There is a sharp rise in rankings of opponents today as we get deeper into Wimbledon.
It is my last day in Guernsey so lunch with family will hinder my ability to trade. I hope to be available later on @drtclub Twitter as there are some very interesting matches today. I will leave some matches alone as they are too tight to call. The likes of Thiem v Berdych is basically evens the pair and in cases like this I assume a 5 setter and therefore think laying the player 2-0 or 2-1 up is the logical play. My shortlisters? I will lay Nadal 1.13 - Muller as we know is great on grass and I hope gives the Spaniard a test.
Aggy is certainly layable if ahead in her clash with Kuznetsova; Bautista-Agut should not be winning 3-0 today; Dare we stick with Wozza after she took us to the brink and back?; I think Federer is too classy for Dimitrov but Fed has been tie breaking first sets at Wimbledon and that might see our best chance to back Fed at higher odds.
Agnieszka Radwanska v Svetlana Kuznetsova - 1.52 Svet
- The odds look right here. Even though we profited as traders when Aggy fought back to win, in Svetlana she is meeting a tough cookie who will not be loosing 2-0.
- 8th v 9th further emphasises the tightness - Svetlana playing more like a top 10 player.
- 9/10 head to heads have gone to Svetlana.
- So, simply, Aggy should not be winning 2-0. React if there is a hint of that today.
Angelique Kerber v Garbiñe Muguruza - 1.62 Mug
- 2nd v 6th.
- Mug has won the last 4 head to heads from 2015 onwards.
- Mug yet to drop a set at Wimbledon and I questioned her form when losing 6-1 6-0 v Strykova at Eastbourne.
- 66, 72, 88th the rankings Mug has beaten so she was really expected to win.
- 48th, 93rd, 148th the rankings Kerber has beaten.
- Not a match I am really taken with today. As with football, choose the more obvious battles.
- These 2 are yet to meet a top 40 player this Wimbledon.
Jelena Ostapenko v Elina Svitolina - 1.81 Elina
- 50th v 13th.
- No head to heads.
- French Open winner Ostapenko has not looked as convincing on grass..
- Already she has had 2 3-setters and a 7-5 7-5 game.
- The lowest ranked player she has beaten here is 90th.
- Svitolina is yet to drop a set. Lowest ranked is 69th. As we see today, a lot, the rankings of opponents get considerably better.
- Ostapenko is layable if winning the first set for me.
Roberto Bautista Agut v Marin Cilic - 1.24 Cilic
- I foretold struggles for Nishikori as he met a far better ranked player in Agut. Nishi did provide an excellent trade though as he went 2-0 down and won that 3rd set.
- Cilic is yet to drop a set. This is his first top 20 opponent at Wimbledon.
- 2 4-setters for Agut suggests Agut will not be winning 3-0 today. Ideals? 2-0 Agut again today. I know, I am asking for a lot.
Sam Querrey v Kevin Anderson - 1.82 Kevin Anderson
- 27th v 66th.
- 8-5 Querrey in head to heads. These players have been winning alternately of late.
- 5 tie breakers already for Kevin Anderson tells us his serve is strong but he does not break opponents regularly.
- A great scalp of Tsonga for Querrey will give him real confidence. Tsonga is ranked 11th.
- My usual angle here would be to expect a 5 setter and so lay a player 2-0; 0-2 even 2-1 up.
- A tight match in prospect.
Coco Vandeweghe v Caroline Wozniacki - 1.78 Coco
- This is the first time Wozza is not a favourite at Wimbledon.
- 23rd v 11th.
- Wozza won the 2016 head to head in 3 sets.
- Coco is yet to drop a set at Wimbledon and retired at Birmingham. A feeling that there is no injury niggle for Coco.
- 2 3-setters for street-fighter Wozza, made of the same sturdy stuff as Ferrer.
- Wozza was 1.83 odds last match and the market relayed a tough match. She lost the first set and won the 2nd set on a tie breaker.
- I predict another tight match today. How often can we keep faith in Wozza? Lay the first set winner again? We will get a fight from Wozza.
Andy Murray v Benoit Paire - 1.13 Murray
- 1st v 48th.
- 3 setter (Murray lost first set) when these 2 met in Monte Carlo.
- 69th, 86th, 165th ranked players were beaten by Paire.
- 146th, 76th and 29th beaten by Murray. He dropped a set v Foggy.
- Another pattern today where both players are meeting the best ranked player today.
- Paire has had a tie breaker in every Wimbledon match to date.
- Murray is consistent at Wimbledon as we all know. Semi Final and Final last 2 years.
- I do feel Murray's odds are a little short but he should not be losing today.
Rafael Nadal v Gilles Muller - 1.13 Nadal
- 5th v 28th. You know my thoughts on Gilles Muller on grass.
- I think he is excellent and I will be laying Nadal at 1.14 at the off. I suppose it is significant that the only recent grass court loss for Muller was v 8th in the rankings.
- Nadal has yet to drop a set in 9 consecutive grand slam matches.
- No Wimbledon last year for Nadal.
- I hope Muller is competitive but there is a feeling that the top 10 stop him in his tracks.
Victoria Azarenka v Simona Halep - 1.67 Simona Halep
- 319th v 5th. Ignore the Victoria rankings.
- A nice trade last match for Azarenka in a predicted 3 setter with Heather Watson.
- Halep yet to drop a set.
- A question mark over Azarenka suggests I lay Aza if she wins the first set in the hope she may be ring rusty v a top 5 player.
Milos Raonic v Alexander Zverev - 1.86 Raonic
- 6th v 21st.
- Zverev won in Rome this year in straight sets with a tie breaker first set.
- 4 tie breakers already for Raonic and if he is on the tie breaker trail today, that may cost him - look what Kokkanakis did to him at Queens, winning 2 tie breakers.
- Zverev is yet to lose a set.
- In a match like this, I would lay a 2-0/0-2 leader in sets. I would lay a 2-1 / 1-2 leader and pre-empt a 5 setter.
Dominic Thiem v Tomas Berdych - 1.93 Berdych
- A fascinating market here where the market makers cannot split these 2 players at all.
- 9th v 13th.
- Only 1 head to head from 2014.
- 4-4-3 sets so far for Tomas suggests we may not see a 3-0 Berdych win today as, yet again, the rankings of the opponent jumps dramatically.
- 3-4-3 sets so far for Thiem.
- Yet again today I will approach this match from a 2-0; 0-2 lay of the player leading by those sets, and lay the player leading 2-1. This should be a 5-setter.
- Only 2nd round last year for Thiem here. Berdych was a semi-finalist last year.
Grigor Dimitrov v Roger Federer - 1.19 Federer
- 5-0 head to heads for the Fed and he will not be losing 3-0 today.
- 12th v 4th.
- Dimitrov has had a stroll so far, the likes of Crocked Baggy, and a retirement of Sela.
- 79th and 35th , the rankings Fed has beaten to date.
- The first set was a tie breaker for Fed on both occasions. This suggests he is slow to get going. I would hope Dimi can give us that tight first set. I would be keen to back Federer at 1.5 odds or higher.
Adrian Mannarino v Djokovic - 1.05 Djokovic
- 51st v 2nd.
- 3 setter win for Novak at Wimbledon last year saw Adrian fight for the last set in a tie breaker.
- Mannarino would not be here if Lopez had not retired first round. Since that first round, we see 2 5-setters v 91st and 17th.
- Last match for Novak saw a 3 setter and a tie breaker last set.
- That could be an angle. Lay Novak 3-0 set betting if he is 2-0 up.
- Typically I lay 1.06 shots at the off, as you know.
Johanna Konta v Caroline Garcia - 1.42 Konta
- 7th v 24th.
- All head to heads from 2016 onwards, Garcia - Konta- Konta - Garcia.
- Konta has beaten 2 players who have recently defeated here. Will this pattern continue today? Garcia beat her this year at Indian Wells.
- Comfortable so far for Garcia but yet again, for both players, the rankings of today's opponents vastly improves.
- Konta has won the first set in the last 3 head to heads (losing last match though).
- Tough to call today.
Ana Konjuh v Venus Williams - 1.59 Venus
- 34th v 12th.
- No head to heads.
- We have a pattern with both players for tie breakers first set this Wimbledon. Will that continue today? If so, we should see a rise in Venus's odds.
- Ana has lost the first set in a tie breaker last 2 matches, and won the 2nd set (and match).
- 2nd round only last year for Ana at Wimbledon.
- Round of 16 for Venus last year at Wimbledon.
- I will hope Ana wins the first set (and she could if we get a first round tie breaker) and I will back Venus at bigger odds. She is doing some good escape acts this Wimbledon.
Magdalena Rybarikova v Petra Martic - 1.35 Rybarikova
- 384th v 369th. Interesting to see such poorly ranked player this deep into Wimbledon.
- No head to heads.
- The only person to have beaten Mag in 17 grass matches this year was Johanna Konta. Good stuff and Mag is obviously good on grass.
- Martic has gone through qualifying to get here.
- I will favour Rybarikova today.