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Some interesting matches this evening and some puzzlers. I'll do a DRT Facebook video.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

20:00 - Norwich v Watford - 2.66 Watford

  • +3.5 goals: There have been +3.5 goals in 5/5 Norwich home matches and +2.5 goals in 10/15 Watford away matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 5/5 Norwich home matches.
  • The bottom 2. Can they really be relied upon?
  • No win yet for Watford. 3 draws in 4 matches. 0-1-0-0-1 goals scored away by Watford.
  • 3-2-3-1-1 goals scored by Norwich at home. 2 wins only came at home.
  • Norwich have kept only one clean sheet.
  • Neither side has had a 0-0 at halftime.
  • Angles? These 2 cannot really be trusted. I suspect that Norwich are in such poor form that Watford may be eyeing their first win of the season.
  • Note Norwich have only failed to score once though.

SPANISH LA LIGA

20:00 - Sociedad v Leganes - 1.67 Sociedad

  • 1st goal: Real Sociedad have scored first in 7/11 home matches while Leganes have lost 10/12 away matches against top-six teams. Leganes have had L/L double results in 8/12 away matches against top-six teams.

Sociedad (3rd)

  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • Win, Win, Loss, Win, Loss at home. Losses were 1-2.
  • Both teams scored in 5 of Sociedad's last 6 matches.
  • Sociedad have failed to score in only one match.
  • 100% wins v 15th and lower home and away.

Leganes (20th)

  • Only 1 win.
  • 4 losses and a draw away.
  • Failed to score last 3 away.
  • Only one clean sheet came in that win.

Conclusions

  • On away form from Leganes, we must be with Sociedad today. Leganes are struggling to even score.

ITALIAN SERIA A

19:45 - Sassuolo v Bologna - 2.7 Bologna

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 7/8 Sassuolo home matches against middle-third teams and in 9/13 Bologna away matches. There have been +3.5 goals in 5/8 Sassuolo home matches against middle-third teams.
  • Both sides have only 3 wins.
  • Sassuolo have failed to score in only one match.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home for Sassuolo. Only 1 0-0 at halftime away for Bologna away.
  • Both sides largely tend to congregate their wins v bottom 3 sides. They are 15th and 13th.
  • Angles? Similar form. Strictly we lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. Do remember Sassuolo have failed to score in only one match.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

19:30 - FC Koln v Hoffenheim - 2.64 Hoffenheim

  • +2.5 goals: Promoted teams have had +2.5 goals in 54% of home matches against top-half teams since 2014-15. There have been +3.5 goals in 13/20 Hoffenheim away matches. Hoffenheim have won the first half in 6/10 away matches.

FC Koln (17th)

  • Only 2 wins.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime all season.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not met 3rd-10th at home.
  • 6 of 8 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Hoffenheim (9th)

  • 4 consecutive wins scoring 2+ goals.
  • Scored and conceded last 3 away matches without losing.
  • Not met bottom 7 away yet.

Conclusions

  • This is another match where the odds look big for the Hoff who are now on a 4 match winning run, scoring 2+ goals and scoring and conceding away without losing.
  • The only reason for the hesitant market may be the gaps in form.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

19:45 - Nice v Bordeaux - 2.62 Nice

  • Match outcome: Nice have won 10/16 home matches while Bordeaux have lost 6/8 away matches against middle-third teams. There have been -2.5 goals in 13/20 Bordeaux away matches.
  • 2.62 the favourite suggests we used in-play stats or leave alone.
  • Only 1 win in 6 matches for Nice came last match.
  • Only 1 clean sheet for Nice came last match.
  • They have failed to score only in their last 2 away matches.
  • Neither side has had a 0-0 at halftime.
  • Nice's 2 home defeats came v the current top 4.
  • 2 losses in 3 matches for Bordeaux is part of a run of 3 losses in 5 matches.
  • Bordeaux have conceded in their last 4 away matches.
  • Noticeably, Bordeaux are unbeaten home and away v 9th and lower.
  • Angles? Well, there you have it. 2.62 the favourite because I can make a cogent argument for either side. Nice only lose v the top 4 at home. Bordeaux though are unbeaten home and away v 12th and lower.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

Vitesse Arnhem v FC Groningen - 1.92 Vitesse

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 9/10 Vit. Arnhem home matches and +3.5 goals in 10/15 Vit. Arnhem home matches. Groningen have lost 7/9 away matches against top-six teams.

Vitesse (5th)

  • 2 consecutive defeats.
  • A draw, 4 wins and a loss at home.
  • Not played 6th-13th at home.
  • 2+ goals scored in all bar 1 match at home.
  • 10 of 13 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Groningen (9th)

  • 3 wins in 4 came at home.
  • Only 1 away win came 1st match of the season.
  • Not beaten the top 7 away.
  • Not scored that 2nd goal away.

Conclusions

  • Groningen don't tend to beat the top 7 away. Vitesse are on a 2 match losing run and have not played 6th-13th at home. Those are the niggles.
  • Vitesse do have a chance to score 2 goals today which could see them right. Note they score heavily 2nd half. Groningen are layable if leading. They are yet to score that 2nd goal away.

TURKISH SUPER LIG

17:30 - Fenerbahce v Kasimpasa - 1.36 Fenerbahce

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 12/15 Fenerbahce home matches against middle-third teams and in 9/11 Kasimpasa away matches against top-six teams. Kasimpasa have lost 11/14 away matches against top-six teams.

Fenerbahce (4th)

  • Only 3 losses.
  • Only 1 home loss.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Unbeaten v 5th-13th home and away this season.
  • 5-0 v 8th and 5-1 v 10th at home.
  • Not conceded a home goal from 31st minute onwards.

Kasimpasa (11th)

  • Only 1 loss in 6 matches.
  • Both teams scored last 4 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 1-0-1-1-4 goals scored away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Not beaten a top 10 side home or away.

Conclusions

  • Noticeably Kasimpasa have not beaten a top 10 side yet, despite only 1 loss in 6 matches.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Fenerbahce did fail to score last match but they are unbeaten v 5th-13th at home.

DUTCH EERSTE DIVISIE

19:00 - Roda JC v Cambuur Leeuwarden - 1.93 Cambuur

  • 1st goal: Roda JC have conceded first in 3/6 home matches against top-six teams while Cambuur have won 8/9 away matches against middle-third teams. Cambuur have won by two or more goals in 5/8 away matches against middle-third teams.

Roda (13th)

  • Only 1 loss in 9 matches.
  • 3 wins in 5 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Scored in each of their last 7 home matches.
  • Drew 1-1 with 2nd and 4-2 win v 3rd.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 home match.

Cambuur (1st)

  • Unbeaten in 10 matches.
  • 3 draws in 4 matches.
  • 2 consecutive away draws.
  • Only 2 losses came away v the top 3.

Conclusions

  • Note that Roda do have a good record at home v the top 3, a draw and a win. Value seekers might latch onto this and lay Cambuur if Cambuur lead.
  • The thing is, though, that Cambuur have only lost 2 matches, away, v the top 3 and have shown consistent form v 4th and lower. But... Cambuur are on a recent draw sequence.

Jong Ajax Amsterdam v Den Bosch - 1.42 Jong Ajax

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/9 Jong Ajax home matches against middle-third teams and +3.5 goals in 10/11 Jong Ajax home matches. Den Bosch have conceded first in 6/9 away matches against top-six teams.

Jong Ajax (4th)

  • 3 of 4 defeats came away.
  • Lost their last home match 1-3 v Volendam, at similar odds to today's.
  • A draw and 4 wins at home.
  • Scored in every match.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.

Den Bosch (14th)

  • 4 consecutive draws.
  • 2 0-0's last 3 matches.
  • No away win.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Yet to play 2nd-7th away.

Conclusions

  • Jong Ajax were similarly priced last Friday but imploded. A blip or something more terminal?
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Den Bosch have only 2 wins at home. Draw looks best case for them....as long as Jong Ajax are reliable this week.

Helmond Sport v De Graafschap - 1.55 De Graaf

  • 1st half outcome: Helmond have lost the first half in 5/8 home matches against top-six teams while De Graafschap have won the first half in 4/6 away matches. De Graafschap have scored first in 4/6 away matches.

Helmond (15th)

  • Only 3 wins.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Conceded in each of their last 8 matches.
  • 4/4 defeats v top 7, albeit 3 came away. Helmond did score in each defeat.
  • All 7 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

De Graafschap (2nd )

  • Unbeaten.
  • Both teams scored in last 4 away matches.
  • Have led in 4/6 away matches at halftime.
  • 6 of 9 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • A worrying amount of draws for De Graafschap away from home. That might keep their unbeaten run going but a win is no gimme here.
  • Helmond are conceding, De Graaf are scoring. Helmond tend to score in defeat v the top 7 so that is the ideal expectation here.
  • You may want to lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. De Graafschap score 6/9 away goals first half.

Jong PSV Eindhoven v SC Telstar - 2.38 SC

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 14/20 Jong PSV home matches and +3.5 goals in 10/20 Jong PSV home matches. Telstar have won 6/9 away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • Unattractive betting market in this lesser league.

Jong PSV (18th)

  • Unbeaten in 3 matches at home.
  • 2 wins and a draw last 3 home matches.
  • No clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • All defeats v the top 10, the majority away matches though.
  • 6 goals scored last 1/2 hour of matches at home.

Telstar (7th)

  • A draw and 3 consecutive wins.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Both teams scored last 5 away matches.
  • Unbeaten v 14th and lower.
  • 8 of 12 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • The market is inconclusive but on Challenge Table form, Telstar are unbeaten v 14th and lower. Jong PSV tend to lose to the top 10, albeit these losses have largely come away.

Jong AZ Alkmaar v MVV Maastricht - 2.36 Jong AZ

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/11 Jong AZ home matches and +3.5 goals in 6/11 Maastricht away matches. Maastricht have scored first in 14/20 away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • 2 wins v 3 wins.
  • 2 Bottom 4 sides. No thanks.

NEC Nijmegen v FC Oss - 1.5 NEC

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/11 NEC home matches and in 8/9 FC Oss away matches against top-six teams. FC Oss have lost by two or more goals in 11/18 away matches against top-six teams.

NEC (6th)

  • 3 wins and a 0-0 last 4 matches.
  • Only home loss came 1st match of the season.
  • 4 consecutive clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Wins v 17th and 18th at home.
  • 9 of 12 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

TOP Oss (16th)

  • Only 3 wins, 2 came at home.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Not played 2nd-8th away. Losses though when playing top 14 away.

Conclusions

  • Clean sheets for NEC suggests a strong defence. Their beating of 17th and 18th at home suggests they can cope with 16th.
  • if 0-0 at halftime, expect 2nd half goals.

Go Ahead Eagles v FC Dordrecht - 1.46 Go Ahead

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 7/10 G.A. Eagles home matches against bottom-six teams and +3.5 goals in 7/11 Dordrecht away matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 13/20 Dordrecht away matches.

Go Ahead Eagles (8th)

  • Unbeaten in 9 matches but 7 draws in those matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 4 draws in 5 matches at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Led at halftime in 6/7 at home.
  • Unbeaten at home.
  • 5 of 6 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Dordrecht (20th)

  • 5 losses and a draw last 6 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 5-1-1-3-3-5 goals conceded away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • All defeats away v the top 11.
  • 13 of 18 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Go Ahead eagles look well placed here given Dordrecht's recent form and huge concession of goals away.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

FC Volendam v Jong FC Utrecht - 1.64 FC Volendam

  • Match outcome: Jong Utrecht have lost 8/9 away matches against middle-third teams and they have lost by two or more goals in 6/9 such matches. Volendam have won the first half in 7/10 home matches against middle-third teams.

FC Volendam (12th)

  • 2 consecutive wins and beat strong Jong Ajax (1.4 favs) last match. 3 goals scored last 2 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Conceded in their last 11 matches and last 5 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only loss at home came v 1st.
  • Not played 4th-11th at home.

Jong FC Utrecht (9th)

  • No win in 4 matches.
  • 2 consecutive away defeats.
  • Conceded last 8 matches and last 4 away.
  • 2+ goals conceded last 3 away.
  • All wins came v 13th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Volendam are in rare form in their last 2 matches, dispatching of 1.4 favs Jong Ajax with 3 goals. That's 6 goals in 2 matches now. They could continue this good run v a Jong Utrecht conceding 2 goals in each of their last 4 away matches.
  • Both teams could score.
  • Noticeably for Jong Utrecht - wins came v 13th and lower. Will that extend up to 12th? That's the dilemma.

Excelsior v FC Eindhoven - 1.72 Excelsior

  • Asian handicap: Excelsior have won by two or more goals in 4/6 home matches while FC Eindhoven have lost by two or more goals in 7/10 trips to top-six teams. FC Eindhoven have lost 8/10 away matches against top-six teams.

Excelsior (5th)

  • 5 consecutive home wins ended last home match.
  • 2+ goals conceded in each of their last 4 home matches.
  • All defeats came v the top 7.
  • 100% wins at home v 9th and lower.
  • 13 of 18 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

FC Eindhoven (11th)

  • Only 2 wins in 9 matches.
  • No clean sheet.
  • 5 consecutive away losses.
  • 2+ goals conceded away last 4 matches.

Conclusions

  • On form, I must be with Excelsior here although FC Eindhoven do have a cluster of wins around 6th placed teams in the league. Still, no clean sheet for FC Eindhoven suggests they will concede at some point. 5 consecutive home wins for Excelsior is solid momentum.

Almere City v NAC Breda - 2.32 Almere City

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 14/16 Almere City home matches against top-six teams and in 4/5 NAC Breda away matches against middle-third teams. NAC Breda have drawn the first half in 3/5 away matches against middle-third teams.

Almere (10th)

  • Unbeaten at home.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Both teams scored last 4 at home.
  • Scored first in 5/6 at home.
  • Not played the top 7 at home.

NAC Breda (3rd)

  • No win in 4 matches.
  • 2-1-2-2 goals scored in their last 4 away matches. 2-2 and 4-2 though away last 2 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored last 8 matches and last 6 away.
  • Not met the top 10 away.
  • All away wins v 16th and lower.
  • 8 of 10 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Gaps in form cloud this. Almere not played top 7 at home. NAC not met top 10 away.
  • Both teams could score today.
  • 0-0 at halftime is vulnerable 2nd half. NAC tend to score 2nd half and Almere have failed to score in only 2 matches.