DRT Daily Research Bulletin, March 13, 2017
The search for value. That's what it's all about. So how to attack a match like Real Madrid v Betis where the market gives little away at 0-1? How about the halftime market? Betis were about evens to lay. Considering any other home score was only 3.4, evens for a team against a 1.12 shot is value in these eyes. Real Madrid scored before halftime.
Sometimes value is in the eye of the beholder! A quiet day today. Lazio eye a top 4 spot against a Torino side with no win v top 15 away. Osasuna are bottom but Eibar score and concede v bottom 6 away and have kept only 1 away clean sheet. Man Utd and Chelsea looks a humdinger but I have no angle here for this high profile match.
19:45 - Lazio v Torino - 1.61 Lazio
- 1-1 and 2-2 in the last 2 head to heads.
- This is 5th v 10th in Italian Seria A.
Lazio 100% stats
- A top 4 spot for Lazio with a win today. Quite an incentive.
- Have conceded in all home matches v top 11.
- Not conceded in both halves at home.
- No 0-0.
Lazio other stats
- Failed to score in only 6 matches, those were all defeats.
- 4 wins and a draw last 5 matches.
- 1-2-0-1-1 scored recent home matches. May be a concern.
- 7 0-0's at halftime at home - half of matches.
- 9 of 11 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
Torino 100% stats
- Lost all away matches v top 7 conceding 2 to 5 goals.
- At least one team has scored 2 goals in matches v top 5 home and away.
- No 1-0 or 0-1 away.
Torino other stats
- Scored and conceded last 6 matches.
- No win in 7 away.
- Not beaten a top 14 team away.
- 14 of 19 goals scored away came 2nd half.
- If Lazio score, they should not lose and in Torino they play a team without a win v top 15 away and conceding, generally, 2 goals at least v top 6 teams.
- Let that be our expectation, but note Lazio have only scored 1-2-0-1-1 goals in recent home matches. I think they will need 2 if they win today. And a win takes them top 4.
- 50% chance of 0-0 at halftime in Lazio home matches.
19:45 - Osasuna v Eibar - 2.1 Eibar
- 2-3 Osasuna in the last Primera Liga head to head. There have been cup matches since.
- This is 20th v 8th in the Spanish Primera Liga.
Osasuna 100% stats
- No home win.
- All defeats at home v top 7.
- All home defeats v top 10.
- Not won to nil this season.
Osasuna other stats
- No win in 18 and in 13 at home.
- Conceded in their last 22 matches.
- Have conceded 2 or more goals in 6 consecutive matches.
- 17 goals conceded last 1/2 hour of home matches.
Eibar 100% stats
- Are poor away from home but unbeaten v bottom 4 away.
- Scored and conceded in away matches v bottom 6 teams.
- No away 0-0.
Eibar other stats
- At least one team has scored at least 2 goals in each of the last 10 matches.
- Conceded 2 goals in 3 of their last 4 away matches.
- Only 1 away clean sheet.
- Osasuna must fancy their chances but are yet to win at home. They beat Eibar 2-3 at Eibar and this type of scoreline would not be a surprise today for an Eibar side with only 1 clean sheet away.
- Note too that both teams tend to score in Eibar matches v bottom 6. I would consider a 3-2 and 2-3 correct score as a trading angle and hope the both teams to score angle continues, and Eibar show the weakness of recent away matches where they have conceded 2 goals in 3 of their last 4 aways.
- Logic does suggest bottom side Osasuna are to be opposed. Would you agree? Both teams to score and Osasuna not to win?
- In expectation for goals, lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
19:45 - Chelsea v Man Utd - 1.92 Chelsea
- I cannot research this FA Cup match. 2 big teams, the Mourinho factor et al suggests an in-play trading play via in-play stats.
- Remember that just because it is a high profile match, if there is no trading angle, don't play!