brit.
- Quarters and Second round for Edmund in Aegon events last year but a first round flop at Wimbledon.
- Shap has only played Wimbledon juniors.
- I expect Edmund to win today and would be delighted to back him at evens or thereabouts if he struggles. A Brit in England should gain some real benefit.
Cameron Norrie v Sam Querrey - 1.13 Querrey
- 238th v 27th.
- Norrie is a Challenger player so this is a huge step up.
- No indepth research . He has not really met a top 30 player so hard to quantify. Suffice to say let us hope that Querrey struggles here and becomes backable.
Sousa v Kohlschreiber - 1.21 Kohlschreiber
- A German in Germany, Kohl will get a boost.
- 37th v 31st so off the bat, 1.21 is a bit short if we look.
- Sorry I did not complete this. 1.21 was indeed short as Kohl lost first set.
Dustin Brown v Vasek Pospisil - 1.53 Vasek
- 75th v 112th - higher ranked player is favourite
- no recent head to heads.
- Brown is German remember
- Brown retired 3 matches ago so may be carrying an injury
- Vasek had a good run in a recent German grass court tournament.
- I must favour Vasek here based on ultra recent grass form and a slight concern v Dustin recent retirement. Want to back Vasek at evens if I can.
Monfils v Gasquet - 1.78 Monfils
- 17th v 23rd
- Gasquet retired in their very recent head to head. He did win the previous 2 encounters.
- 8-6 lifetime head to heads in favour of Gael
- The Gasquet retirement was the most recent match he played, at the French Open.
- Ordinarily I would have this down as a 3-setter between 2 frenchies who cannot be split.
- Question mark regarding Gasquet. Speculative lay of Gas if he wins first set based only on possible niggle. He has had the best of the recent encounters. If you can watch the match, that would be recommended to see as Gas gets on
Marterer v Thiem - 1.21 Thiem
- only complacency or injury should be Thiem's downfall. Superb clay court season. How is he on grass?
- 132nd v 9th
- Beware - Marterer is a German in Germany and could be boosted by home support.
- Wimbledon juniors the only Marterer grass court form
- got through qualifying to get here.
- we know Thiem's clay court credentials. Superb.
- Semi finals here at Halle last year. Final at Stuttgart last year. Not yet past the 2nd round Wimbledon though
- The Thiem grass court form should see him through. A hope for us value traders that Marterer gets some boost from German support. I would be happy to back Thiem at 1.5 as I would be confident of a win
Nishikori v Verdasco - 1.45 Nishikori
- 7th v 36th
- Nishikori has won the last 4 head to heads 3 set, 5 set, 3 set , 4 set
- Nishi is made to fight by a verdasco who tends to hint at an upset but not have the staying power.
- Verdasco's last match was a loss to Nishikori in 4 sets in the French Open. It was a cruise for Nishi after losing the first set 0-6
- Last year's grass form was skewed by retirements for Nishikori.
- 2nd round and 3rd round Verdasco in warm up grass events last year and 1st round Wimbledon exit.
- Verdasco has consistently lost to top 15 players and should lose today but he might give us some value odds for Nishi as he can clearly nick a set from the Japanese as head to heads tell us.
- So, back Nishi if Verdasco wins the first set. Lay Nishi perhaps if Nishi wins the first set in the hope Verdasco gets his traditional set !
Strycova v Putinseva - 1.34 Strycova
- 17th v 31st which for me is tight enough
- no recent head to heads and no recent grasscourt form
- Some reasonable 2016 grass court form for Strycova - finalist in Birmingham and 3rd round Wimbledon so fond memories.
- it seems to be 1st or 2nd round max for Putinseva on grass. I must be with the market today and favour Strycova should she get into any trouble
Heather Watson v Svitolina - 1.42 Svit
- Guernsey's finest ( and I am in Guernsey at the moment), our Heather I'm afraid will not be winning Wimbledon
- 111th v 13th.
- She is a Brit in england And in 2015 beat Elina in Eastbourne on grass so she does take a lot from the home support ( remember that Serena match??)
- Both head to heads have been 3 setters and you get the feeling we should lay the first set winner. Heather will fight if Elina wins first set. Elina will be EXPECTED to win 2nd if losing the first set