Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

DRT Daily Research Bulletin, April 13, 2015

As befits a Monday, there are a number of teams on the in-play coupon who would be excellent high scorers in Scrabble, but of little interest to the trader.

Where I mention BANKER below, this signifies those matches where I think the favourites should win. These matches I would personally prioritise as regards DRT.

Remember the strategies:

Lay the 0-0 halftime score in certain signalled matches

Lay the 0-0 2nd half in matches where goals were expected but have not yet materialised

Lay the 2-2 scoreline, especially early on in matches. 2-2 shows us that teams are scoring and conceding.

Lay the away team leading 0-2 before halftime, especially if they are favourites. The home team is usually galvanised by the halftime team talk.

Lay the underdog if they score first in certain matches (especially BANKER matches where I would back the BANKERS if they conceded first at enhanced odds)

Lay the underdog scoring early in the first half, in the HALF TIME market , especially in BANKER matches.

3pm - Qatar U20 v Brazil U20  - Illiquid on Betfair  - BANKER

  • This is a friendly , 1.13 odds with some bookmakers. Illiquid on Betfair but if the betfair markets flesh out, 1.13 odds does suggest 3/4 goals at least and at least a goal before halftime.

3:15pm - Amkar v CSKA Moscow  - 1.44 away BANKER

Standout Stats

  • 4 consecutive wins for CSKA in head to heads  - both teams scored in the last 3.
  • This is 16th ( bottom) v 3rd in Russia.

Amkar

  • Only 3 wins this season.
  • No win in 11 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 3 matches.
  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets all season.
  • No win v top 6 home and away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home

CSKA Moscow

  • No draw in 11 and in 6 away
  • Scored and conceded in their last 3 away matches.
  • 3 consecutive away wins ended with a loss v Zenit.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Only 1 draw all season
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 9 away matches.
  • All losses this season v top 7.
  • Scored 4-4-3 away v 3 of the bottom 5.
  • No 0-0

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Both teams could score today and CSKA not lose.
  • Only 3 seasons for Amkar , no win in 11 matches and only 3 clean sheets all season.
  • Amkar are unlikely to win today. With only 1 draw all season for CSKA , it seems an away win by default. CSKA have scored 4-4-3 away v bottom 5 so expect a convincing enough win.
  • If Amkar score first, back CSKA at enhanced odds.
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6pm - Silkeborg v FC Copenhagen  - 1.59 away

Standout Stats

  • Silkeborg have only 1 win in the last 7 head to heads.
  • This is 12th ( bottom) v 2nd in the Danish top flight.

Silkeborg

  • Have conceded in their last 19 matches and their last 10 at home.
  • No win in 11 at home.
  • 2 consecutive 2-2 draws.
  • Only 2 wins all season came away from home.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 in 14 of their last 15 matches.
  • No home win.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home

Copenhagen

  • Not conceded in their last 2 away
  • No defeat in 4.
  • Only 1 loss in their last 16 matches
  • Only 2 losses away were 0-1
  • 5 clean sheets in their last 6 away matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • I am surprised that Copenhagen are not shorter odds here. Silkeborg are likely to concede at some stage so lay any late 0-0.
  • Lay Silkeborg if they score first.
  • Lay the 0-0 halftime score.
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7:30pm - Perugia v Varese  - 1.48 home

Standout Stats

  • 1-1 in the most recent head to head.
  • This is 8th v bottom in Seria B
  • 8 matches remain in Seria B. Varese are 12 points shy of safety. Perugia could surge up the league to near top 4 with a win

Perugia

  • No defeat in 12 at home
  • 2 0-0's in their last 3 at home
  • Only 1 loss in 9 matches.
  • Only 1 loss at home v 4th . Wins v bottom 5 so could find Varese easy to cope with.3-2-3-1 at home.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime at home ( 47%)
  • Scored first in 10 of 17 matches at home

Varese

  • No win in 10 overall and 4 away
  • Have conceded in their last 7 overall
  • 6 losses and a draw in their last 7 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets
  • No win away v top 9 but did draw v 4th, 5th, and 7th
  • Only 1 win away
  • Only 2 0-0's away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Perugia are the form side. No defeat in 12 and only 1 loss in 9. They tend to be emphatic enough v bottom 5, and could score 2 or 3 goals today.
  • Varese are in poor form and are likely to concede. I am not sure where the DRT will come from here unless Varese score first or there is a protracted 0-0. With only 4 clean sheets all season, Varese are likely to concede at some stage.
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7:30pm - Valencia v Levante  - 1.37 home

Standout Stats

  • Valencia have only won 1 of the last 6 head to heads. Do we have another bogey team?
  • This is 4th v 16th in La Liga. 3rd place is a real possibility for Valencia but 1st and 2nd are out of reach.
  • Levante desperately need points as they are on 28 points, as are 17th and 18th.

Valencia

  • No defeat in 8 at home
  • 4 consecutive clean sheets at home
  • Only 1 loss in 17 matches.
  • 5 clean sheets in their last 8 matches.
  • Tend to score 2/3 v 15th and lower at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home
  • 31 goals scored at home

Levante

  • Conceded in their last 12 matches and last 7 away matches
  • No draw in those matches.
  • 6 consecutive away defeats ended with a win away to Almeria.
  • All away wins v the bottom 3.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • This is a tricky match. Head to heads tell us that Levante could be a bogey team. Levante's needs too might suggest a better performance.
  • Recent form points to Valencia scoring 2/3 goals in victory against a Levante side who have only beaten bottom 3 sides away.
  • Your angle into this match is determined by your siding with either head to heads or recent form. The former is the value call here.
  • Needs must for both teams brings in another tricky angle.
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8pm - Liverpool v Newcastle  - 1.41 home

Standout Stats

  • Newcastle won the last head to head, but that is not the norm.
  • This is 6th v 13th in the Premiership. A Liverpool win takes them to within 4 points of a top 4 spot , what with Man City losing yesterday. The incentives are clear.Newcastle are 9 points above the relegation zone so could theoretically still be dragged in, but you do sense that they are safe.

Liverpool

  • 2 consecutive losses to Arsenal and Man Utd
  • No draw in 7 matches and in 5 at home.
  • Scored in their last 7 matches and their last 8 at home.
  • 5 wins in their last 7 home matches.
  • Prior to the United match, Liverpool scored at least 2 goals at home in 7 consecutive matches. Newcastle are a real step down from Man Utd.
  • 3 losses at home, 2 v top 3 sides.
  • Only 2 0-0's at home
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Scored first in 12 matches at home

Newcastle

  • 4 match losing streak, 3 away
  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 6 matches.
  • Only 2 wins in their last 12 were against Hull City and Aston Villa. Poor stuff
  • Lost away to all of the top 5 this season.
  • Only 1 0-0 away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • This looks Liverpool's to lose. Newcastle have lost away to the top 5 and failed to score in 4 of their last 6. Where is the threat? Their recent wins came against Hull and Villa which is poor. A good DRT match therefore. Expect Liverpool to score at least 2 I think today, so lay Newcastle ( or even back Liverpool) should the former score first.