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Only 6 matches from major leagues today. Strasbourg are excellent at home v the top 5. Fun and games v a Monaco who, on paper, should beat this newly promoted side. Strictly on form, Schalke should not lose their match in Germany. Roma v Torino has some niggles. Roma are losing at home v top 8 sides. Will that extend to 9th placed Torino?

Hibs v Hearts could be the battle of the defences. And Girona look superb - newly promoted in Italy and 7th placed.

There is no shortlist again today. There are a couple of potential goals before halftime matches which I will post at the DRT Facebook page.  I'll do another review video of yesterday's Shorties and expand upon shorties in today's DRT e-letter.


19:45 - Strasbourg v Monaco - 1.7 Monaco

  • 3-0 Monaco earlier this season.

Strasbourg (15th)

  • Only 2 wins in 10 did come at home.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • 2-1 ...v 1st, 3-3 v 3rd; 2-1 v 5th at home. Solid stuff v the big guns.
  • 61% of goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Monaco (2nd)

  • Unbeaten in 13 and in 5 away.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 8 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime in the last 12 matches.
  • 15 wins and 2 draws home and away v 9th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Interesting Strasbourg record v the top 5 is in stark contrast with 2 wins in their last 10 matches.
  • Monaco themselves tend to beat teams 9th and lower.
  • So what's it to be? Another impressive unbeaten Strasbourg performance v top 5, or will Monaco's 2+ goal habit insure against that?
  • I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market as Strasbourg tend to concede 1st half.

19:30 - Mainz v Schalke - 2.12 Schalke

  • 3 consecutive Schalke wins in head to heads.

Mainz

  • Unbeaten in 3 matches with 2 consecutive draws.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 5 at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home (25%).
  • Lost to top 3 without scoring.

Schalke (2nd)

  • 3 consecutive wins.
  • Scored in their last 19 and last 9 away.
  • No away 0-0.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime away (25%).
  • Not played the bottom 4 away. Beat 12th, 13th, 14th away.
  • 72% of goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Strictly on form, Schalke should eye the win here today. Mainz tend to lose to nil to top 3 sides.
  • Schalke have yet to meet the bottom 4 away though.
  • With 75% of matches seeing a goal before halftime for both sides, ok to lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market?....but 72% of Schalke away goals were scored 2nd half.

19:45 - Roma v Torino - 1.77 Roma

  • Roma won the last 2 Seria A head to heads, but Torino won the last head to head in the Coppa Italia.

Roma (3rd)

  • 4 wins in 5 matches.
  • 3 defeats in 4 at home.
  • Conceded in their last 5 at home.
  • No home 0-0.
  • 5 home defeats came v top 8.
  • 11 of 15 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Torino (9th)

  • 2 consecutive defeats.
  • Only 1 win in 10 away.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 away.
  • 3 away defeats v 2nd, 10th and 19th.

Conclusions

  • Roma are definitely more vulnerable v top 8...does that extend to 9th?
  • I think both teams could score today.
  • It is tough to write off Torino given Roma's poor top 8 home record.

19:00 - Heracles v Twente - 2.42 Heracles

  • Twente are unbeaten in the last 4 head to heads but remember, as I mentioned last week, they are not the Twente of old.

Heracles (11th)

  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored in their last 13 at home.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only home losses v 1st and 5th.
  • 100% win record v 13th and lower at home.
  • 62% of goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Twente (16th)

  • No win in 10 and in 5 away.
  • 3 consecutive away defeats.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime (46.2%) away.
  • Only 1 away win v 14th.
  • 70% of goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • The odds are a headscratcher. Why are Heracles not strong favourites? Is it the head to heads?
  • Certainly on season long form, Heracles have the beating of teams 13th and lower, tending to concede but score 2+ goals.
  • Twente have only 1 away win so why is the market giving them a chance here today?
  • Note the 2nd half goals bias, particularly for Twente conceding so if Twente have not conceded by halftime, I would expect them to leak a goal or 2 2nd half.

19:45 - Hibernian v Hearts - 1.8 Hibernian

  • 1-0 Hibs and 0-0 last 2 SPL head to heads.

Hibs (4th)

  • Only 2 losses in 14 matches came v the top 3.
  • Scored in their last 9 at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Hearts yet to score in 2 v Hibs this season.

Hearts (5th)

  • Only 2 losses in 16 came away v the top 2.
  • 67% of goals conceded away came 1st half.
  • Not beaten a top 6 side away.
  • Not scored that 2nd goal away v a top 9 side.
  • 0-0 away v Rangers and Aberdeen and remember only 1-0 Hibs this season.

Conclusions

  • It looks to me as if 0-0 is in play here. I would back it pre-match at its highest point and try to last as long as possible in the market before cash out.
  • Hearts trouble scoring a 2nd goal away v top 9, suggests we lay Hearts if Hearts score first.
  • I must say here that both sides are in cracking form only losing to top 3 and top 2 sides in recent matches. I do hope this helps the 0-0 cause.

20:00 - Girona v Deportivo - 1.65 Girona

  • 1-2 Girona in the last head to head.

Girona (7th)

  • Only 2 defeats in 9 v Barcelona and Sevilla.
  • 5 consecutive home wins.
  • 5 clean sheets in 7.
  • Scored in their last 9 at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Wins at home v 2 of bottom 3.

Depor (19th)

  • No win in 12 and in 8 away.
  • 4 consecutive away defeats.
  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 6.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Only away win v 18th.

Conclusions

  • People laud the likes of Pep Gladioli but he has it easy with the millions at his disposal.
  • It is managers such as Girona's who show true skill. Newly promoted and 7th in such a qualify league. Excellent stuff and without the Pep millions.
  • I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market although I note Depor have had trouble of scoring of late (ideally we want both sides in good scoring nick to run for us).
  • This presents a good opportunity for Girona today and I am with them here.