I have arrived in London. One more flight and I will be in the Land of Matt Le Tissier. I hope to be able to tweet the Football this evening. No promises though. I have not seen my family for some time. It all looks very obvious this evening but do not let short odds put you off. There is value to be had. Think halftime market. Think correct score/over/under goals market. I would not discourage an over 2.5 goals accumulator on all matches where there is a favourite at odds of 1.2 or shorter.
19:45 - Netherlands v Luxembourg - 1.03 Netherlands
- 4th in Group A, Netherlands must win and will win.
- 1-3 Netherlands in the last head to head.
- Luxembourg are no longer getting an absolute spanking. I would expect Netherlands to score 3/4 goals at least today.
- I would expect Netherlands to lead at halftime. What I tend to do with these odds is get excited if 0-0 at halftime. Back over 3.5 or 4.5 goals if 0-0 after 20 minutes.
- Back any other home win if 0-0 after 20 minutes. Back 2-0 halftime score if 0-0 at halftime. That's how I would turn 1.03 into value.
19:45 - Latvia v Portugal - 1.13 Portugal
- 4-1 Portugal in an earlier head to head.
- This is Group B where Switzerland and Portugal dominate.
- I would expect 3 or 4 goals from Portugal today. Note Latvia at home last 2 matches conceded only 2 goals.
- We may see a Latvian defensive stand so a hope, as above, for a 0-0 for a while. Expectation is for Portugal to lead. 1.13 suggests 3/4 goals which fits into Portugal's goalscoring this qualifier campaign.
19:45 - Andorra v Hungary - 1.12 Hungary
- Hungary are 3rd in Group B.
- 0-0-1-0-0 scored by Andorra this World Cup qualifier. Hungary at home took until the 33rd minute to score against Andorra.
- We expect a win to nil today. So that opens the doors up for you to try a correct score punt. 0-3, 0-4, 0-5 would appeal for me today. Better odds by delaying and hope Andorra can keep Hungary out for another half hour!
19:45 - Gibraltar v Cyprus - 1.21 Cyprus
- 3-1 Cyprus when these 2 met earlier.
- GibraItar are the new minnows, aIong with Kosovo, joining the 'we wiII consistentIy get spanked' cIub.
- These 2 wiII not be quaIifying from Group H.
- 4-4-6-3-5 goaIs conceded by GibraItar recentIy is the tempIate for tonight. The market is a IittIe apprehensive as Cyprus are away from home.
- Cyprus are yet to win a WorId Cup quaIifier away from home, with 4 consecutive 2-0 defeats, hence the market trepidation.
- Do stiII expect a Cypriot win. Not sure what angIes as GibraItar may offer IittIe resistance.
19:45 - Faroe Islands v Switzerland - 1.2 Switzerland
- Like the above match, the market has nodded in sIight deference to the Faroes at home, and aIso acknowIedged that the Swiss are hardIy goaI machines.
- 3rd pIace is a possibiIity for Faroes in a Group B dominated by the Swiss.
- OnIy 2 wins for the Faroes since 2001 in WorId Cup quaIifiers.
- They have faiIed to score in 5 of 6 matches incIuding a 2-0 Ioss away to SwitzerIand.
- 0-1-0-0-0 scored by Faroes in recent home matches.
- Faroes are vuInerabIe to a sub 20 minute goaI so note that.
- The Swiss are unbeaten in WorId Cup quaIifiers since 2008 and 9 consecutive wins spread 2013 to the current campaign.
- 2-3-2-2-1 goaIs scored recentIy . I suspect 2 maximum tonight.
- This is a match where, despite Faroes tending to concede earIy, I wouId back 0-0 pre match and hope for a staIe mate for Iong enough to get a profit. I usuaIIy wait untiI haIftime. Why? Faroes unIikeIy to score and Swiss advertised their poor scoring with onIy a 1-0 at home to Latvia.
19:45 - Sweden v France - 1.76 France
- The top 2 in Group A, and Sweden do have BuIgaria breathing down their necks.
- 2-1 France in an earIier head to head saw Sweden score first and that wouId be a hope today as France are capabIe of equaIising.
- NetherIands and France are the onIy 2 sides Sweden has not beaten and that is teIIing. I wouId not expect them to beat France tonight. They just Iack that quaIity. Wins over Luxembourg, BeIarus and BuIgaria reIay IittIe.
- 1-0-0- conceded at home and NetherIands couId onIy manage a 1-1.
- A 0-0 with BeIarus began France's campaign and since then it is 4 wins. They did concede in 3 of their 4 wins.
- My hope is that France concede first as I wouId be a confident Iayer of Sweden.
19:45 - Estonia v Belgium - 1.2 Belgium
- Group H is a 3-way street and Estonia are not part of the 3.
- A win v GibraItar and draw with Cyprus sums up Estonia's capabiIities. Just a smaII IeveI above the minnows.
- An 8-1 spanking to BeIgium suggests what might be in store tonight.
- Estonia have not conceded more than 2 goaIs at home this quaIifier. A 2-2 v NetherIands was a decent resuIt.
- BeIgium Iook sound, 4 cIean sheets and a singIe goaI conceded to Greece an in attack they have scored 3-4-6-8-1.
- It Iooks Iike it might be a comfortabIe yet unspectacuIar win for BeIgium this evening. 2 goaIs minimum I wouId expect of them. Again the onIy angIe wouId be if Estonia offered some significant resistance defensiveIy.
19:45 - Bosnia v Greece - 1.72 Bosnia
- 3rd and 2nd in GRoup H these 2 are FIattered by having the Iikes of Cyprus, Estonia and GibraItar in the group
- 1-1 the Iast time these 2 met saw Iate red cards to either side.
- OnIy one Ioss for Bosnia came v BeIgium. They Iook to make hay at home.
- 7 wins in their Iast 8 at home in quaIifiers sees 3 cIean sheets so far this campaign aIbeit a reminder that they pIayed the minnows.
- 2 consecutive 1-1 draws now for Greece in an unbeaten run so far this quaIifier campaign.
- They conceded away v GibraItar and BeIgium.
- I do not have a strong angIe into this match. Both sides are doing what is expected v the minnows and wiII find each other harder to beat.
19:45 - Belarus v Bulgaria - 2.6 Belarus
- The market offers a ready cIue here. Hard to aII this Group A cIash.
- 2 points onIy from BeIarus and 3 onIy from BuIgaria.
- No win yet for BeIarus 0-1-1-0-0 scored. It does suggest that if they score first, they may be IayabIe.
- 0-0 v France and 1-1 v Luxembourg. The 0-0 v France was very eyecatching and suggests at possibIe home tactics.
- No draw yet from BuIgaria who have Iost away to France and Sweden onIy.
- On form we side with BuIgaria here but the market quite simpIy sees this match as anybody's.
The tennis has reached the semi final stage and it is Thiem v Nadal take 4 I think. 2-1 to Nadal and Thiem has won the most recentl match. Nadal is far too short at odds of 1.23. The market has a very short memory of Thiems spanking of Djokovic and beating of Nadal in Rome after 2 consecutive clay final defeats. I must lay Nadal also if Nadal wins the first set. I cannot see him winning 3-0. Murray v Stan Wawrinka is too tight to call, as you would expect of a Grand Slam Semi final. The grass court tennis is beginning in Surbiton I think. It is not a trading medium until we hit the likes of Nottingham/ Eastbourne, Queens of course and Wimbledon.