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I will do a review/preview video at DRT Facebook. I don't usually Telegram on a Monday.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

20:00 - Arsenal v Newcastle - 1.45 Arsenal

Arsenal - 11th

  • Better judged on very recent revival, 3 wins and a 0-0 (London derby).
  • The main characteristic? 3 consecutive clean sheets.
  • 3-1 v Chelsea and 0-0 v Palace in the home revival matches.
  • That's how I would look at Arsenal at the moment. Season long form is poor.

Newcastle - 15th

  • No win in 6 matches.
  • 3 losses and a draw last 4 matches.
  • 4 losses in their last 5 away matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • 2 away wins for Newcastle v West Ham and Crystal Palace - 2 London sides.
  • 5 goals scored and 5 goals conceded away last 15 minutes of matches.

Conclusions

  • I do expect the Arsenal revival to continue today. The defence is sharper and, bar Palace, they have been scoring again. Lacazette the main man at the moment.
  • On seasonal form, it's a different story but I will look at Arsenal last 4 matches. Newcastle have beaten 2 London sides away 0-2. Anything to read into that? Their recent form is poor. No win in 6, 4 losses in 5 away.

ITALIAN SERIA A

19:45 - Cagliari v Milan - 1.69 Milan

Cagliari - 17th

  • 4 consecutive defeats.
  • 3 losses in 4 at home.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 at home.
  • Scored last 7 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • All defeats v the top 7.

AC Milan - 2nd

  • Only 1 loss came last home match v Juventus.
  • 7 wins and a draw away.
  • Scored in every match.
  • 2+ goals scored last 8 away matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 6/7 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Ibrahimovic set for a return for Milan and that spells trouble for Cagliari. The latter tend to lose 1-3, 1-4 v the top 3 and play 2nd today. Cagliari mauled by Atalanta in the cup mid week and really should not have a chance today.
  • Cagliari may score today but not win.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market but note Cagliari tend to concede mostly away from home.

TURKISH SUPER LEAGUE

16:00 - Fenerbahce v Ankaragaku - 1.4 Fenerbahce

Fenerbahce - 2nd

  • 4 consecutive wins.
  • 3 consecutive home defeats have ended with 2 consecutive home wins.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of their last 4 matches.
  • Conceded last 7 at home.
  • Not played 14th and lower at home.
  • 10/14 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Ankaragaku - 19th

  • 2 wins and now 2 defeats.
  • Only 1 away win came v 20th.
  • Conceded in their last 7 away.
  • 3 losses v the top 4.
  • 7 goals conceded away came last 1/2 hour of matches.

Conclusions

  • Ankar's losses v the top 4, compounded by Fenerbahce's 4 consecutive wins and 2 consecutive home wins puts Fenerbahce in with a shout here, particularly if they can score 2 goals again.
  • Do note Fenerbahce do tend to score 2nd half and Ankar tend to concede last 30 minutes of matches so watch out for potential late action.

16:00 - Kasimpasa v Erzurum - 1.97 Kasimpasa

Kasimpasa - 15th

  • Won their last match but that was the only win in 5 matches.
  • Conceded 2 goals at least in 9 of their last 11 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 7 matches and last 3 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 3/3 wins at home v 16th and lower scoring 2 goals.
  • 7/10 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Erzurum - 21st

  • Only 3 wins did come away and were all either 1-2 or 1-3 wins.
  • 2 consecutive defeats without scoring.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Conceded last 14 matches and last 9 away.
  • Wins away came v 10th, 18th and 19th.
  • 7 goals conceded away 61st-75th minute.

Conclusions

  • Kasimpasa's 100% win record v 16th and lower at home, scoring 2+ goals, is compelling against bottom of the league. Intriguingly, Erzerum's wins come away v 10th, 18th and 19th, bottom half sides. Significant? Or is the fact that they don't keep clean sheets their downfall?
  • Kasimpasa tend to score first half.

ITALIAN SERIA B

20:00 - Spal v Reggina - 1.56 Spal

Spal - 5th

  • Only 2 wins in 7 matches but strong favourites today.
  • Only 1 home loss came last home match, a 2-3.
  • Scored first in 6/8 home matches.
  • No opponent has led at halftime at home.
  • Not played the bottom 3 at home.
  • 2+ goals scored in all bar 1 home match v 11th and lower.
  • 5/6 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Reggina - 18th

  • 6 losses and a draw last 7 matches.
  • Failed to score in each of their last 5 matches.
  • Wins away have come v 16th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Despite a poor recent run for Spal, the market has not deserted them and despite losing their last home match. They are yet to play the bottom 3 at home but have scored 2+ goals in all bar 1 match v 11th and lower and that pattern, if continuing, provides a solid foundation for Spal v bottom 3 Reggina who have failed to score in each of their last 5 matches.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA 2

19:30 - Hamburger v Osnabruck - 1.58 Hamburger

Hamburger - 2nd

  • Recently relegated so worth targeting.
  • 4 wins and a draw last 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 9th and lower.
  • 2+ goals scored in all home matches v 9th and lower.
  • 67% of goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Osnabruck - 11th

  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • Win, Win, Win, Loss, Win away recently.
  • Failed to score in a 0-0 and 3-0 loss v the top 3 away so that puts the recent solid form into context.

Conclusions

  • Can we trust Osnabruck's failure to score in 2 away matches v the top 3 (meeting 2nd today?). And can we trust Hamburg's consistent 2+ goals v 9th and lower at home?
  • If so, then it looks straightforward. Note Hamburg score 2/3rd of goals at home in the second half.