Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

A very frustrating Sunday. Tough-to-read matches (favourites at 2.4 odds or higher), matches kicking off at different times (prefer Saturday's multiple kick-offs at 15:00). It made for a quick live chat. It's a typically quiet Monday. Thankfully this week, the Germans, Italians, and Dutch return to flesh out the coupons.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

20:00 - Man City v Wolves - 1.18 Man City

Man City (2nd)

  • 3 losses this season came within the last 6 matches. Only the one home loss was v Crystal Palace 2-3.
  • Both teams have scored in 9 of their last 11 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • No draw in 13 matches and in 11 at home.
  • Conceded in their last 8 matches and last 6 at home.
  • 2+ goals scored at home in each of their last 11 home matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 2-1, 3-1, 3-1 , 3-1 at home v the top 12.
  • Scored first in 11/11 at home.
  • Led at halftime at home in 8/11 matches.

Wolves (11th)

  • Only 1 win in 4 matches.
  • 2 wins and a draw last 3 away. Beat Tottenham 1-3 last away match.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 5 away matches.
  • 1-3 away v 3rd, 1-1 v 5th and 1-1 v 6th.
  • 8 of 11 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • My knee-jerk reaction? Man City's odds are too short against a Wolves coming off the back of a 1-3 win v Tottenham and v the top 6 away, unbeaten scoring and conceding.
  • Look at the consistency of City home wins v the top 12. It may give us an insight into possible correct scores? 2-1, 3-1?
  • The value of course is to lay Man City if Man City scores first and/or keep at 1-0 for a while. Remember Wolves scored 3 very late goals v Tottenham, keeping them to 1-0.
  • Man City are, though, expected on form to score 2 goals at least at home.
  • Man City lead at halftime in 8/11 at home. Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market?

SPANISH LA LIGA

20:00 - Sociedad v Espanyol - 2.08 Sociedad

  • 1-2 Sociedad, 1-1, 2-1 Espanyol.

Sociedad (12th)

  • 4 defeats in a row ended with a win away v Real Madrid.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime at home (25% of matches).
  • Not beaten a top 14 team at home.
  • 1-0-0-0-0-1 goals scored in those matches.

Espanyol (9th)

  • 6 losses in their last 7 matches.
  • 3 consecutive away defeats.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime away.
  • All defeats this season have come v top 8.
  • Not played 7th-13th away.
  • 11 of 13 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
  • 7 of 8 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Both teams tend to score in head to heads.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on the stats.
  • Sociedad's poor scoring v the top 14 leads me to want to lay them if they score first.
  • Espanyol tend only to lose v the top 8. If that continues, favour them not to lose. Espanyol could lead 1st half so note that.

COPPA ITALIA

16:30 - Cagliari v Atalanta - 1.98 Atalanta

  • 2 Seria A sides. We saw with Lazio recently, a preference for a 'gap in leagues'. It makes the matches more readable.
  • Both teams scored in 5/6 coppa matches for Cagliari. Will that continue? 3 consecutive 2-1 scorelines, a loss and 2 wins.
  • Only 1 loss in 9 at home in the Coppa for Cagliari. both teams scored in 5 of their last 6 matches at home.
  • 2 consecutive defeats for Atalanta in the Coppa were 1-0 v Juventus. Prior to those defeats, 2 2-1 wins v Sassuolo and Napoli.
  • 6 defeats in 7 away for Atalanta.
  • Not a match to dwell upon. If you wanted a play, 2-1/1-2 are possibles. Look at the both teams to score patterns in the Coppa.

20:00 - Roma v Virtus Entella - 1.16 Roma

  • This is the kind of gap in leagues I like to see in the Coppa.
  • Virtus Entella are Seria C. Remember what Lazio did to a Seria C side? 4-1.
  • Roma losses in the Coppa have exclusively come v Italian Seria A sides.
  • When Virtus have met a Seria A side, they lost 5-0 and 3-0. A 2-2 v Genoa was eye-catching. 2 Genoa penalties.
  • In the last 2 days, I have showcased 1.16 shots. And in both matches (PSG and Frosinone), the scorelines were 0-0 at halftime, 3-0 fulltime. This is what is expected of a 1.16 shot. So note that, I tend to go 3-0, 3-1, any other home score if 0-0 at halftime.