Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

A quiet day today. Arsenal have a touch of the Chelseas about them, regarding their away form. Atalanta look solid v Empoli, on form. But remember Empoli beat Napoli recently. Leganes are unbeaten v the top 12 at home, with 1-1 draws generally v the top 6 making for a tough task for Real Madrid.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

20:00 - Watford v Arsenal - 2.28 Arsenal

Watford (10th)

  • Watford's 4 losses this year all came away.
  • 3 consecutive home wins.
  • Solid v 7th and lower at home. Only one defeat. But v top 6 home and away, all defeats bar 1. Where does 6th placed Arsenal sit?
  • 16 of 23 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Arsenal ( 6th)

  • 11 of Arsenal's last 12 goals scored came at home.
  • 1-1-1-1-2-1-0 goals scored away. The 2? v Huddersfield.
  • Conceded in their last 15 away matches.
  • Woeful away record v top 11 - no win yet 1-0 loss v 9th and 11th.

Conclusions

  • I would love to put forward an angle here but this is messy. Watford - will they revert to all losses bar 1 v top 6 home or away or fit 6th place Arsenal into their solid home form v 7th and lower?
  • Will Arsenal continue to fail to beat the top 11? Particularly 1-0 losses v 9th and 11th. We saw with Chelsea v top 9 yesterday that their form was emphatically poor and that continued. Will this be the case for Arsenal v another top 11 side?
  • Remember Arsenal have conceded in their last 15 away.

ITALIAN SERIA A

19:30 - Atalanta v Empoli - 1.39 Atalanta

Atalanta (6th)

  • 4 wins and 2 draws in their last 6 matches.
  • Scored in their last 11 matches. Scored and conceded in their last 7 at home.
  • In 7/8 matches v the bottom 5, scored 2+ goals.

Empoli (18th)

  • Only 3 wins since 16th December 2018 came at home.
  • 7 losses in 8 away matches.
  • No win in 15 away.
  • Conceded in their last 13 away.
  • 100% defeats away v the top 11.

Conclusions

  • Another emphatic match on paper. Expectation for 2/3 goals from Atalanta....that is unless Empoli have some survival hope heroics in them today.

SPANISH LA LIGA

20:00 - Leganes v Real Madrid - 1.7 Real Madrid

Leganes (13th)

  • 2 wins and a draw is edging Leganes away from the relegation spots.
  • Superb record v the top 12 at home. UNBEATEN!! Albeit 6 score draws, 4 1-1 v the top 6.
  • 9 of 12 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Real Madrid (3rd)

  • 4 wins in 5.
  • 5 consecutive away wins ended v Valencia.
  • scored and conceded last 7 away.
  • only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • only 1 defeat away v 9th and lower sees 7 wins, a loss and a draw.

Conclusions

  • An intriguing affair. Leganes unbeaten at home v the top 12. Who'd have thunk it? But 4 1-1 draws v the top 6 may suggest laying Leganes if they score first. At their best, Real Madrid have 2 goals in them.
  • Note the Leganes conceding in the 2nd half (if they lead halftime or 0-0 halftime).