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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, April 17, 2017

I will research as many matches as I can today. Some of the English Championship matches are unappealing. I have started with the odds on favourites as they are more readable.

14:45 - Fulham v Aston Villa - 1.79 Fulham

  • 1-0 Aston Villa earlier this season.
  • This is 7th v 12th in the English Championship.

Fulham 100% stats

  • No home 0-0.
  • Unbeaten at home v 2nd-15th inclusive.

Fulham other stats

  • 2 consecutive 3-1 wins.
  • 10 of last 12 home matches over 2.5 goals.
  • Failed to score in only 6 matches.
  • Scored last 16 at home.
  • Scored and conceded last 7 at home.

Aston Villa 100% stats

  • Failed to score away v 5th - 11th inclusive.

Aston Villa other stats

  • Only 2 defeats in 10 matches.
  • 7 clean sheets in 10 but conceded last 2 matches.
  • 10 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Failed to score in 11 of 14 matches away v top 16 sides.

Conclusions

  • Good winning form Villa must be put into context. They have failed to score in the vast majority of away matches v the top 14. I do feel this gives Fulham a clear advantage. They have scored last 16 at home and even have 2+ goals in them.
  • Fulham should be eyeing the win today. Aston Villa must be layed if scoring first.
  • We might see a 0-0 at halftime. Villa have quite a few away.

15:00 - Brighton v Wigan - 1.47 Brighton

  • 0-1 Brighton earlier in the season.
  • This is 1st v 23rd. 3 points massive for either side. Bottom of Championship is tight.

Brighton 100% stats

  • A wins takes Brighton 6 points clear with 3 matches remaining.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • All wins v bottom 4.
  • All home wins v 16th and lower.

Brighton other stats

  • 6 wins in 7 matches.
  • Scored in their last 18 at home.
  • 10 1-0 leads at halftime at home.
  • All wins bar 1 home and away v 16th and lower.

Wigan 100% stats

  • 3 out of 3 defeats v top 2.

Wigan other stats

  • 2 consecutive 3-2 home wins.
  • No draw 8 away.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of last 5 matches.
  • Only 1 win home and away v top 10.
  • 11 of 12 away defeats were by a single goal.

Conclusions

  • This could be a tight match but Brighton should prevail on form.
  • Lay Wigan if Wigan score first. Brighton could get 2 goals today - Wigan are conceding 2 regularly.

15:00 - Leeds v Wolves - 2.14 Leeds

  • 0-1 Leeds the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 5th v 16th in the Championship.

Leeds 100% stats

  • No over 3.5 goals at home.

Leeds other stats

  • 4 wins and a 0-0 last 5 home matches.
  • 4 consecutive home clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 all season.
  • 11 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only losing once at halftime at home.
  • Only 2 defeats at home v teams below them in the league.
  • 10 of 12 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Wolves  stats

  • 5 consecutive wins ended with 2 consecutive defeats.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 away.
  • Only 2 wins home and away v top 6.
  • Failed to score in 7 of 10 matches home and away v top 6.

Conclusions

  • Wolves away form has no real pattern to it. They can beat Newcastle and Fulham away but also cannot beat the bottom 4. A dangerous side for trading is an unpredictable side.
  • if 0-0 at halftime I would expect a 2nd half goal at least.
  • Wolves have had a recent both teams to score pattern away but then 4 consecutive home clean sheets for Leeds could scupper that.
  • All in all, a messy match stats wise.

15:00 - Blackburn v Bristol City - 2.48 Blackburn

  • 1-0 Bristol City last head to head.
  • This is 22nd v 18th in the Championship.

Blackburn stats

  • Only 1 win in 8 v a poor Forest side.
  • Only 6 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0.
  • Unbeaten at home v 14th and lower.

Bristol City stats

  • 4 wins and 2 away defeats last 6 matches.
  • No away 0-0.
  • Only 3 away wins, 2 v bottom 4 sides.

Conclusions

  • A match which could see either side with a good argument for winning. Blackburn are unbeaten at home v 14th and lower. Bristol City have 2 wins and a draw away v bottom 4 teams.
  • A match to leave alone for me.
  • Lay any late 0-0.

15:00 - Birmingham v Burton - 2.3 Birmingham

  • 2-0 Burton last head to head.
  • This is 19th v 21st in the English Championship. A real relegation six-pointer.

Birmingham stats

  • Only 2 wins in 21 matches.
  • Beat 22nd and 24th at home and play 21st today.

Burton stats

  • Only 2 wins last 10 but only 3 defeats.
  • Only 3 away wins.
  • Scored and conceded in 3 of 4 away v 20th and lower.

Conclusions

  • A real relegation six pointer, so I am leaving this well alone. Sorry! Wimping out of this one!

15:00 - Ipswich v Newcastle - 1.79 Newcastle

  • 3-0 earlier this season.
  • This is 15th v 2nd in the Championship.

Ipswich stats

  • Scored and conceded 9 of last 11 matches.
  • 5 score draws ended with a win last home match.
  • Not beaten top 5 home or away.

Newcastle stats

  • Only 3 defeats since start of the year.
  • 2 0-0's and 2-1 defeat last 3 away.
  • 70% halftime scores away 0-0 or 0-1.
  • Unbeaten away 8th-19th inclusive.
  • Not conceded both halves away.

Conclusions

  • Ipswich have been tough to beat recently but too many score draws suggests they are layable if scoring first.
  • Ipswich not beaten any top 5 team home or away and that looks conclusive. Do not expect Newcastle to lose. Newcastle really must win with Brighton having a winnable home match.
  • Halftime score could be 0-0 or 0-1 Newcastle.

15:00 - QPR v Sheff Wed - 2.38 Sheff Wed

  • 1-0 Sheff Wed in the last head to head.
  • This is 17th v 6th in the English Championship.

QPR stats

  • Relegation threatened.
  • 4 consecutive defeats.
  • 4 consecutive home wins ended with a defeat last home match.
  • Only 6 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded last 9 at home.
  • No home 0-0.
  • Did beat 5th side Leeds at home but the only win v top 9 at home.

Sheff Wed stats

  • 4 consecutive wins.
  • Failed to score in only 6 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 away.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • Another of those important matches for either side could see QPR play above themselves.
  • Sheff Wed are poor away from home but always seem to have a goal in them v 16th and lower so I would expect a goal from them.
  • Both teams could score today. It is a recent habit of QPRs.
  • A championship match where it is a mystery why the top 6 side is not the strong favourite in the betting market.
  • I would lay QPR if QPR scored first.

15:00 - Cardiff v Nottm Forest - 2.32 Cardiff

  • 1-2 Cardiff in the last head to head.
  • This is 14th v 20th in the Championship.
  • Forest are in need of points more than Cardiff who have breathing space to the relegation zone.

Cardiff stats

  • Only 3 defeats in 12 matches.
  • No defeat in 5 at home, scoring and conceding in the last 4.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • 6 wins, 2 losses and a draw at home v teams below them in the league.

Nottm Forest stats

  • Only 2 wins in 12 matches.
  • No win in 11 away.
  • Really poor away but intriguingly have wins v 13th and 15th away.....playing 14th today.
  • Conceded 2 goals at least in 11 of 13 matches away v top 13 sides.

Conclusions

  • On form Cardiff really should not be losing this match. Forest are so poor away can likely to concede 2 goals at least. They did beat 13th and 15th away and play 14th today but that looks anomolous.
  • Lay any late 0-0. I would lay Forest if Forest scored first today.

15:00 - Reading v Rotherham - 1.38 Reading

  • 0-1 Reading last head to head.
  • This is 4th v 24th - Rotherham are down. So basic research.

Reading stats

  • 4 wins in 5 matches.
  • 6 wins and 2 draws last 8 home matches.
  • 67% of halftime scores at home 0-0 or 1-0.
  • 6 wins out of 6 home and away v bottom 5 scoring 3 goals 4 times.

Rotherham stats

  • 13 consecutive away defeats.
  • No win in 21 away.
  • Conceded last 22 matches and last 21 away.
  • All defeats v top 9.

Conclusions

  • A much-needed win for Reading on the cards to help consolidate a top 4 spot.
  • Rotherham highly likely to concede so note that if Rotherham happen to lead.
  • Reading most likeliest first half first goal scorers.
  • Lay the 0-0 Halftime score market.
  • Expect a Reading win.

15:00 - Derby v Huddersfield - 2.68 Derby

  • Deep joy. Another favourite at 2.68 odds tells us it's another indecipherable Championship match.
  • 1-0 Huddersfield last head to head.
  • This is 8th v 3rd in the English Championship.
  • Derby are 10 points shy of the play-offs. Huddersfield are 7 points shy of automatic promotion.

Derby stats

  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • 3 defeats in 8 came away.
  • Unbeaten in 5 at home.
  • 13 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only 4 defeats at home. Failed to score at home v 1st and 2nd but beat 4th 3-2.
  • Only 1 loss at home v top 13.
  • 20 of 29 home goals scored 2nd half.

Huddersfield stats

  • All 5 draws this season were 1-1.
  • 3 defeats last 5 matches so wobbling.
  • 2 consecutive away defeats.
  • No 0-0.
  • No draw home or away v top 11 teams.
  • 5 defeats and 2 wins away v top 9 teams.

Conclusions

  • On form, I would be with Derby in this very important match (and all matches now are very important, particularly for Derby who must win).
  • Huddersfield have shown consistently a vulnerability v the top 9. Derby have only 1 loss v the top 13 so I would lay Huddersfield if Huddersfield scored first.
  • Again, a caveat, these top clashes may not go with the form such is the importance of the 3 points.
  • If 0-0 at halftime, fear not, Huddersfield have not had a 0-0 this season.
  • Lay any late draw.

19:45 - Alaves v Villareal - 2.62 Villareal

  • As the sole Primera Liga match I have to research but when a favourite is 2.62, the market is telling us this is a toughie.
  • 0-2 Alaves the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 12th v 5th.

Alaves 100% stats

  • Not beaten top 4 at home yet.
  • Not scored 2 goals in a home match v top 9.

Alaves other stats

  • 3 consecutive defeats.

Villareal 100% stats

  • Not conceded in both halves.

Villareal other stats

  • No draw in 9 saw 6 wins.
  • Lost only 1 match at halftime away.
  • Only 1 loss away v 9th and lower saw 6 clean sheets.
  • 7 of 8 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Villareal look tighter away from home and don't tend to concede 2. Lay Alaves if Alaves score first?
  • If Villareal do not concede 1st half, they are likely to concede 2nd half.
  • Might be 0-0 at halftime so watch out for that. I would not expect a 0-0 fulltime.

20:00 - Middlesbrough v Arsenal - 1.58 Arsenal

  • 0-0 the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 19th v 7th in the Premiership. Points required for different reasons.
  • Basic research today.

Middlesbrough stats

  • No win in 14 and in 6 at home.
  • Failed to score in 6 of 8 matches.
  • 3 0-0's at home in last 6 home matches.
  • No win home or away v top 15.
  • Not scored a 2nd goal home or away v top 11.

Arsenal stats

  • Only 2 wins in 8 matches.
  • 4 consecutive away matches conceding 3 goals.
  • Failed to score only 3 times.
  • 9 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches away.
  • 4 goals scored in each win away v bottom 4.
  • Twice as many goals scored and conceded 2nd half as first half away.

Conclusions

  • At their best (and they are far from that), Arsenal are capable of 4 goals today.
  • At their best, Boro can nick a 0-0 which is a recent habit.
  • With Boro unable to score that 2nd goal, if they score first, they are opposable.
  • Must wins for either side!