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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, March 16, 2015

6pm - Fiorentina v AC Milan  - 1.82 home

Standout Stats

  • A strange set of head to heads. The away teams tend to perform well. 3 consecutive Fiorentina wins when they have been at Milan. 2-2 and 0-2 in the last 2 head to heads at Fiorentina.
  • This is 5th v 10th in Seria A

Fiorentina

  • No defeat in 6 at home
  • Scored and conceded in their last 5 at home.
  • 2 losses at home v 3rd and 4th.
  • Unbeaten v teams below them in the league at home
  • Lost only 1 match home and away v teams below them in the league.
  • Only 2 losses in their last 15 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 9 matches.
  • Only 1 loss in 9 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet in 12 matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home
  • Conceded only 2 goals at home in the first half.

AC Milan

  • No win in 8 away matches.
  • Have not beaten any teams above them away with 3 losses and 3 draws.
  • Only 2 wins away v 13th and 20th
  • 3 draws in their last 4 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 6 matches.
  • Both teams have scored in 75% of away matches.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • AC Milan have not beaten any team above them in the league so Fiorentina are favoured today despite the head to heads saying the away team tends not to lose
  • Lay AC Milan if they score first today.
  • Both teams to score has an above average chance today.
  • Fiorentina have the better recent form and with AC Milan having troubles away, I will be on Fior's side..
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6pm - Torino v Lazio  - 2.54 away

Standout Stats

  • Lazio are unbeaten in the last 3 head to heads. Torino have only scored 1-1-1 in the last 3 head to heads, winning 2 1-0 and losing 1-3 latest.
  • This is 9th v 3rd in Seria A

Torino

  • No defeat in 6 at home
  • Scored in their last 9 matches and last 6 at home
  • 3 wins and 2 draws v teams above them in the league.
  • Only 2 home losses were 0-1.
  • Only 1 loss in 13 matches came last match away to Udinese.
  • Only 2 0-0's at home
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home
  • 10 of 15 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Lazio Roma

  • 4 match winning streak, 2 away
  • No draw in 8 matches.
  • Scored in their last 6 matches.
  • No goal conceded in 2 away matches.
  • Have scored 2+ goals away v 2nd, 6th, 7th, 10th, 12th, 20th.
  • 3 clean sheets in their last 4 matches.
  • Only 1 loss in 6 aways came v an own goal for the team beating them.
  • Only 1 0-0 away
  • Scored10 goals in each half away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • The odds suggest that the market cannot split these 2 teams. It is tough to call as Torino are undefeated in 6 at home, and are unbeaten at home v teams above them in the league. They have only 1 loss in 13 so recent form is strong.
  • With Lazio, they have scored 2 goals recently away to Inter Milan and Roma. If Lazio go 0-2 up today, I will lay them as they have thrown away 0-2 leads away.
  • I would not be surprised if this was 0-0 at halftime and would lay the 0-0 in the 2nd half.
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7pm - FC Oss v Waalwijk  - 1.39 home

Standout Stats

  • Only 1 recent head to head was a 0-4 Oss away win.
  • This is 5th v 20th in the Eerste Divisie . I think Waalwijk will go down now. They are adrift. A win today sees them still bottom.

FC Oss

  • 4 match winning streak
  • No defeat in 5 overall and in 7 at home.
  • Scored in their last 28 matches
  • No goal conceded in their last 2 home matches.
  • 6 wins and a 2-2 draw at home v 11th and lower.
  • Unbeaten in 7 at home. 6 wins in their last 7 at home
  • No 0-0

Waalwijk

  • No win in 12 away
  • Conceded in their last 8 away and last 9
  • Only 1 away win v 12th 2-3
  • Have lost to all top 6 sides away
  • 7 losses and a draw in their last 8 away matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Motivation v lack of motivation today I feel. Oss still have something to play for. You feel Waalwijk will win ALL future matches to have a chance of staying up, but a win today will still see them bottom.
  • Oss are likely to score  so lay Waawlijk should they score the opener.
  • Given Waalwijk tend to concede  2+ goals away, take a chance on a halftime goal by laying the 0-0 halftime score.
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7pm - Jong Ajax v Fortuna Sittard  - 1.41 home

Standout Stats

  • 2 consecutive Ajax wins in the Eerste Divisie
  • This is 10th v 19th of 20

Jong Ajax

  • Scored and conceded in their last 2 at home
  • Only 2 losses at home v 4th and 16th.
  • All wins at home saw them scoring 3+ goals.
  • Scored 2+ goals v all teams in the bottom 5 home and away.
  • Scored and conceded in 10 of their last 12 home matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • 80% over 2.5 goals at home
  • Only 1 0-0 at home

Fortuna Sittard

  • 7 matches losing streak, 4 away
  • Only 1 win v 15th and higher home and away.
  • Failed to score away v 5th, 8th, 9th, 11th, 12th, 13th, 15th.
  • Failed to score in 6 of their last 8 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Fortuna sittard are statistically unlikely to win today, only 1 win v 15th and higher suggests struggles, as does failing to score in 6 of their last 8 matches.
  • If Jong Ajax click, they could score 3 goals.  Back Ajax if Sittard score first.
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7pm - NEC Nijmegen v Volendam  - 1.47 home

Standout Stats

  • Only 1 recent relevant head to head was a 0-2 NEC win
  • This is 1st v 4th in the Dutch Eerste Divisie

NEC

  • Only 2 losses this season
  • 14 match winning streak at home. 9 match winning streak overall.
  • 3 consecutive clean sheets, and 2 at home
  • Scored 3+ goals in 11 home matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 14 wins in their last 15 matches.
  • No 0-0

Volendam

  • Have scored in their last 27 matches
  • No win in 3 away matches
  • Losses away v 2nd, 3rd, 6th and 8th.
  • In those defeats, Volendam scored
  • Scored and conceded in 8 of their last 9 away matches.
  • No 0-0

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Both teams to score stands out here.And I would lay the team leading 2-0. I think Volendam are vulnerable to the top teams away but tend to score, hence laying the team 2-0 up.
  • In the expectation of goals, lay the 0-0 halftime score. It's normally good for NEC.
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7pm - Sparta Rotterdam v Achilles 29  - 1.38 home

Standout Stats

  • 3 wins and a 1-1 draw Sparta in head to heads.
  • This is 9th v 17th in the Dutch Eerste Divisie

Sparta Rotterdam

  • No draw in 8 at home
  • Top 5 spot potentially with a win today
  • 3 losses at home v 4th, 13th and 14th.
  • 7 clean sheets at home
  • 4 losses in 5 matches.
  • 6 wins and 2 losses in 8 home matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home

Achilles 29

  • Only 2 away wins.
  • No win in 7 away matches
  • Conceded in their last 7 and last 4 away
  • Have not beaten any team away from them 10th and above.
  • It's when they keep clean sheets away ( only 4 times) that they get something out of away matches.
  • Only 1 win in 11 aways.
  • A run of 6 matches with both teams scoring ended with a 1-0 loss.
  • Only 2 0-0's away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • No draw in 8 at home for Sparta suggests home win or away win and you know which way the market is leaning!
  • Achilles' profile is not good away -they have not beaten any top 10 side away so I would lay Achilles if they score first today.
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8pm - Roma v Sampdoria  - 1.69 home

Standout Stats

  • 4 consecutive clean sheets for Roma in head to heads. The last match was a 0-0 at Sampdoria.
  • This is 2nd v 6th in Seria A and Roma are 14 points shy of Juventus.

Roma

  • 16 matches without defeat, 13 at home
  • 6 match drawing streak at home
  • Have scored 2 goals + in 9 home matches.
  • 8 draws in their last 9 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home
  • 2 0-0's at home
  • Scored 24 goals and conceded 8 goalsat home
  • Scored first in 7 of 13 home matches.

Sampdoria

  • 2 match winning streak
  • Scored in their last 9 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 3 away matches.
  • Losses away v 4th, 7th, 9th and 16th.
  • Only 1 win away v 12th and higher was a 0-1 win for Genoa.
  • 2 consecutive wins v Atalanta and Cagliari.
  • Only 1 0-0 away , and 5 0-0's at halftime away
  • Opponents have scored in 8 of 13 away matches.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Roma must end this draw sequence if they are to attempt to challenge Juventus at the top of the league.
  • I am going to lay the late draw with Roma until they end this run of draws. Needs must for them, leaking points.
  • If Sampdoria score first, then, lay them. Roma have not lost in 13 at home.
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8pm - Swansea v Liverpool  - 2.04 away

Standout Stats

  • Liverpool are unbeaten in 6 head to heads. 3 consecutive home wins for Liverpool. 0-0 and 2-2 in the last 2 head to heads at Swansea
  • This is 9th v 5th in the Premier League

Swansea

  • Have scored and conceded in their last 2 home matches.
  • At home, have lost to 1st, 6th and 7th and playing 5th today.
  • Swansea did beat Arsenal and Man Utd 2-1
  • No 0-0 at home
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home
  • Scored first in 1/2 of home matches.
  • 3 of their last 4 losses came away. The home loss was v Chelsea.

Liverpool

  • 4 match winning streak
  • No defeat in 12 matches and in 5 away
  • Have not conceded on their last 5 away matches
  • Only 1 away draw.
  • Losses away v 2nd,4th, 10th, 11th, 12th.
  • Have scored 2+ goals in 9 of their last 12 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 away
  • Have scored first in 7 of 13 away matches.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Liverpool have the best of it in head to heads but do struggle when visiting Swansea.
  • In Swansea's favour, they have beaten Arsenal and Man Utd 2-1 at home which is impressive. Liverpool for their part have kept 5 consecutive clean sheets away from home.
  • Both teams tend to score first in only 1/2 of their home/away matches.  I would personally favour Liverpool today and given they have a 50/50 chance of conceding first, I'd lay Swansea if they scored first.
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