Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Yesterday's trades?
  • Lay the 0-0 halftime score market did not come in Bodo match but the bright lights amongst you would have considered 2nd half goals IF first half goals were expected. 2-0 it ended.
  • With the research stating Viking are likely to score, then it should be doubly strong with that early Lillestrom red card. Did you play? 0-1 halftime 0-2 fulltime to Viking.
  • Gotta lovva bitta Mjondalen! 1-0 to them. These are the Norwegian Hoffenheim. I hope you layed hapless Mjondalen late on? 85th minute concession. D'OH!!
  • Molde scored 2 goals again.
  • If you followed the in-play stats, you'd have layed Aalesunds 0-1. Ham-Kam equalised as they were entitled to. Unbeaten Aalesunds ended up winning.
  • Tromsdalen led 2-1 second half. Research suggested they were layable 'all ends up'. It took an 86th minute Nest equaliser though!!
  • Market was right with Halmstad. Only 3 wins yet strong favourite. They did win 2-0!
  • Tianjin scored first. Did you lay them?
On to today, and it's a mixed bag. Germany U21 look good. I would expect them not to lose. German women and French women only need draws today so be careful with these shorties. Norway and Nigerian ladies must win or at least better the results of each other in order to grab 2nd spot. VPS look layable if scoring first.

UEFA U21 CHAMPIONSHIP

17:30 - Serbia U21 v Austria U21 - 2.14 Serbia U21

  • Group B also includes Denmark and Germany. So a suggestion here that if these teams can take points of each other, they will have a chance (I am assuming Germany are as solid as their parent International side).
  • This is the first match in the group.
  • 1-3 Serbia in 2017 and 0-0 in 2018 in head to heads.
  • Serbia look a bit good in qualifiers, albeit I am going back to 2017 and 2018. 8 wins and 2 consecutive 0-0's. The 0-0's came in October 2018 but still, 0-0 sequences I am keen to see end when they are collected like this.
  • Serbia conceded 2 goals only twice in that solid run, again reminding you the last match played was October 2018.
  • Only 1 loss at home for Serbia was v Spain (since September 2015 in this competition).
  • Only 1 loss in 9 in all competitions for Austria U21 was v Spain. Another side, like Serbia U21, not conceding that 2nd goal regularly.
  • 7 wins and a 0-0 v Serbia in this competition historically.
  • It does look a tough match to call. Despite my keenness for that 0-0 sequence to end, consideration could be given to backing 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 pre match as there is a hint that these 2 look defensively sound.
  • I think rankings/seedings are here http://www.football-rankings.info/2017/01/2019-uefa-under-21-qualifying-seeding.html and may give an indication for us.  9th v 13th.

20:00 - Germany U21 v Denmark U21 - 1.69 Germany U21

  • 1st v 5th in the seedings.
  • Group B.
  • 3-0 Germany in 2017 was the most recent head to head.
  • 10 wins and 2 draws in 12 matches in all competitions for Germany.
  • In 11 of those matches, Germany scored 2 goals at least.
  • Germany scored 2+ goals in their last 7 home matches.
  • In the Euros, historically, only 2 losses since September 2015 came v Italy and Norway.
  • 14 consecutive home wins for Germany in this competition. 6 clean sheets last 8 matches.
  • 3 losses in 5 matches for the Danes came v 3rd, 4th and 14th.
  • I stop there. On this basis, with the Danes losing to 3rd and 4th, and playing 1st today, I would be surprised if Denmark U21 win this match.

FIFA WOMEN'S WORLD CUP

17:00 - China (W) v Spain (W) - 1.97 Spain

  • 16th v 13th in the rankings.
  • A must win for these 2, on the same points in 2nd and 3rd in Group B.
  • 1-0 loss to Germany and 0-1 win v South Africa for China.
  • 3-1 win v South Africa and 1-0 loss v Germany.
  • Quite similar form here.
  • Nothing for me to get my teeth into here. This is a must-win for both teams, a draw I feel may be ok for Spain who have slightly better goal difference.

17:00 - South Africa (W) v Germany (W) - 1.09 Germany

  • 49th v 2nd in the rankings.
  • A draw for Germany will see them win Group B. South Africa cannot qualify. You have 2 options here with a shortie in this competition.
  • Germany have won 1-0 in both matches, 42nd and 66th minute goals. So...back 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 pre match and hope for a concerted period of 0-0. Remember, all 3 of these scorelines will drop the longer the match is 0-0.
  • I would personally not operate my halftime score strategy today. But you may want to. Remember, 20 minutes 0-0, back 1-0, 2-0 , any unquoted in the halftime score market.
  • Please remember that a draw will do for German ladies.

20:00 - Nigeria (W) v France (W) - 1.14 France

  • 38th v 4th in the rankings.
  • Group A also sees Norway and Korea. +5 goal difference for the French should see them guarantee qualification unless they lose and Norway or Nigeria win by a sufficient number to leap France on goal difference.
  • Must win therefore for the Nigerians today. They must better Norway's result.
  • 3-0 loss v Norway and 2-0 win v Korea for the Nigerians.
  • 4-0 win v Korea and 2-1 win v Norway for the French. The win there came via a penalty for the French.
  • Remember the French just need a draw in order to qualify.
  • It is tough for me to trust a team who know that a draw is all that they need. This makes France layable at 1.14 as the value call, albeit it is unlikely to come in. Remember that they are playing at home today!

20:00 - South Korea (W) v Norway (W) - 1.41 Norway

  • 14th v 12th in the rankings.
  • South Korea cannot qualify. Norway need to do better than Nigeria today in order to grab 2nd spot.
  • 4-0 and 2-0 losses so far for a South Korean side unable to score so far. Both of their opponents scored at least one goal before halftime.
  • Norway beat Nigeria 3-0 and lost 2-1 to France - as I said above the French winner was a penalty. Albeit the Norwegian goal was an own goal.
  • We must be with the must wins Norway today surely? If South Korea score and score first, that would be a shock so lay them. Remember that Norway must do better than Nigeria today.

NORWEGIAN ELITESERIEN

18:00 - Stabaek v Tromso - 2.26 Stabaek

Stabaek (15th)

  • Only 2 wins came at home.
  • 3 consecutive defeats.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not played the bottom 3 (where they reside).
  • Not conceded that 2nd goal at home.

Tromso (16th)

  • 7 losses, a draw and win last 9.
  • Won last match at home.
  • Only 2 wins this season were 2-1.
  • No clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Scored and conceded away v 13th and 14th, 1-1 and 3-1 loss.
  • 4 of 5 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Only 2 wins for both of these bottom 3 sides. I cannot trust these 2. Can you?
  • Only 1 clean sheet v no clean sheets.
  • Not for me thanks. It takes researching it for me to find that out!

FINNISH VEIKKAUSLIIGA

16:30 - VPS v KuPS - 2.2 KuPS

VPS (11th)

  • No win.
  • 3 consecutive defeats after 6 draws, 5 of those score draws.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Scored 2 goals only once this season.
  • Conceded last 8 and last 5 at home.
  • 6 of 7 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • Not played KuPS this season.

KuPS (6th)

  • 3 losses, 2 came at home. 2 losses last 3 matches were only 1-0.
  • Only away loss v 1st.
  • Unbeaten away v 7th and lower.

Conclusions

  • For me, if VPS score first, lay them and cover the 1-0 (given KuPS have had 3 consecutive 1-0 scorelines, 2 defeats).
  • I do not expect KuPS to lose today.
  • Watch out for 2nd half goals if 0-0 at halftime. VPS concede most 2nd half at home.