Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

DRT Daily Research Bulletin, May 8, 2015

Where I mention BANKER below, this signifies those matches where I think the favourites should win. These matches I would personally prioritise as regards DRT.

Remember the strategies:

Lay the 0-0 halftime score in certain signalled matches

Lay the 0-0 2nd half in matches where goals were expected but have not yet materialised

Lay the 2-2 scoreline, especially early on in matches. 2-2 shows us that teams are scoring and conceding.

Lay the away team leading 0-2 before halftime, especially if they are favourites. The home team is usually galvanised by the halftime team talk.

Lay the underdog if they score first in certain matches (especially BANKER matches where I would back the BANKERS if they conceded first at enhanced odds).

Lay the underdog scoring early in the first half, in the HALF TIME market, especially in BANKER matches.

Do note matches where one team is red carded. The opponents do tend to score next more often than not.

Sheffield United took the lead yesterday but lost 1-2 care of a 90th minute Swindon winner. It was a tough match to research, given the importance of the match. Napoli scored first against Dnipro in another important match, a Europa League semi-final. Another match tough to research because tactics play a big part in 2 legged affairs. Indeed, Dnipro got the away goal. Sevilla impressed with a 3-0 home win in the 2nd Europa League semi-final. We should be able to get an angle into the 2nd legs now we have something to work with.

Tennis wise, Serena Williams I layed at 1.12 but She was again too good for Navarro who is playing in rarified air.  Tsonga nearly won the first set but Berdych got the win 7-5 first set.  1.04 Nadal. I hope you layed it. He was 1.17 after a couple of matches. I actually turned into a backer then. 1.17 is massive so early in the first set when Nadal was 1.04 pre-match. It's nearly 4 times the price. Value is in the eye of the beholder. Nadal won 2-0.

At last, the Spanish v Spanish encounter that produced precisely what I wanted. Fernando Verdasco won the first set. That was all I wanted. I layed Verdasco and David Terrier (Ferrer) won the next 2 sets.

Andy Murray was absolutely emphatic against Granollers. I think Monfils softened up Marcel for Murray! 2-0 sets  . 2-0 to Nishikori . I layed him after the first set but he won in 2 straight sets. Still, like football, if we are laying at low odds and backing at high odds, then it's ok.  Milos Raonic won 2-0 too so there was no DRT there.

The Ferrer match was the winner yesterday.

On to today....

6pm - Galatasaray v Torku Konyaspor  - 1.25 home

Standout Stats

  • 9 Galatasary wins in the last 10 head to heads. 5 clean sheets in the last 7 matches.
  • This is 2nd v 9th in the Turkish Lig.Galatasary are on the same number of points as Besiktas.Konyaspor are in mid table mediocrity. They have nothing really to play for and are not going down.

Galatasary

  • 5 matches remain this season and it is a 3 horse race for the title.
  • 2 match home winning streak
  • No defeat in 9 at home
  • 2 consecutive clean sheets
  • 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
  • 7 wins and 2 draws in their last 9 home matches.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • Had 8 matches in 9 where both teams scored but now 2 consecutive clean sheets
  • Only 1 loss at home.
  • All wins bar a draw v 7th and lower at home
  • 79% over 2.5 goals at home
  • Both teams scored in 71% of home matches.

Konyaspor

  • Scored and conceded in their last 2 away matches.
  • Only 1 loss in 8 matches came away last time out.
  • Only 2 away wins.
  • No win home or away v 5th or above. No win away v 15th and higher.
  • 3 0-0's away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • A must win for Galatasary today who have 4 wins in their last 5 matches and 7 wins in 9 matches. Konyaspor are in decent enough form but have no win home or away v 5th and above and no win away v 15th and higher. Gala tend to win v teams around Konyaspor in the league.
  • Over 2.5 goals is likely today and may involve both sides scoring given 71% both teams scored at home.
  • Lay Konyaspor if they score first.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7pm - ESTAC Troyes v Arles  - 1.38 home

Standout Stats

  • 0-0, 1-0 Troyes, 3-0 Arles, 0-4 Troyes in recent head to heads. The 0-4 was this season.
  • This is top v bottom in French Ligue 2.

Troyes

  • There are 3 matches left this season and Troyes have already won the title, making this a dead rubber. Arles are down. If they win the 3 remaining matches, their goal difference is such that they will remain in the bottom 3

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Dead rubbers are not tradeable for me. I do hope I've got the maths right here!
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7pm - Dijon v Chateauroux  - 1.38 home

Standout Stats

  • 2-1 Dijon and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 4th v 19th in French Ligue 2. Dijon still have plenty to motivate them. They could enter the top 3 with a win (dependent on how 2nd and 3rd do of course). Chateauroux are 6 points from 3rd bottom which is still the relegation zone, with 3 matches remaining. It all looks lost for them, not mathematically so, but logically.

Dijon

  • Only 2 defeats in 13 matches were 1-0 losses.
  • 11 under 2.5 goals matches in their last 13 matches. Recent scorelines have been 1-1, 0-1 loss, 1-0 loss, 1-1, 0-1 win, 1-0 win, 0-0.
  • Dijon have trouble scoring at home, scoring only 1-1-1-1-0-1-1 recently.
  • 3 consecutive clean sheets.
  • 3 losses at home v 1st, 13th and 15th
  • Beat all bottom 4 at home with clean sheets v 3rd bottom and bottom.
  • 29% over 2.5 goals at home
  • No 0-0 at home.

Chateauroux

  • No win in 12 away
  • No draw in 11 overall
  • Conceded in their last 12 away
  • Failed to score in their last 7 away
  • Last 3 wins were at home, but surrounded by 8 defeats.
  • Only 4 clean sheets all season
  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 7 matches.
  • Only away win v bottom side
  • No 0-0 away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Lay any late 0-0 here.
  • Lay any late draw. Chateauroux keep avoiding draws.
  • This is a must win really for Dijon in the hope of a play off or a 2nd place. Chateauroux must win really byt have failed to score in their last 7 away, 5 of their last 7 overall and only won 1 away v bottom.
  • The concern here is Dijon having trouble scoring more than 1 goal
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7:30pm - Hamburg v Freiburg  - 2.22 home

Standout Stats

  • 1-1 and 0-0 in the last 2 head to heads. This is not a match which greatly appeals on the surface of it. Let's see though.
  • This is 14th v 16th in the Bundesliga. This is a relegation 6 pointer which is why I don't really want to research it.
  • Freiburg are out of the bottom 3 with a win. Hamburg put even more distance between themselves and the relegation zones with a win
  • 2 consecutive wins now for Hamburg after a run of 9 without a win.
  • Hamburg have lost 5 and won 1 v teams 11th and lower at home.
  • Freiburg have drawn their last 2 away matches, latterly 2-2.
  • Against 10th and lower away, Freiburg have only lost 1 match.They have 1-1 and 2-2 draws v 15th and 18th away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • This is too tough to call. I note that both sides have been scoring and conceding in their recent matches. Given the importance of this match today, both teams could reasonably score in a competitive match.
  • And that's it I'm afraid. 2 very poor sides.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7:30pm - Paris St-G v Guingamp  - 1.15 home

Standout Stats

  • Guingamp at home are very competitive but keep losing 2-0 when they turn up in Paris.
  • This is 1st v 10th in Ligue 1

PSG

  • 3 matches remaining this season, 2 at home and 1 away. PSG have a slender 3 point gap in 1st place. This therefore is a must win today against a team in mid-table mediocrity. Guingamp are 9 points above the relegation zone with 9 possible points remaining. You get the feeling they are safe.
  • 5 match home winning run, 6 overall.
  • No defeat in 17 at home
  • Scored and conceded in their last 6 home matches.
  • PSG are scoring for fun recently, 4-2-3-3-3-6-3-2 scored recently .
  • They have failed to score in only 4 matches this season
  • Have only conceded 2 goals twice at home, and still did not lose.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home
  • 22 first half and 21 2nd half goals scored at home

Guingamp

  • 2 match winning streak
  • 2 consecutive clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 5 away matches.
  • Only 3 wins in 10 matches.
  • 2 consecutive 2-0 wins.
  • Against top 4 away, they have lost all of those matches. Only 1 win away v teams above them in the league.
  • Only 1 0-0 away
  • 10 0-0's at halftime away (58% of matches)
  • have conceded 10 goals in the last 1/4 hour away.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • This looks a great chance for PSG to win and heap the pressure on 2nd place. Guingamp keep losing in Paris and have lost to all top 4 away. PSG are scoring for fun and are likely to score 3 goals again.
  • 1.15 shots should score before halftime so lay the 0-0 halftime score.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7:45pm- Brentford v Middlesbrough  - 2.68 home

Standout Stats

  • This is a Championship play-off and I'm afraid, like the Europa League semi-finals, this is far too hard to get an angle into given the importance of the match (the 2.68 for the favourite tells its own story! The market hasn't got a clue.)
  • Middlesbrough won 4-0 and 0-1 in the league this season. Enough to favour them today? I'm not so sure.
  • Against the top 7 away for Boro, Boro lost to 1st, 2nd, 6th and 7th and beat Norwich and Brentford 0-1
  • Brentford at home v top 6 this season were poor. They beat Bournemouth, but lost v 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 6th.
  • In the League One play-off yesterday the form side  scored first but lost eventually .

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • On bare form Middlesbrough are favoured based on this season's form. But this is a one-off match of great importance.
  • Back 0-0 pre match perhaps given that both sides will not want to concede first. Lay off at halftime if lucky enough to get a 0-0 at halftime.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7:45pm - Eibar v Espanyol  - 2.72 home

Standout Stats

  • 1-2 to Eibar earlier in the season.
  • The odds are the same as the Brentford match above, which tells us the market hasn't got a scooby-doo!
  • This is 17th v 10th in La Liga. Eibar are a point above relegation and must win. Espanyol are 10th, safe and 8 points below 6th place

Eibar

  • 14 losses in their last 16 matches saw only 1 draw.
  • 7 losses and a 1-0 win v Malaga in their last 8 at home.
  • Failed to score in 9 of their last 14 matches.
  • No draw in 12 at home
  • Only 1 win at home v top 11 was that 1-0 v Malaga.
  • 8 losses in 10 v top 11 at home
  • No 0-0
  • Only 2 0-0's at home
  • 18 of 27 goals conceded at home came first half.

Espanyol

  • Only 1 loss in 9 matches was against Barcelona.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 2 away.
  • 4 draws and a win v 15th and lower away from home.
  • 0-0's away v 18th and 20th.
  • 65% over 2.5 goals away
  • 2 0-0's away
  • Scored 11 goals away in the last 1/4 hour of matches.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • On the bare form, Espanyol are the form side surely. Only Barcelona have beaten them in their last 9 matches for goodness' sake! Eibar have lost 14 of their last 16 matches but beat Malaga 1-0 at home so can surprise.
  • This is a must win for Eibar and that may be the reason behind the negative odds for Espanyol who, let's remember, were beaten by Eibar earlier in the season.
  • Not a match which appeals given the time of the season and the match odds. I would though lay Eibar late on if they lead, 80th+ minute, given the number of goals scored by Espanyol away from home in the last 1/4 of an hour.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------