Lessons from yesterday's live chat webinar? Illiquid markets are untradable. If you come across an illiquid market at Betfair then consider having a bookmaker account (with good coverage of all football leagues). Also, another lesson? Just because we have an elite league match, it does not mean we have to trade in it! Please don't be lured in to elite league matches if you do not have a fair indication of what should prevail based on the seasonal form. Here endeth the lessons.
A small set of matches today but they all look readable. Will Dortmund cock up with a 5th March potential Champions league distraction? Roma to gain revenge against Bologna with, again, a bit of a wait until their next Champions League encounter? Benfica, Metz and Basaksehir look worthy favourites.
19:30 - Nurnberg v Dortmund - 1.43 Dortmund
- Nurnberg, as I have said previously, look automatically getable especially against an elite side.
- Only 2 wins all season for Nurnberg and no win in 15 matches.
- They conceded in all of those 15 matches and last 8 at home.
- 5 0-0's at halftime at home for Nurnberg (45%).
- Nurnberg are yet to meet the top 4.1-1 v 5th and 7th at home.
- 73% of goals scored and conceded at home came 2nd half.
- Only 1 loss for Dortmund came v Dusseldorf.
- 2 consecutive score draws.
- 1-1-1 goals scored away in recent matches.
- Dortmund have failed to score in only 1 match.
- Dortmund scored in their last 9 away.
- 2-4-4-5-0-7 goals scored v 14th and lower home and away. Dortmund play bottom today.
- 10 goals scored last 30 minutes of away matches.
- No Champions League for Dortmund until 5th March so they should not be impacted.
- I note that Nurnberg have scored and conceded a lot v the top sides but remember they have not met top 4. I must expect a Dortmund away win today despite that Nurnberg gap in form. 2 consecutive score draws for Dortmund is a sequence I would be keen to see end.
ITALIAN SERIA A
19:30 - Roma v Bologna - 1.44 Roma
- Champions League for Roma on the 6th March so they should not be negatively impacted today.
- 4 wins and 2 draws in the last 6 matches for Roma.
- They have only failed to score in 4, all defeats and lost 2-0 to Bologna in a horror show pre-Champions League match for them.
- Roma have scored and conceded in their last 6 matches.
- No 0-0 at halftime at home for Roma.
- 3rd Bottom Bologna. Roma have 4-0 and 2-2 v bottom 2 at home.
- Only 3 wins for Bologna and a recent win away at Inter. Says more about Inter than Bologna.
- 0-1 and 1-1 last 2 now for Bologna. Sign of a mini revival?
- Gap in form away v 4th-9th for Bologna. They play 6th today.
- 70% of their goals scored away came 1st half.
- I would take a chance and lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. if Roma are scoring and conceding and Bologna score 70% of away goals 1st half, we should have a chance.
- I could foresee revenge for Roma today. No Champions League distractions. Bologna, yet, are keeping it tight with 1-0 win and 1-1 latest but should not win today.
SPANISH LA LIGA
20:00 - Huesca v Atl Bilbao - 2.48 Bilbao
- A very unappealing betting market. I hope I show you live chat attendees that paying attention to the market, particularly here where it suggests a too-tough-to-call match, can save you losses.
- Are bottom side Huesca immediately opposable?
- A 0-0 and 2 consecutive wins for Huesca. Only 4 wins all season though.
- 3 consecutive clean sheets.
- Mixed form at home for Huesca who have beaten 8th and 16th only.9 of 12 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
- Only 1 loss in 9 for Bilbao came last match. Marked improvement in form BUT only 1 away win.
- The recent revival has come at home.
- 1-2 v 17th, 1-1 v 18th and 1-1 v 19th so unbeaten and meet 20th today away.
- 2-2 the last time these 2 last played.
- The reason the market is non-committal here is because Huesca have 3 consecutive clean sheets, a draw and 2 wins. And Bilbao, who are unbeaten away v bottom 4, have only 1 away win.
- Both teams may score and strictly on seasonal form, Bilbao should not lose.....but I must remind you. 2.48 suggests a headscratcher.
ENGLISH FA CUP
19:30 - Chelsea v Man Utd - 2.12 Chelsea
- Too tough to call I'm afraid. Interesting that Chelsea are marginal favourites today. A watch and enjoy match with a leaning towards the in-play stats if you want to find a trading angle.
PORTUGEUSE PRIMEIRA LIGA
20:15 - Aves v Benfica - 1.35 Benfica
- This match is a must win for Benfica who are 4 points shy of Porto at the top.
- 3 wins in 4 for Aves, 2 of the wins came away.
- Only 3 clean sheets, 2 came recently away.
- Aves have conceded in their last 8 at home which is likely to have them on the back foot from the start today.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime both sides suggests we lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
- 100% defeats v top 5 and 2 losses to nil v top 3. Benfica are 2nd.
- 11 wins in 12 for Benfica. The new manager has kept up that momentum.
- No draw in 15 for Benfica leans us more towards an away win.
- 2-0 win v Aves earlier this season.Unbeaten v 11th and lower.
- Benfica should win today. Lay 0-0 halftime score market. Aves should have trouble even scoring but if scoring, are layable.
FRENCH LIGUE 2
19:45 - Metz v Beziers - 1.4 Metz
- I thought I would take a look at this with Metz top of the league.
- 3 draws in 4 for Metz is a slight wobble.
- 6 clean sheets for Metz in their last 8 matches.
- Metz have scored in their last 5 home matches.
- 100% wins v 14th and lower. Beziers are 18th. Metz beat them 1-3 earlier this season.
- No win in 10 for Beziers. No draw in 13 away does suggest mostly an away loss rather than win.
- Beziers have conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 4 matches.
- 100% defeats v top 4.failed to score in 3 away defeats v top 5.
- Not a league I know too well but this does all point to about 2/3 goals from Metz today in a possible win to nil.
- Should Beziers score, they are immediately opposable on seasonal form.
TURKISH SUPER LIG
17:00 - Antalyaspor v Basaksehir - 1.67 Basaksehir
- I thought I would research Basakeshir as they are near top of Turkish Super Lig.
- No win in 6 for Antalyaspor. They failed to score in 4 of those matches.
- 2 0-0's at home in their last 3 matches.
- They have lost that home v 2nd and 3rd and meet 1st today.
- They lost 4-0 to Basaksehir earlier this season.
- Only 2 losses for Basakeshir this season.
- 3 wins in 4.
- 6 wins in 7 away.
- They have failed to score only 3 times.
- No defeat in 10 away.
- Only away loss v 8th, and they play 9th today but this Kasimpasa were beating top 4 sides earlier this season. That was the only away match in which Basaksehir conceded 2 goals.
- Basakeshir have not conceded a first half goal away.
- Antalyaspor do have recent 0-0's at home which is a slight concern. Basaksehir rarely concede 2 goals away so definitely lay Antalyaspor if Antalyaspor score first.
- Solid recent away form has me with the away side today. You might want a throwaway back of 0-0 pre match just in case Antalyaspor record another 0-0 at home (2 in 3).