The influence of the Champions League and Europa League is greater than imagined. A litany of under performing teams from Man Utd, to Real Madrid, to Basel, to Red Bull to Dortmund (failed to beat 10 men), to Bayern (loss), to Atl Madrid. All one thing in common. European club competition. Reliable sides like Braga lost (Europa League team) and Red Bull were 1-2 down to 10 men (Europa League competitors).

A quiet Monday.

17:30 - Apollon Smirmis v PAOK - 1.42 PAOK

• 3-3 the last time these 2 met in the league and that was 2014 which tells me Smirmis are newly promoted.
• This is 13th v 5th in the Greek Super League.

Apollon Smirmis

• No win yet albeit just 2 matches.
• No home match yet.

PAOK

• 0-0 and a 3-1 win.

Conclusions

• A team as established as PAOK really should beat Apollon Smirmis. As ever though, it is naive to immediately dismiss newly promoted sides, particularly when they are playing at home for the first match in the top flight.

18:00 - Molde v Odd - 1.72 Molde

• Molde won the last 2 head to heads with both teams scoring.
• This is 4th v 7th in the Norwegian Eliteserien.

Molde

• 2 consecutive defeats.
• Failed to score only 4 times.
• Only played 2 of the top 8 at home, a loss and a win.
• 8 of 9 home goals conceded came 2nd half.

Odd

• Only 2 wins in 10 matches came in their last 2 home matches.
• Failed to score in 6 of their last 9 matches.
• Lost to 1st, 3rd and 6th away but beat 5th away.
• Only 4 goals scored away.

Conclusions

• A muddling match. I would note Molde tend to concede 2nd half so if there is to be a first half scorer, the stats say it is Molde.
• Odd have been through a rough patch, failing to score in 6 of their last 9 matches and scoring only 4 goals away.
• On that basis, Molde could simply outscore them.

18:00 - IFK Goteborg v Djurgardens - 2.6 IFK

• 2 consecutive Djurgardens wins in head to heads came at home.
• This is 9th v 2nd in the Swedish Allsvenskan.

IFK

• Scored and conceded in 8 of their last 9 matches.
• Unbeaten in 6 of their last 7 matches.
• Failed to score in only 4 matches.
• Scored and conceded in 9/10 at home without losing.
• Conceded in their last 6 at home and last 9 overall.
• 7 score draws at home.
• 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
• No 0-0.

Djurgardens

• Failed to score in only 4 matches.
• Scored in their last 9 away matches.
• Only 1 win v top 10 teams away from home.

Conclusions

• In this match I would lay Djurgardens if Djurgardens scored first. Both teams tend to score in IFK home matches without the home side losing. Djurgardens have shown they struggle v top 10 sides. IFK actually should be vying for the title ordinarily.
• Lay any late 0-0 as we expect goals.

18:00 - AaB v Silkeborg - 1.94 AaB

• 0-0 and 0-1 Silkeborg in the last 2 head to heads.
• This is 12th v 11th in the Danish Super Liga - you will see soon why I have looked at this match.

AaB

• No win.
• 3 0-0's in 4 matches. 2 consecutive 0-0's.
• 4 consecutive draws.

Silkeborg

• 1-0-0-1 goals scored away. No away win.
• No clean sheets.
• 2 wins came at home.
• 2-1-2-1 goals conceded away.

Conclusions

• I would lay any late 0-0 here. The longer a 0-0 sequence, the nearer it is to ending. The problem is that Silkeborg are poor goalscorers away.
• Silkeborg have conceded 2-1-2-1 away which gives me hope AaB can actually score a goal.
• I would delay entry into this market and lay any 0-0 after 75 minutes.

20:00 - West Ham v Huddersfield - 1.96 West Ham

• One of these 2 teams is unbeaten and one is bottom of the league.
• 3 consecutive away matches and 3 consecutive defeats for West Ham this season. If we look at the Southampton match, 2 Southampton penalties made for a 3-2 Saints win so there was a degree of bad luck there for the Hammers.
• Huddersfield are yet to concede in 3 matches, 2 wins and a 0-0 v Southampton.
• Only 1 away match for Huddersfield was in London, a 0-3 win v Palace.
• West Ham must secure a win soon and as this is their first home match of the season, this could be a good opportunity to expect the Hammers to at least come out of this unbeaten.
• We have a number of sequences. West Ham 3 losses. Huddersfield yet to concede. Huddersfield unbeaten. These sequences will end at some point.

20:00 - Malaga v Las Palmas - 2.06 Malaga

• The home side has tended to remain unbeaten in the last 4 head to heads.
• All defeats for both sides this season. 2 1-0 defeats Malaga, a 0-1 and a 5-1 defeat Las Palmas.
• Will head to head patterns continue? The home team not to lose? If so, lay Las Palmas if Las Palmas score first.