DRT Daily Research Bulletin, October 16, 2017
European competition and post International Break played a big part this weekend in the under-performance of some teams. Chelsea, Arsenal, Juventus, Napoli, (nearly) PSG, Dynamo Kiev, Everton. I do not think the matches today warrant a live chat. This is European Competition week and hopefully we see some Champions League and Europa League trading action.
DANISH SUPERLIGA (stretching it a bit with the word 'super')
18:00 - AGF v Lyngby - 2.12 AGF
- 0-0 and 0-1 Lyngby in the last 2 head to heads.
- This is 9th v 10th after 11 matches played.
- 2 consecutive home defeats.
- Unreadable form. loss v 2nd at home, beats 3rd, loss v 4th, beats 5th. No rhythm or rhyme to their performances.
- No away win yet. scored and conceded in 4 of 5 matches away v top 8.
- 3 3-1 scorelines in their last 4 matches.
- Only 1 clean sheet.
- On a quiet day I thought I would check out some peripheral leagues and it turns out that Monday is the day for matches deemed unreadable!
- Here we have an AGF team all over the shop. Winning v one top 5 team , losing against another. No form there at all.
- They meet a Lyngby with 3 3-1 scorelines in 4 matches (2 were wins at home), but with no away win yet and conceding regularly.
- On form, we may see both teams score with Lyngby not winning, but then again this is AGF - AGF the Unreadable!
18:00 - Sarpsborg v Stabaek - 1.68 Sarpsborg
- 1-2 Sarpsborg and 3-0 Stabaek in the last 2 head to heads.
- This is 3rd v 9th.
- A chance to go 2nd with a win, as matches are running out in the season.
- Only 4 defeats, 3 of which came away from home.
- Only 1 home loss was v Rosenborg.
- Only 2 defeats since 7th May 2017.
- 2 goals scored at least in all bar 2 home matches v teams 5th and lower.
- Only 5 clean sheets.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime in the last 15 matches.
- Conceded in each of their last 8 matches overall and last 9 away.
- 3-1 and 5-0 defeats away to teams on either side of Sarpsborg in the league.
- 12 goals in total scored and conceded in the last 15 minutes of the first half of away matches.
- Steps back in amazement! A readable match on a Monday.
- It does all point to Sarpsborg scoring 2 goals at least in what is likely to be a home win. I say likely because Stabaek have had a couple of 2-2's away recently.
- I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market and go in again if still 0-0 at 30 mins mark. An amazing 12 goals scoring and conceded in the last 15 mins of 1st half away matches for Stabaek.
- A motivated home team as well could go 2nd. I am with the home side all the way today in what is likely to be my only match of interest this Messy Monday.
ITALIAN SERIA A
19:45 - Hellas Verona v Benevento - 1.95 Verona
- These 2 teams have only met in Italian Seria B recently. Both newly promoted.
- No win this season.
- 3 defeats and a 0-0 at home.
- Failed to score in 5 of their last 7 matches.
- Failed to score in their last 3 at home.
- 11 goals conceded and 1 goal scored at home this season.
- All defeats.
- Like Verona, have failed to score in 5 of their last 7 matches.
- I do think I should re-name it 'Messy Monday'.
- 2 newly promoted sides will be eyeing this as a must-win 3 pointers. Neither side has met any newly promoted sides so we cannot gauge how they will fare today.
- Both sides have failed to score in 5 of 7 matches, and against established Italian Seria A teams.
- The market as quoted Verona as 1.95 favourites, but on what basis?
- This is a match to avoid, or at best to trade via the in-play stats available at www.williamhill.com or www.flashscore.com.
ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE
20:00 - Leicester v West Brom - 2.02 Leicester
- A series of 4 both teams scoring over 2.5 goals matches ended with a 0-1 Leicester last match.
- Only 1 win came at home v Brighton.
- Leicester have had a very tough opening set of fixtures against the likes of Arsenal, Man Utd, Chelsea and Liverpool.
- Their win, and 2 draws, came against other sides.
- 2-1-2 scored at home, even against loftier opposition.
- No 0-0 at halftime at home.
- Only 2 defeats came in their last 2 away matches.
- 1-1-0 scored away.
- A messy Monday match. For me there are not enough form lines in which to come up with trading angles.
- It must be remembered too that Leicester's form is skewed somewhat by the fact they have played 4 of the big 6 teams already. Still they have scored 2-1-2 goals at home and that may be their saving grace this evening.
SPANISH LA LIGA
20:00 - Las Palmas v Celta Vigo - 2.52 Las Palmas
- We saw a lot of these odds this weekend. i.e. the market cannot split the teams.
- 3-3 and 3-1 Celta in the last 2 head to heads.
- No draw, sees all defeats bar 2 wins v Malaga and Ath Bilbao.
- Only scored more than 2 goals in a match once.
- Failed to score in their last 3 matches.
- 4 consecutive 0-0's at halftime have not ended 0-0 at fulltime.
- Both teams scored in 5 of 7 matches.
- 2 2-1 defeats and a 0-4 win away.
- 4-3 goals scored in their last 2 matches.
- Scored in every match.
- No 0-0 at halftime.
- Another for the messy Monday club.
- Strictly on ability to score, I would have to side with Celta Vigo. Their 7 goals in 2 matches plays Las Palmas failure to score in 3 matches.
- Siding with the team which tends to score has proved fruitful this weekend in matches where the market could not split the teams.
- Contrasting halftime scores. If 0-0 at halftime, it does look like there will be 2nd half goals. Look at Las Palmas last 4 matches.
- If Las Palmas score first, lay them. They have only scored 2 goals a game or more, only once and Celta are used to both teams scoring.