Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

An enjoyable live chat webinar yesterday where we were on the cusp of 2 big payouts. Altach came from 0-3 down to draw 3-3 and on 2 occasions, the scoreline showed 4-3 but the goal was disallowed. Midtjylland scored an 88th+ minute goal for the 4th time this season to come from 0-1 down to draw 1-1. I even got the time spot on too for Live chat watchers.
Today's coupon is tough. The sole Russian Premier league match sees a 2.5 odds favourite. 2.72 the favourite in Portugal.2.42 Varbergs in the Swedish Superettan. 2.48 Sarpsborg in the Norwegian Eliteserien. I won't research these matches. Inevitably the market gets it right with 2.4+ the favourite matches. There tends to be similar form lines for both teams. Wolves, Fenerbahce, Djurgardens are the stand outs today to monitor.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

20:00 - Wolves v Man Utd - 2.44 Man Utd

  • 0-0 Wolves v Leicester and 4-0 Man Utd v Chelsea in their openers.
  • 1-1, 2-1, 2-1....to Wolves last season.
  • No other angles but this will be a real tester for Man Utd. Wolves kept the much-improved Leicester at bay.

SWEDISH ALLSVENSKAN

18:00 - Elfsborg v Ostersunds FK - 208 Elfsborg

Elfsborg (10th)

  • Only 1 win in 10 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • 4 losses in 5 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 7 matches and last 3 at home.
  • Only 1 loss at home v 2nd.
  • 1-1 v Ostersunds earlier this season.
  • 5 goals scored last 15 minutes of home matches.

Ostersunds (9th)

  • Only 1 win in 13 matches.
  • No win in 6 away.
  • Conceded in their last 6 away.
  • Only 1 away win v 15th.
  • Failed to score that 2nd goal away.

Conclusions

  • If Ostersunds cannot score that 2nd goal, then lay them if they score first (cover the 0-1 insurance if you want to).
  • But, boy, this is only 1 win in 10 playing only 1 win in 13 matches.

18:00 - Helsingborgs v IFK Goteborg - 2.58 IFK

Helsingborgs (12th)

  • 3 wins and a draw last 4 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • 2-1 and 3-1 wins v 4th and 6th but lost 1-4 to 8th.
  • 3-1 loss to IFK earlier this season.
  • 10 of 13 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

IFK (7th)

  • Only 3 losses.
  • 4 draws in 5 matches.
  • 3 consecutive away draws.
  • No defeat in 7 and in 7 away.
  • 2 away losses v 2nd and 15th.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 matches away.
  • 10 of 14 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • I personally would favour IFK not to lose today, even if conceding but acknowledge that 2.58 the favourite suggests the market cannot split these 2. Maybe because Helsingborgs beat 4th and 6th but lost to 8th at home?

18:00 - Djurgardens v AFC Utd - 1.2 Djurgardens

Djurgardens (2nd)

  • No defeat in 11 and in 6 at home.
  • Scored in those matches.
  • 4 consecutive wins.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home and none at fulltime.
  • Only 1 home loss v 3rd.
  • 2+ goals scored at home v 7th and lower.
  • 7 goals scored last 15 minutes of home matches.

AFC (15th)

  • Only 3 wins all season, one came last away match.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Opponents have scored first in 7/9 away.
  • 4/4 losses away v the top 5.

Conclusions

  • Expect a home win, scoring 2+ goals. Note Djurgardens tendency to turn 0-0's at halftime into goals 2nd half at home.
  • Djurgardens score a lot last 15 minutes as well so watch that if somehow AFC keep it tight.

TURKISH SUPER LEAGUE

18:00 - Fenerbahce v Gaziantep - 1.47 Fenerbahce

  • Fenerbahce were one of a number of sides (Schalke, Villareal) who played below themselves last season.
  • Gaziantep are newly promoted.
  • Only 2 losses at home for Fenerbahce last season. Watching brief for yet another newcomer.