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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, August 14, 2017

Futbol24 off the Christmas List. They put up a 3-2 Juventus last night. I put forth laying Lazio 0-2 up and backing Juventus 0-2 down at odds of 30. Futbol24 got it wrong. It was 2-3 Lazio. It was a nice ending to the session with a really solid set of shouts including a Barcelona v Real Madrid both teams to score - it was 0-0 at halftime, 1-3 at fulltime. I hope you loaded up. A quieter day today. Some very familiar names in Benfica, Galatasary, HJK, are well worth following. I don't tend to do a live chat on a Monday. I do not get weekends off and like to have Monday as my weekend, but hey, if I am online, I will be tweeting.

PORTUGEUSE PRIMERA LIGA

19:00 - Estoril Praia v Guimaraes - 2.46 Guimaraes

  • 0-2 Guimaraes and 3-3 in the last 2 head to heads.
  • 1st goal: Estoril have conceded first in 9/12 home matches while Vitoria S.C. have won 8/12 away matches against middle-third teams.
  • Vitoria S.C. have scored first in 7/8 away matches against middle-third teams.
  • Estoril lost 4-0 to Porto. Guimaraes won 3-2 in their opener. 2 late concessions made the match tighter than it should have been.
  • No strong angles for me. I like focus on Braga, Benfica (below), Porto and Sporting Lisbon in this league.

21:00 - Chaves v Benfica - 1.44 Benfica

  • Benfica tends to win head to heads, and comfortably.
  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 12/17 Chaves home matches and they have drawn the first half in 7/12 home matches.
  • Benfica have won 10/13 away matches against middle-third teams.
  • Benfica won their opener, and Chaves lost v Guimaraes.
  • We should expect Benfica to win and possibly even score 3 goals today.

SWEDISH ALLSVENSKAN

18:00 - Elfsborg v IFK Goteborg - 2.1 Elfsborg

  • 3 consecutive score draws in head to heads.
  • This is 9th v 10th.
  • There have been +2.5 goals in 8/10 IF Elfsborg home matches against bottom-half teams and +3.5 goals in 8/14 IFK Goteborg away matches.
  • IFK Goteborg have conceded first in 10/14 away matches against top-half teams.

Elfsborg

  • Only 2 losses in 11 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • 4 consecutive home wins ended with a loss last home match.
  • All losses bar one came v top 4 teams.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals.
  • 9 of 11 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

IFK

  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • No draw in 7 away matches.
  • All losses came away.

Conclusions

  • I would have to side with Elfsborg today. IFK's losses tend to come away from home. I would lay IFK if IFK scores first.
  • Elfsborg could score 2+ goals today.

18:00 - Hacken v Sundsvall - 1.55 Hacken

  • 0-0 and 1-2 Hacken in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 7th v 14th in the Swedish Allsvenskan.
  • There have been +3.5 goals in 11/20 BK Hacken home matches and +2.5 goals in 10/11 GIF Sundsvall away matches against top-six teams.
  • There have been +2.5 goals in 10/13 BK Hacken home matches against bottom-six teams.

Hacken

  • All Hacken wins came v teams 10th and lower. We should expect a win more than anything else on that basis.
  • Wins v 14th and 15th have been 2-1.

Sundsvall

  • Only 3 wins.
  • Scored and conceded last 3 aways.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 4 away matches.
  • Not beaten a top 7 side home or away.
  • 9 of 12 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Hacken play a side in the part of the league where they collect all of their wins. Sundsvall may score (2 2-1 wins for Hacken v bottom 3) but not win.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. Sundsvall are highly likely to concede 1st half.

TURKISH SUPER LEAGUE

19:45 - Galatasaray v Kayserispor - 1.6 Galatasary

  • 1-1 and 1-2 Kayserispor in the last 2 head to heads.
  • Galatasaray have won by two or more goals in 6/8 home matches against bottom-six teams and they have had W/W double results in 7/11 such matches.
  • Kayserispor have lost 6/9 away matches against top-six teams.
  • 4th last season, Galatasary did not have a draw at home last season.all wins bar 3 at home v teams below them in the league. Kayserispor actually beat Galatasary at home.
  • Only 4 wins away for Kayserispor included a Galatasary win.
  • The market expects Galatasary not to lose today despite last year's Kayserispor win.

FINNISH VEIKKAUSLIIGA

16:30 - Ilves v HIFK - 1.82 Ilves

  • 1-1 and 0-1 Ilves in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 5th v 11th.
  • There have been -2.5 goals in 10/14 Ilves home matches while HIFK have drawn the first half in 6/8 away matches against top-half teams.
  • There have been -2.5 goals in 10/16 HIFK away matches.

Ilves

  • 5 draws in 6 matches.
  • Only 1 loss in 11 matches.
  • Home losses v 7th, 9th and 10th.

HIFK

  • Only 3 wins.
  • No win in 5 away.
  • Only 1 away win v bottom side.

Conclusions

  • On form Ilves are more likely to lose v bottom 1/2 than win but in HIFK they have a team with only 1 win away.
  • 2 poor sides for me that I cannot readily trust in a weak league.

16:30 - VPS v Lahti - 2.46 VPS

  • 1-0 VPS, 0-1 Lahti and 0-0 in the last 3 head to heads.
  • This is 4th v 2nd.
  • VPS Vaasa have scored first in 10/14 home matches against top-half teams while FC Lahti have conceded first in 10/20 away matches.
  • FC Lahti have drawn 5/8 away matches against top-half teams.

VPS

  • Only 2 defeats since 17th April. Did lose their last match.
  • 7 draws in 11 matches so whilst they are not losing, they are not collecting enough wins.
  • No defeat in 6 at home.
  • Scored 2 goals at home v 1st and 3rd.
  • Conceded 1-2-2-3-2 v top 7 teams.

Lahti

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • Unbeaten in 14 matches.
  • 11 of 12 goals scored away came 2nd half.
  • All draws away v top 7 teams.

Conclusions

  • I will back 2-2 here. Why? VPS love draws - 7 in 11;  Lahti has drawn all matches v top 7; VPS conceded 1-2-2-3-2 v top 7 teams and with no defeat in 6 at home might match Lahti. What do you think? Makes sense?

16:30 - HJK Helsinki v RoPS - 1.17 HJK

  • 2-1 and 1-4 HJK in the last 2 head to heads.
  • HJK Helsinki have won by two or more goals in 7/10 home matches against bottom-six teams while RoPS have conceded first in 8/10 away matches.
  • HJK Helsinki have won 12/16 home matches against bottom-six teams.

HJK

  • Only 1 loss.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Unbeaten at home. 8 clean sheets at home.

RoPS

  • Only 3 wins in 13 matches.
  • 3 1-1 draws in the last 4 away.
  • No win in 8 away.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only 1 away win.

Conclusions

  • Expect a home win, scoring 2+ goals from HJK. They could even keep a clean sheet.

16:30 - IFK Mariehamn v KuPS - 2.64 KuPS

  • 2-1 KuPS and 2-1 IFK last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 8th v 3rd.

IFK

  • No win in 6.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • No defeat in 6 at home.
  • 14 of 22 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • Only 1 home loss v 2nd.Draws at home v 1st, 4th, 5th, 6th.

KuPS

  • Only 1 loss in 6 matches.
  • All wins bar 2 came v 9th and lower (play 8th today).

Conclusions

  • The market cannot split these 2 teams. And a cogent argument can be made for either side. IFK only 1 loss at home. KuPS collect wins v 9th and lower and play 8th today.
  • Inplay stats therefore the key or simply do not play.

16:30 - FC Inter v SJK - 2.5 FC Inter

  • 3-2 SJK and 0-3 Inter in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 7th v 6th.
  • There have been -2.5 goals in 10/11 Inter Turku home matches against top-half teams while SJK have drawn the first half in 11/20 away matches.
  • Inter Turku have drawn 7/9 home matches against top-half teams.

FC Inter

  • Only 2 wins in 10 matches.
  • No defeat in 6 at home.
  • Scored in their last 5 at home.
  • Only 2 losses at home.
  • No win v top 8 at home but 5 draws.

SJK

  • Only 1 loss in 6 matches was v HJK.
  • 4 clean sheets in their last 6 matches.
  • No readable away form.

Conclusions

  • A poor league and 2 teams tough to read. Not for me today. Given the draws for FC Inter, you can lay them if they score first. SJK has had good recent form. That is a ready angle.