Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

I hope you enjoyed the weekend live chat webinars. The Sunday one did go on longer than anticipated as I lost track of time. There were some great tradable matches and great shouts from members too. Today is the quiet after the storm but still there are a few of today's matches with ready angles.
The Premier League match looks tough to call. Watching brief for newly promoted Aston Villa. The form would suggest a slight nod towards West Ham but Aston Villa have scored in their 2 home matches and did beat Everton (albeit Everton showed yesterday that they are yet to find their form away from home.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

20:00 - Aston Villa v West Ham - 2.7 West Ham

  • -2.5 goals: Bottom-six promoted teams have had -2.5 goals in 54% of home matches against top-half teams since 2014-15. There have been -2.5 goals in 8/12 West Ham away matches. West Ham have conceded first in 8/12 away matches against promoted teams.
  • Bournemouth v Everton was at similar odds yesterday....and did you see that scoreline?
  • That is my concern here. 2.7 odds = unreadability.
  • 3 defeats and a home win v Everton for Aston Villa.
  • 1-2 loss and 2-0 win at home to date.
  • West Ham lost v Man City, drew away v Brighton and beat Watford and Norwich.
  • I don't have a strong angle here. Do note Villa have scored in their 2 home matches. West Ham, for me, look as if they can cope with teams like Villa but I remind you that 2.7 the favourite suggests it could go any way.

ITALIAN SERIA A

19:45 - Torino v Lecce - 1.52 Torino

  • Match outcome: Torino FC have won 10/12 home matches while bottom-six promoted teams have lost 62% of away matches against top-six teams since 2014-15. Bottom-six promoted teams have conceded first in 68% of away matches against top-six teams since 2014-15.
  • Torino are out of the Europa League so no distractions.
  • They play newly promoted Lecce and logically we expect the home side to oblige.
  • 2-1 and and 2-3 win for Torino so brace yourself if they concede, for they shouldn't lose.
  • 4-0 and 0-1 losses for Lecce suggests a tough season ahead.

RUSSIAN PREMIER LEAGUE

18:00 - Dinamo Moscow v FC Ufa - 1.67 Dinamo Moscow

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 9/11 D. Moscow home matches and in 7/8 Ufa away matches against bottom-six teams. D. Moscow have drawn the first half in 7/10 home matches.
  • Very inconsistent to date from Dinamo Moscow who are strong favourites today.
  • But 4 clean sheets in 6 matches suggests where their strengths may lie.
  • 3 defeats in 4 at home is poor stuff though. Only 1 over 2.5 goals match all season.
  • 2 wins in 3 for Ufa, includes victory v Zenit St Petersburg, last year's Champions
  • 3-2 loss, 0-0 and 1-0 loss for Ufa away this season.
  • 3 UFA wins did come at home.
  • A messy match early in the season here. There is nothing about Dinamo Moscow's current form to have me rushing in at 1.67 odds. Ufa's wins though have come at home. Do remember those clean sheets for Dinamo Moscow. Does this suggest that they will be difficult to score 2 goals against? If so, then lay Ufa if Ufa score first?

SWEDISH ALLSVENSKAN

18:00 - Djurgardens v Helsingborgs - 1.32 Djurgardens

  • Match outcome: Djurgarden have won 7/9 home matches against bottom-half teams while Helsingborg have lost 7/11 away matches. Helsingborg have lost the first half in 7/11 away matches.

Djurgardens (3rd)

  • Only 3 defeats, 2 came away and one came last away match.
  • 3 consecutive home wins.
  • No defeat in 7 at home.Scored in those 7.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of their last 3 at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home but none at fulltime.
  • Only 1 home loss v 1st.
  • 2+ goals scored in all bar 2 at home.

Helsingborgs (11th)

  • Only 1 win in 7 came last match, at home.
  • 3 defeats in 4 away.
  • No win in 5 away.
  • All defeats away v the top 7.
  • Have yet to score that 2nd goal away.
  • 6 of 7 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • The market looks right here.
  • Do note if 0-0 at halftime, we expect 2nd half goals.
  • If Helsingborgs score first, they look layable. Where is that 2nd goal away? And remember that Djurgardens tend to score 2 goals at least at home. A solid foundation for us to be with the home side.

18:00 - AFC Utd v Elfsborg - 1.98 Elfsborg

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 7/8 IF Elfsborg away matches against bottom-six teams and +3.5 goals in 6/11 IF Elfsborg such matches. AFC United have drawn the first half in 3/5 home matches against bottom-half teams.

AFC Utd (15th)

  • 6 losses in 7 matches.
  • 3 consecutive home defeats.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • 2+ goals conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Conceded last 9 and last 7 away.
  • 2+ goals conceded last 4.
  • 2 home wins v 6th and 13th.
  • 1-0 loss v Elfsborg earlier this season.
  • 14 of 20 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Elfsborg (9th)

  • 2 wins and a draw last 3 matches.
  • 4 losses in 5 matches away.
  • Only 3 clean sheets all season.
  • Conceded last 10 and last 11 away.
  • Only 1 loss home and away v 8th and lower.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 of those matches v 8th and lower.

Conclusions

  • If Elfsborg continue their pattern for scoring and conceding v 8th and lower, and tending to not lose, then we have an angle in, don't we, if AFC score first?
  • And it is possible Elfsborg will concede. Only 3 clean sheets. let's hope they concede 1st as I will lay AFC.

TURKISH SUPER LIG

18:00 - Alanyaspor v Fenerbahce - 2.38 Fenerbahce

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 12/18 Alanyaspor home matches while Fenerbahce have drawn the first half in 10/18 away matches. Fenerbahce have conceded first in 10/13 away matches.
  • Another market which suggests it's too tough to call early on this season.
  • 3 wins Alanyaspor sees them top of the tree to date.
  • 2 wins and a 1-1 draw for Fenerbahce this season. Both teams have scored in their last 2 matches.
  • 1-0 and and 2-0 loss for Alanyaspor v Fenerbahce last season.
  • Little for me to work with here given both sides have started on an unbeaten footing.

FRENCH LIGUE 2

19:45 - Lens v Chateauroux - 1.52 Lens

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 9/12 RC Lens home matches against bottom-six teams while Chateauroux have drawn the first half in 6/8 away matches against middle-third teams. Chateauroux have drawn 5/8 away matches against middle-third teams.
  • I don't normally venture into this league but it's a relatively quiet Monday.
  • Only 1 clean sheet for Lens this season. they have failed to score in only 1 match.
  • 2-0 win and 1-3 loss for Lens at home.
  • Lens have not won their last 4 matches yet are strong favourites today.
  • They conceded 2 goals at least in their last 3 matches.
  • Chateauroux have not won this season. They have not scored this season. IS that why Lens odds are so short given their relatively poor start to the season.
  • If Chateauroux score, will they really follow up with a 2nd goal?

DANISH SUPERLIGA

18:00 - Silkeborg v OB - 1.82 OB

  • -2.5 goals: Bottom-six promoted teams have had -2.5 goals in 54% of home matches against top-half teams since 2014-15. There have been -2.5 goals in 8/9 Odense away matches against promoted teams. Odense have drawn 6/10 away matches against promoted teams.

Silkeborg (14th)

  • No win. 3 score draws in their last 4 matches.
  • No clean sheets.
  • Conceded 2 goals at least in all 8 matches.
  • 6 of 9 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

OB (8th)

  • Failed to score in their last 3 matches. 2 consecutive 0-0's.
  • 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.

Conclusions

  • I would lay any late 0-0 here. These sequences cannot continue.
  • Silkeborg are highly likely to concede - in fact they keep conceding 2 goals. So really if they score first, they look layable.