Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

What a cautious weekend, and for good reason. Pre-Europa League, Pre-Champions League teams clearly were impacted this weekend. The usual litany of old Reliables dropped like flies, Benfica, Villareal, Olympiakos, Milan, Liverpool, Man Utd, Dortmund. So matches I would usually confidently play, I decided not to. Money saved is money earned.

I will do a review/preview video at DRT Facebook. Bayern Munich and Chelsea are the 2 sides with Champions League football upcoming next week. Will this curse continue with these 2 really strong favourites?


ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

18:00 - West Ham v Sheff Utd - 1.82 West Ham

West Ham - 6th

  • The last 4 losses came v Liverpool (twice), Man Utd and Chelsea. Sheff Utd do not fit that criteria!
  • 5 wins, a loss v Liverpool and a 0-0 v Fulham recently.
  • Scored in their last 10 at home.
  • Only 1 loss at home v 8th and lower. Win v 18th, Win v 19th at home.
  • 0-1 win last head to head.
  • 11/14 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Sheffield United - 20th

  • 3 2-1 scorelines last 4 matches. 2 were wins.
  • 1-2 win v Man Utd stands out away recently but followed by a 1-0 loss v Man City.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Conceded in their last 5 and last 11 away.
  • All defeats v 3rd - 14th home and away.

Conclusions

  • No European club competition to worry about for these 2. Sheff Utd are winning, it must be noted but this West Ham side tend only to lose to the established top 6 and on that basis should edge what may be a tight match today 1-0, 2-1. That is my expectation here. Certainly I'd lay Sheff Utd if they score first.
  • West Ham matches have a strong 2nd half goal bias so lay any 2nd half 0-0.
  • Match outcome: West Ham have won 12/16 home matches against bottom-six teams while Sheffield Utd have lost 7/8 away matches against top-six teams. Sheffield Utd have lost by two or more goals in 5/8 away matches against top-six teams.

20:00 - Chelsea (Champions League 24th Feb) v Newcastle - 1.26 Chelsea

Chelsea

  • We must hope that Chelsea will not have one eye on a Champions League match in 9 days' time. It sort of affected the likes of Atl Madrid who play on a similar date, took the lead, then let it slip before winning.
  • Solid defensively under Mr. Tickle. 3 clean sheets and a 1-2 win v Sheff United. These are the only matches we can focus on under new management.
  • 0-0, 1-0, 1-0, 1-0 for Chelsea under Tuckel at halftime.
  • On the 2 occasions Chelsea scored 2 goals, they scored first half and second half.

Newcastle

  • A run of 5 consecutive defeats ended with a win, loss, win. Wins v Everton and Southampton saw Newcastle score 2 and 3 goals which is what they were threatening in 2 recent 1-2 losses v Leeds and Crystal Palace.
  • 5 consecutive away losses ended with a win v Everton.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away, none at fulltime.
  • 90% of goals scored and 65% of goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Following the in-play stats, Newcastle have been threatening 2 goals in their 1-2 defeats and suddenly got them in wins v Everton and Southampton. Tuckel will have to factor this goals potential in today.
  • Limited matches under Mr. Tickle. But small patterns. 3 Win/Win halftime fulltime matches. 3 1-0 leads by halftime. 3 clean sheets.
  • The market is emphatic. Now the question we have to ask is 'Will a 9 days hence Champions League match be playing on Chelsea's minds, maybe subconsciously, here?' If yes, leave this match alone as we left Villareal, Benfica alone. If no, then the market looks right IF that Chelsea defence can quell Newcastle's new found goals habit.
  • Newcastle have had a lot of 0-0's at halftime. Note that.

SPANISH LA LIGA

20:00 - Cadiz v Athletic Bilbao - 2.12 Atletico Bilbao

Cadiz - 15th

  • Newly promoted.
  • Only 2 wins since 7th November 2020.
  • A draw and 3 losses last 4 matches.
  • Draw, Win, Draw, Loss at home recently. 2-4 loss v Atl Madrid.
  • 2+ goals scored last 3 at home.
  • 0-1 win last head to head.
  • Only 1 home win v the top 14.

Atletico Bilbao - 11th

  • No win in 8 away matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 and last 6 away matches.
  • Conceded last 10 away.
  • Only 1 away win v 17th.
  • 75% of goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • If Cadiz keep scoring 2 goals at home, that might give them a way in here v an Atletico Bilbao with only 1 win away. This could be tighter than the odds suggest. I have no strong angle here but we could see both teams to score come in given Cadiz's recent scoring run at home.

ITALIAN SERIA A

19:45 - Verona v Parma - 2.18 Verona

Verona - 9th

  • 3 defeat in 4 matches came away from home.
  • 2 consecutive home wins includes v Napoli.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 5 home matches.
  • 1-0 loss to Parma last head to head.
  • Unbeaten at home v 11th and lower.
  • 7/10 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Parma - 19th

  • 8 losses and a 1-1 last 9 matches.
  • Failed to score in 8 of their last 10 matches.
  • No win in 12 and in 5 away.
  • Conceded in their last 9 and last 10 away.
  • Only 1 away win.

Conclusions

  • 2 consecutive home wins for Verona, including v Napoli must give them confidence against a Parma failing to score in 8 of their last 10 matches. That is how I will enter the match, with an expectation that Verona at home will be able to continue their momentum.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

19:30 - Bayern Munich (24th Feb Champions League) v Arminia Bielefeld - 1.16 Bayern

  • Bayern have scored 2+ goals in each of their last 5 home matches.
  • They have scored and conceded in their last 6 home matches.
  • Bayern have scored in their last 20 matches.
  • 1st v 16th. Bayern have 100% wins home and away v 13th and lower.
  • They have scored 4+ goals in 4 wins v 12th and lower at home.
  • Bielefeld have not beaten a top 9 side home or away. They have though scored and conceded in all matches v the top 5 . 1-4 loss last head to head.
  • Angles. Will Bayern be distracted? They shouldn't be. Newly promoted Arminia are there for the taking for an undistracted Bayern side. 3+ goals expected. Bayern are yet to have a 0-0 at halftime so should score before halftime.

PORTUGUESE PRIMEIRA LIGA

20:15 - Sporting Lisbon v Pacos Ferreira - 1.47 Sporting

Sporting Lisbon - 1st

  • Unbeaten. No Europa League or Champions League distractions unlike Benfica and Braga.
  • 4 consecutive wins.
  • Scored in all matches.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • 0-2 win v Pacos earlier.
  • 9 goals scored at home last 15 mins of home matches.

Pacos Ferreira - 5th

  • 6 wins and 3 draws last 9 matches.
  • 3 consecutive away wins.
  • Scored in their last 7 away matches.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of their last 3 away matches.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime away, none at fulltime.
  • Not played top 3 away.
  • Lost away to 4th and 6th.

Conclusions

  • Pacos are in excellent form but then so are unbeaten Sporting Lisbon. Pacos lost the last head to head but have scored 2+ goals last 3 away matches. Their losses away v 4th and 6th might suggest this recent excellent form has come outside of the top 5.
  • Lay any 2nd half 0-0 and remember Sporting do a lot of scoring 75th-90th minute. Remember that if they need a goal come that time period.