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Some interesting teams this evening, playing on a Friday to compensate for Champions League / Europa League competition next week. We have to hope that the teams play with full concentration and a full complement of first team players. Some teams are known to tinker with league teams prior to European competition. I have done a shortlist at DRT Facebook and a list of possible goals before halftime.

ITALIAN SERIA A

19:45 - Fiorentina v Juventus - 1.89 Juventus (shortlist)

  • 1-2 and 2-1 Fiorentina in the last 2 Juve visits.
  • I am surprised Juve are not shorter. We shall see if the research agrees.

Fiorentina (11th)

  • Back on track with a 1-2 win v Bologna.
  • That ended a run of only 2 wins in 12 matches and 2 consecutive defeats.
  • No win in 4 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Not beaten a top 8 side home or away but yet to meet top 3 at home.
  • Scored and conceded in all home matches played v top 8.

Juventus (2nd)

  • Only a point shy of Napoli.
  • 7 consecutive wins.
  • 9 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • Failed to score in only one match.
  • 5 consecutive away wins.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • Unbeaten at halftime away.
  • 100% wins v 8th and lower.
  • Scored first in 8/11 away and led at halftime 7/11 away.

Conclusions

  • Fiorentina may yet score today but without winning. That's what their home form v top 8 relays. Note though they are yet to meet top 3 at home.
  • Juve have led at halftime away in 7/11 so that suggests laying the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • 100% wins v 8th and lower for Juve so they expect a win today. Their odds are a little high so the market is cautious. It may be because of those Fiorentina 1-1 draws at home v top 8.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

19:30 - Leipzig v Augsburg - 1.8 Leipzig

  • 2-2 and 1-0 Augsburg last 2 head to heads.

Leipzig (3rd)

  • Only 6 losses.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Scored in their last 10 at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Scored 2 goals at least in all bar 2 at home.
  • Led at halftime at home in 60% of matches.

Augsburg (7th)

  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 5 away matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 away.
  • 3-0 and 3-2 loss v top 5 away.
  • 3-3-1-2-2 conceded away v top 9.

Conclusions

  • Augsburg are conceding 2+ goals v top 9 away and meet a Leipzig scoring 2 goals regularly at home.
  • I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Leipzig and an expectation for goals.
  • Augsburg could score and I would lay them if they scored first.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

19:45 - St Etienne v Marseille - 1.94 Marseille (shortlist)

  • 4-0 and 3-0 Marseille in the last 2 head to heads.

St Etienne (12th)

  • No draw in 8 matches.
  • 2 consecutive wins.
  • Only 4 clean sheets since 25th August 2017.
  • 2 consecutive home wins.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 goal scored in 6 matches v top 6 teams.
  • Not scored a 2nd goal in a match v top 9 teams.

Marseille (2nd)

  • Only 3 losses.
  • 5 wins and a 2-2 last 6 matches.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • No 0-0.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 11th and lower.
  • In 11 of 13 of those matches above, 2+ goals were scored.
  • 10 of 15 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on St Etienne and Marseille scoring 2+ goals generally v 11th and lower.
  • With only 3 defeats, logically Marseille are favoured not to lose today.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

19:45 - Millwall v Cardiff - 2.74 Millwall

  • The odds are immediately off-putting but it is a quiet Friday relatively speaking so I'll research this.
  • 2 consecutive 0-0's in head to heads.

Millwall (14th)

  • Only 2 defeats in 11 came away from home.
  • No defeat in 7 at home.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Unbeaten v top 10 at home but draws v top 2 and not played 3rd-6th.
  • Scored first in 10/15 at home.

Cardiff (4th)

  • Win, draw, win last 3 scoring 4 goals in the wins.
  • 0-0 last away.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Only 1 0-0  away.
  • 5 of 7 defeats this season came away.
  • 8 goals scored last 15 mins of away matches.

Conclusions

  • Is 0-0 in play? Head to heads; Millwall away v top 6 sees 4 0-0's, Cardiff last away was a 0-0?
  • I will take a chance and take on any late 0-0, lay it about 75th minute mark given Cardiff score and concede heavily at that point away.
  • Apart from that it is tough to call.

SPANISH LA LIGA

20:00 - Athetic Bilbao v Las Palmas - 1.51 Bilbao (shortlist)

  • 1-0 Las Palmas last head to head.

Athletic Bilbao (13th)

  • Only 1 loss in 11 was an away loss v Girona.
  • 3 score draws in 4 matches.
  • 4 draws and a win last 5 at home.
  • No defeat in 5 at home.
  • 7 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Not played bottom 4 yet at home.

Las Palmas (19th)

  • 2 wins in 3 came at home.
  • 8 losses and a draw last 9 away matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 11 away.
  • 2+ goals conceded in each of their last 8 away matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • 21 of 28 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • A good opportunity for Ath Bilbao to get back on track today after a poor away loss v Girona.
  • Watch out for 0-0 at halftime. I would expect 2nd half goals given Las Palmas extreme concession rate away 2nd half.
  • No win away Las Palmas suggests we take on any lead of theirs.

DUTCH EERSTE DIVISIE

19:00 - Cambuur v MVV Maastricht - 1.46 Cambuur (shortlist)

  • 1-1 earlier this season.

Cambuur (11th)

  • 6 wins in 8 matches.
  • 2-3-0-3-1-2-3-2 goals scored recently.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 5 at home.
  • No 0-0.
  • Unbeaten at home v 13th and lower.

MVV Maastricht (15th)

  • 4 defeats in 5 matches.
  • 8 defeats in their last 9 away.
  • No draw in 10 away, conceding in each of those 10.
  • Only 2 away wins v 8th and 13th.
  • Scored and conceded in 7/8 v 6th and lower.
  • 10 of 14 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Both teams to score has a strong chance today. It looks as if we can lay MVV if MVV scores first based on Cambuur's recent goal scoring record.

19:00 - De Graafschap v Volendam - 1.81 De Graaf

  • 1-1, 2-2, 0-0 last 3 head to heads.

De Graafschap (8th)

  • 2 consecutive wins.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored in their last 11 at home.
  • 2+ goals scored in their last 5 matches.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Lost to 15th at home but beat 18th and 20th and 11th and 12th.
  • Scored first in 7/11 at home.

Volendam (14th)

  • 6 wins in 7 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets but scored 3-4-3-2 goals recently.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • Not beaten a top 15 side away -not played 4th-8th away.

Conclusions

  • The key? Volendam have not beaten a top 15 side away so those recent wins need a context.
  • De Graaf to score 2 goals again? If so lay Volendam if Volendam score first.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

19:00 - Den Bosch v FC Eindhoven - 1.98 Den Bosch

  • 0-1 Den Bosch last head to head.

Den Bosch (10th)

  • Only 1 win in 7 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 8 of their last 11 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 home matches.
  • Scored in their last 11 at home.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Losses at home v 3rd, 7th and 18th.
  • Scored first in 9/11 at home.

FC Eindhoven (12th)

  • 3 heavy away defeats conceding 5-4-4 goals.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • No win in 5 away.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 away.
  • Not beaten a top 13 side away but scored and conceded in all bar 1.
  • 11 of 15 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Both teams could score today with FC Eindhoven not necessarily winning. A simple angle.
  • In the expectation for goals I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

19:00 - Dordrecht v Helmond Sport - 1.81 Dordrecht

  • 1-0 Helmond and 1-2 Dordrecht last 2 head to heads.

Dordrecht (13th)

  • 4 consecutive wins.
  • Scored 2 goals at least in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • No draw in 13 matches.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of their last 5 at home.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 3-2, 1-2, 2-1, 0-2 wins v bottom 3.
  • 16 of 22 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Helmond Sport (19th)

  • 3 consecutive defeats.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 5 away.
  • Only 2 away wins.
  • 10 of 12 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late draw.
  • Dordrecht have a historical good record v bottom 3 sides and should be favoured then. They may concede but not lose.

19:00 - FC Oss v Almere City - 2.38 Oss (shortlist)

  • Given the odds and the fact it is a lower league I will just list the eyecatching stats.
  • Almere have conceded in their last 23 matches.
  • Almere have scored and conceded in their last 12 matches.
  • Only 1 win for Oss v top 10 but big form gap v 5th-8th at home.
  • 14 of 18 Almere goals were scored 2nd half away.
  • So, what might occur here? Both teams score, Oss most likely first goalscorers. Almere highly likely to score 2nd half.

19:00 - Go Ahead Eagles v Emmen - 2.62 Emmen

  • A betting market making no appeal at all. As above, a quick check on the key patterns.
  • Only 1 win in 12 for Go Ahead.
  • They play an Emmen with only 3 defeats. So what gives? Why are Emmen not strong favourites?
  • 11 draws for Emmen might explain the odds?
  • Then we have Go Ahead unbeaten at home v top 7 (Emmen are 6th).
  • The market spot on here. Messy form lines.

19:00 - Jong Utrecht v Waalwijk - 2.56 Jong Utrecht

  • Bottom of the league takes on bottom 4 Waalwijk in another market where the market makers cannot choose a favourite.
  • Only 2 wins for Jong Utrecht but no away wins for Waalwijk.
  • 2-2 the last time these 2 met.
  • Jong are unbeaten v bottom 5, albeit 2 0-0's, 1 -0 win 2-1 and 2-2.
  • Another match to swerve!

19:00 - Telstar v Jong Ajax - 2.2 Jong Ajax

  • 1-3 Ajax and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.

Telstar (5th)

  • Only 1 loss in 7 was a 3-2.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Unbeaten in 8 at home.
  • Only 1 home loss v 3rd.
  • 12 of 18 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Jong Ajax (1st)

  • 5 wins in 6 matches.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Scored in their last 11 and last 12 away.
  • 12 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches away.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 2-1 loss away to 2nd and 3rd, 0-3 win v 4th and 2-2 away v 6th. Vulnerable today?

Conclusions

  • 2 inform sides.
  • Expectation for goals today, 3 at least when we are involved in a Jong Ajax away match.
  • On that basis logic suggests laying the 0-0 in the halftime score market. 2-2 as a trading vehicle appeals today. Both sides in good scoring form, Jong Ajax seem vulnerable v top 6.