Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

DRT Daily Research Bulletin, January 8, 2021

I will do a review/preview video at DRT Facebook. And see you on Telegram throughout the day albeit the matches are sporadic.

ENGLISH FA CUP

19:45 - Aston Villa v Liverpool - 2.00 Liverpool

  • I don't know where to start with this one! Liverpool have suddenly had trouble scoring goals, at least in the Premier League, and Aston Villa have quite simply impressed.
  • What do we read into Aston Villa's inability to beat Chelsea and Man Utd in their last 2 matches? They are meeting another Marquee club.
  • 1-1, 0-0, 1-0 loss for Liverpool in their last 3 matches.
  • The question is whether we will see first teams here for both sides and whether Liverpool will cure their inability to score in 2 matches.

19:45 - Wolves v Crystal Palace - 2.00 Wolves

  • Only 1 win in 9 League cup matches in 90 minutes for Wolves. 2 consecutive defeats. 3 penalty matches recently for Wolves.
  • 1-0 loss, 0-0, 0-0 for Palace in their 3 matches.
  • No form lines here and a match further muddied by possible team changes.

SPANISH LA LIGA

20:00 - Celta Vigo v Villarreal - 2.37 Villareal

Celta Vigo - 8th

  • Only 1 loss in 7 matches came v Real Madrid last match. 5 wins in 7 matches - they have been in excellent form.
  • 4 consecutive home wins.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of their last 4 home matches.
  • Scored in their last 5 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • All home defeats came v the top 5.
  • All defeats bar 1 came v the top 6.

Villareal - 4th

  • Only 2 losses, did lose last away match v Sevilla.
  • Conceded in their last 5 and last 5 away.
  • Winless v the top 11, albeit 6 draws and 2 defeats away v 5th and 6th.
  • 6/8 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Villareal are struggling to score that 2nd goal and win v the top 11, albeit score draws suggest some fight if Celta score first. The recent away loss v Sevilla was unlucky in that Sevilla were gifted a 10th minute penalty.
  • As stark as Villareal's form is v the top 11, Celta equally have a 100% defeat record v the top 5 and meet 4th today. That may signal another score draw worst case for Villareal today?
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

19:30 - M'gladbach v Bayern Munich - 1.61 Bayern Munich

Mgladbach - 7th

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • Draw, draw, win, draw, win, draw, loss at home scoring 1-1-1-1-4-1-1 goals. The 4 was scored v a very poor Schalke.
  • Failed to score only first match of the season.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 at home.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • Scored first in 6/7 at home.
  • 1-0 win at home v 2nd.
  • 6/7 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Bayern - 1st

  • Only 1 loss all season.
  • 3 consecutive wins.
  • Scored and conceded in 12 matches.
  • Late Xmas present last match. 0-2 down at halftime, won 5-2.
  • Scored in every match.
  • Scored and conceded last 7 away.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 7 goals scored away 31st-45th minute.

Conclusions

  • If Mgladbach cannot solve this 1 goal a game at home conundrum then 1-0 is the best they can hope for. In that case, lay them if they score first but cover the 1-0 as they did beat 2nd in the league 1-0.
  • A timely reminder from Bayern Munich that they do concede, as seen by 17th in the league leading 0-2 last match. That has potential today.
  • Bayern do the majority of their conceding 2nd half so note that if they keep it quiet first half.

PORTUGUESE PRIMEIRA LIGA

19:00 - Benfica v Tondela - 1.17 Benfica

Benfica - 3rd

  • Only 2 losses.
  • 4 wins and a draw last 5 matches.
  • 5 wins and a loss last 6 home matches. Scored 2 goals in defeat.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • 2+ goals scored last 6 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 5/7 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Tondela - 13th

  • 3 wins all came at home.
  • 4 losses and a draw last 5 away matches.
  • Conceded last 5 away.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • All defeats away v the top 9.

Conclusions

  • Benfica's 1-1 v Santa Clara last match was a dropping of 3 points. I expect 2 goals from them today and that should secure the win. Losses v the top 9 away for Tondela.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

19:00 - Rio Ave v Portimonense - 2.15 Rio Ave

Rio Ave - 16th

  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Only 1 home win.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 11th and lower.
  • 4/6 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Portimonense - 14th

  • 3 wins, 2 came at home.
  • 5 losses in 6 matches away.
  • Conceded last 6 away.
  • 4 consecutive away defeats.
  • Not played bottom 4 away.

Conclusions

  • Portimonense have not played the bottom 4 away so we have nothing to gauge them by albeit 2 clean sheet matches at home v the bottom 4 (who they play today).
  • Rio Ave are unbeaten home and away v 11th and lower. Enough to expect of them?

21:00 - Famalicao v Porto - 1.40 Porto

Famalicao - 15th

  • Only 2 wins.
  • Failed to score last 3 matches.
  • 1-1-2-2-2-0 goals scored at home.
  • Conceded last 6 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Opponents scored first in 5/6 at home.
  • Not beaten a top 5 side.

Porto - 2nd

  • 6 consecutive wins.
  • Only 1 away loss and still scored 2 goals.
  • Scored last 12 matches.
  • Scored 2+ goals last 4 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 100% wins v 8th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Famalicao have not beaten a top 5 side. Porto have beaten all sides 8th and lower that they have played.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

DUTCH EERSTE DIVISIE

17:45 - De Graafschap v Telstar - 1.53 De Graafschap

De Graafschap - 4th

  • 1 loss in 4 came last match.
  • Failed to score only 3 matches, did concede last match.
  • 2 losses at home came v 1st and 6th.
  • 2+ goals scored in all home matches v 5th and lower.
  • 8/13 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Telstar - 8th

  • 2 losses, 2 wins, 2 losses, 2 wins recently.
  • 1-1, 1-1, 1-0 loss, 1-2 win, 1-2 win away.
  • Conceded last 8 away matches.
  • Have lost 3 matches v the top 3.
  • 73% of goals scored and conceded came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Telstar recently are in decent nick away, and we saw another side recently Angers (1-2 win v Lille) get a positive result.
  • Both sides have strong 2nd half scoring trends so note that.
  • Will De Graafschap's 2+ goals at home v 5th and lower see them right? Telstar have, though, kept it to a single goal conceded recently away.

17:45 - MVV Maastricht v Jong Utrecht - 2.45 MVV Maastricht

  • Leave this to the in-play stats. 2.45 the favourite in what is a secondary league in the Eerste Divisie.

17:45 - NEC Nijmegen v Excelsior - 1.85 NEC Nijmegen

NEC NIjmegen - 5th

  • 2 consecutive losses ended an unbeaten run stretching back to 3rd October 2020.
  • Only 2 home losses were 0-1.
  • Conceded in their last 5 at home.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 12th and lower - 2 + goals scored in all bar 1 of those matches.

Excelsior - 14th

  • 6 losses and a win last 7 matches.
  • 3 consecutive away defeats.
  • Conceded last 7 matches.
  • Not played the top 6 away but not beaten 7th-15th away.
  • 7 goals scored last 15 mins of away matches.

Conclusions

  • If NEC lost at home it tends to be 0-1 so lay Excelsior if they score first and cover the 0-1 scoreline by laying over 1.5 goals.
  • We can infer, though, that in not meeting the top 6 away, if Excelsior are not beating 7th-15th away from home, they'll struggle today.
  • NEC have been conceding at home but should not lose if conceding today. They have 2+ goals in them consistently v 12th and lower, and meet 14th today.

20:00 - Almere v FC Eindhoven - 1.60 Almere

Almere - 2nd

  • Only 1 loss.
  • 5 wins and a 2-2 last 6 matches.
  • Failed to score in only first match of the season.
  • 8 consecutive home wins.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home, only once at fulltime.
  • 12 goals scored at home last 1/2 hour of matches.

Eindhoven - 9th

  • Only 1 win in 4 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 6 away matches was a 0-1.
  • 0-0-0-1-1-1 goals scored away recently.
  • Scored in their last 8 matches.
  • All defeats this season have come v the top 8.
  • 5/7 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • We must be with Almere with just their single loss all season, 8 consecutive home wins and Eindhoven's defeats congregating v the top 8. Eindhoven's lack of goals should seal their fate.

20:00 - Cambuur v Volendam - 1.50 Cambuur

Cambuur - 1st

  • All wins bar a single loss since 25th September 2020.
  • 6 wins and a loss last 7 home matches.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • 2+ goals scored last 7 home matches.

Volendam - 6th

  • 2 consecutive defeats.
  • Conceded in their last 6 away matches.
  • 2-3 goals conceded v the top 3.

Conclusions

  • Volendam have conceded 2+ goals v the top 3 and with Cambuur scoring 2+ goals in each of their last 7 matches at home suggests a solid foundation for Cambuur to get the win.

20:00 - Go Ahead Eagles v TOP Oss - 2.05 Go Ahead Eagles

Go Ahead Eagles - 7th

  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • 3 wins in 4 matches came away.
  • Have failed to score in their last 2 home matches.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime, 3 at fulltime. A poor conversion rate.
  • Topsy turvy form at home. 3/3 clean sheets v the top 9, 3 defeats and a 0-0 v 12th-18th.
  • 5/7 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • And I break it off here. Both sides are not showing any strong form patterns in their seasonal form, to enable me to get a read on this match. TOP Oss for example have 4 3-0 defeats away yet are unbeaten away v 5th, 6th, and 8th and yes, they play 7th today!! I call these Jeffrey Archer's. Simply unreadable.

20:00 - NAC Breda v Roda - 1.73 NAC Breda

NAC Breda - 3rd

  • Only 1 loss in 7 matches was a 0-1.
  • 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
  • A 0-0 and 2 consecutive wins 3-0.
  • No draw in 9 at home.
  • All defeats bar 1 came v the top 5.
  • 3 of the 5 defeats were 1-0.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 6th-19th.
  • 12 of 18 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 9 goals scored last 30 mins of home matches.

Roda - 10th

  • Only 1 loss in 7 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 8 away matches came last match.
  • Not beaten a top 9 side home or away.
  • 3-2-4 goals conceded in losses v the top 4 away.
  • 64% of goals scored, 62% of goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • I fancy NAC Breda here not to lose. Look at that solidity v 6th-19th home and away.
  • Roda concede 2+ goals away v the top 4.