Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Don't dismiss the shorties. These can sometimes be the best games to trade. The assumption is for goals so if no goals, look to 3/4 goals.

18:30 - Germany v Saudi Arabia - 1.07 Germany

  • I'm going to stick my neck out here. Saudi Arabia will not be winning the World Cup. There I said it.
  • This should be an exercise in practising for the Golden Boot award which Germany have won quite frequently in recent World Cups.
  • 4 goals is a realistic target for the Germans, 3-0, 3-1, any other home score but the odds will be terribly short. Little in the way of value.
  • Look perhaps for a goal before halftime if 0-0 after 20 minutes.

19:00 - Croatia v Senegal - 1.80 Croatia

  • Nigeria, Argentina and Iceland greet Croatia in Russia so practice v an African side today.
  • It took a 69th and 90th minute goal for Brazil to beat Croatia.
  • Croatia have played South American opposition in the last 4 friendlies.
  • 5 consecutive home wins to nil for Croatia in friendlies but the likes of Cyprus, Moldova and San Marino.
  • 2-1 v Mali back in 2014. No real African nation form.
  • Senegal play Poland, Japan and Colombia in their group in Russia.
  • Consecutive 0-0's v Bosnia and Luxembourg in friendlies should end tonight. I would lay any late 0-0 here as these sequences are hard to continue.
  • That's 3 draws for Senegal in friendlies. Only 1 loss for Senegal in all competitions since March 2016 which on the surface looks superb but on scanning the teams, they are predominantly African Nations.
  • Tough to research this. I would lay any late 0-0.

19:00 - Switzerland v Japan - 1.7 Switzerland

  • Only 1 loss in 21 matches for Switzerland in all competitions came v Portugal.
  • 4 clean sheets in 5 matches. Spain only managed a goal in their recent friendly.
  • 4 wins and a 1-1 in home friendlies for the Swiss.
  • Only 2 wins in 9 matches for Japan v Korea and China is poor form.
  • Loss v Korea Republic, draw v Mali, Loss v Ukraine and Loss v Ghana for Japan in recent friendlies.
  • 4 losses and 2 draws last 6 friendlies for Japan. Are they simply experimenting in friendlies?
  • If that answer is a yes, we must side with the Swiss who have few holes in defence it seems. I cannot see the Swiss losing today and would love the Japs to eye the first goal so we could lay them.

19:45 - Poland v Chile - 2.00 Poland

  • Senegal, Colombia and Japan away Poland in Russia.
  • Chile did not qualify for the World Cup.
  • 0-0-0-3 scored by the Poles in their recent friendlies. They failed to score v Uruguay, Mexico and Nigeria. A feeling I think that Lewandowski was rested for some, or all of those matches.
  • 2-2 v Korean Republic until the last second winner for the Poles. Yet to convince in these friendlies.
  • Another South American side today. Is this match a candidate for backing 0-0 pre match and  looking to cash out if 0-0 around 35th minute, ideally to halftime?
  • A surprise Chile are not in the World Cup. Their recent friendlies v European opponents, saw 1-2 win v Sweden, 0-0 v Denmark, 3-2 loss to Romania and 0-1 v Chile.
  • Little to get my teeth into  for this match.

IRISH PREMIER DIVISION

19:45 - Bohemians v Derry - 2.45 Bohs

  • 4 consecutive Derry wins in head to heads.

Bohs (8th)

  • Only 1 loss in 5 matches.
  • 2 consecutive 1-1 draws.
  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 at home.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • All losses bar 1 have come v the top 4. 2 losses this season v Derry.

Derry (4th)

  • 6 losses, a draw and a win last 8 matches.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • 3 away wins have come v 7th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Strictly on form we'd have to favour Derry. They are conceding 2 goals though with regularity but v 7th and lower away from home tend to find their away wins.
  • Bohs are improving with 2 1-1 draws but have a 100% loss record v the top 4. Lay the Bohs if the Bohs score first.

19:45 - Waterford v St Pats - 2.00 Waterford

  • 2-0 Waterford and 1-0 St Pats in the last 2 head to heads.

Waterford (3rd)

  • Only 1 home loss. 2-0 win v St Pats at home this season.All wins at home v top 7.
  • 3 losses in 4 matches though albeit 2 of the losses came away. Their first home loss of the season came in that cluster of defeats.
  • Scored in their last 10 at home.

St Pats (5th)

  • 4 wins and 3 losses last 7 matches.
  • Conceded 3 goals in each of their last 3 matches.
  • All defeats away v the top 5, failing to score in 5 of those 6 matches.

Conclusions

  • Another 'on form' match....on form, Waterford should not be losing today. I'd give St Pats a chance were they playing at home.
  • Note though that Waterford did actually lose their last home match, their first home loss of the season.
  • DO expect Waterford to score. They tend to score at home.
  • The market is not too sure about Waterford to give them an odds on quote.

19:45 - Dundalk v Limerick - 1.12 Dundalk

  • 2nd v 9th.
  • 2-2-5-3-2-8-0-5 goals scored at home v 4th and lower. That ties in with a 1.12 quote which should see 3/4 goals.
  • Dundalk are unbeaten at home and this should be a win to nil.
  • Limerick did score in a 2-1 defeat to 1st placed Cork and were spanked 8-0 by Dundalk. 2-8-3-6 goals conceded v top 4 away again is reflective of what we'd expect a side v a 1.12 odds side to concede.
  • We really should expect a goal or two before halftime but the lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market odds are likely to be too high to lay, unless you delay.

IRISH FIRST DIVISION

19:45 - Athlone v Shelbourne - 1.11 Shelbourne

  • 4-1 and 7-0 Shelbourne in the last 2 league head to heads. Like the match above, this is about justifying the odds and seeing if the likely goals are going to come.
  • All defeats bar 2 draws for Athlone.
  • Athlone have not kept a clean sheet.
  • 0-1 and 1-3 at home v 1st and 2nd, 1-1 v 4th so they may put up some resistance playing 3rd today.
  • 7-0 Shelbourne earlier in the season though.
  • 100% wins for Shelbourne v 8th and lower. They have only scored 2+ goals once away.
  • The value could be in backing under 2.5 goals as a trading angle today if you think Shelbourne may struggle to score 2+ goals away from home. But really a 7-0 spanking earlier in the season suggests more of the same. 1.11 odds usually suggests 3/4 goals from Shelbourne.
  • The value is in unders and perhaps 0-1 or 0-2 based on 1) Athlone v top 4 at home and 2) Shelbourne trouble scoring 2+ away. The logical choice may be the any other away score.

19:45 - Cabinteely v Longford - 1.85 Longford

  • 3 consecutive wins to nil for Longford in head to heads. They have not conceded in the last 5 head to heads.

Cabinteely (7th)

  • No draw this season. 2 consecutive wins at home v top and bottom!
  • 4 wins in 5 matches at home.
  • Very weird home form. 3 wins v top 3, losses v 5th 8th and 9th.

Longford (4th)

  • Playing 4th placed Longford today.
  • 4 wins and 2 draws last 6 matches for Longford so good unbeaten momentum.
  • Longford have scored and conceded last 4 matches without defeat.
  • Longford have failed to score only twice this season.
  • 3 wins and a draw away v top 5.

Conclusions

  • Cabinteely are unreadable at home. Wins v top 3 but losses v 5th and lower. Will those wins extend to the top 4? That's what we don't know.
  • Longford have scored and conceded last 4 without defeat so lay Cabinteely if Cabinteely scores first on that basis.

19:45 - Galway v Finn Harps - 1.95 Galway

  • 2 Galway wins and a Finn win in the last 3 head to heads.

Galway (5th)

  • 2 losses and a 0-0 last 3 matches. That ended a run of 4 wins in 5.
  • Only home loss though was v 1st in the league, a 0-1 so Galway should fancy themselves at home.
  • Not conceded that 2nd goal in a home match.
  • 3+ goals scored at home v 7th and lower. Does that extend to 6th?

Finn Harps(6th)

  • Only 1 win in 5 came v the bottom side. Poorish form of late?
  • 2 consecutive away draws.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Only away losses came v the top 2.
  • Beat 4th and 8th away.

Conclusions

  • A match where an argument can be made for both sides. Galway could threaten 3 goals as they have done v 7th and lower at home. Does that extend to 6th?
  • Only 1 home loss v 1st makes Galway worth following at home, but then Finn Harps have only lost away to the top 2.
  • Who are you more persuaded by? Tough to call.

19:45 - UCD v Drogheda - 2.00 UCD

  • 2 score draws and a win for the last 3 head to heads at UCD.

UCD (1st)

  • 3 losses this season came away from home.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 home match without losing.
  • 2-1 and 1-1 v top 4 at home.

Drogheda (2nd)

  • 4 wins to nil and a 1-1 last 5 matches.
  • Scored in every match.
  • 1-1-1-1 goals scored last 4 away.
  • 1-1 away v 3rd, 0-1 away v 5th, 2-1 loss away v 6th and 3-2 loss away v 7th.

Conclusions

  • Again strictly on form, we would be with UCD today. Drogheda look distinctly ropey away from home. When they did score 2 goals they lost.
  • I would look to lay Drogheda if Drogheda scored first. I think both teams could score as occurs in UCD matches without UCD losing.
  • 1-1 an obvious call with a 2-1 home win?