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After an Europa League night off last night, there is little to excite me tonight. A lot of matches with teams in reasonable form. Stuttgart are superb at home but Leverkusen unbeaten in 9. Bordeaux are strong favourites but have only one win in 9 matches. Dundee have beaten Rangers recently, a Rangers side who beat Aberdeen, but Aberdeen are odds on favourites. In the Championship it's 3rd v 4th. NEC Nijmegen look the only dependable match today. Do remember with the Dutch Eerste Divisie, there is a chance of over 2.5 goals or both teams scoring if you want a speculative accumulator on over 1.5 or 2.5 goals and both teams to score you'll always get a good run for your money.

19:30 - Stuttgart v Leverkusen - 2.18 Leverkusen

  • Leverkusen are unbeaten in the last 12 head to heads.

Stuttgart (13th)

  • Superb at home. 5 wins and a draw in 6.
  • 2-3-2 goals scored at home.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in 8 matches.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • Scored first in 5/6 at home.

Leverkusen (9th)

  • Unbeaten in 9 matches.
  • Scored in every match.
  • 1-1-1-1-5-1-1 goals conceded away.
  • Not led at halftime away.
  • Lost away to 12th and 14th.
  • 10 of 11 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Head to heads are emphatically with Leverkusen. Stuttgart though are in rocking good form at home.
  • Leverkusen are unbeaten in 9 matches. I am concerned with Leverkusen's scoring away. 1 goal only in 6 matches.
  • If it wasn't for the head to heads, I would lay Leverkusen if Leverkusen scored first

19:45 - Bordeaux v Strasbourg - 1.69 Bordeaux

Bordeaux (11th)

  • Only 1 win in 9 matches came at home last match.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 home loss was v Monaco so despite the recent poor form, it seems Bordeaux are tough to beat at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • All wins v teams below them. All defeats v teams above them.
  • Conceded only 1 goal 1st half at home.

Strasbourg (16th)

  • Only 1 loss in 9 matches so these newly promoted guys are performing well.
  • 4-1-2-3-1-1-3-2 goals conceded away though.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 8 away.
  • 1-1 away v 8th, 10th and 1-2 win v 12th.
  • 14 of 17 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • On form, Bordeaux tend to collect their wins v teams below them in the league. Strasbourg are conceding and conceding first away from home. I do note their recent good form and unbeaten run v teams 8th - 13th away.
  • Strasbourg may get on the score sheet today. They could be layable if scoring first. Bordeaux have scored 2/3 goals at home v teams below them in the league.
  • Bordeaux are excellent first half defensively. Strasbourg are dire 2nd half away defensively.

19:45 - Dundee v Aberdeen - 1.85 Aberdeen

  • 7 consecutive Aberdeen wins in head to heads.

Dundee (9th)

  • A draw and 2 wins last 3 matches. Included a 2-1 win v Rangers so Dundee have hope today partiuclarly as Aberdeen just lost to Rangers 1-2 their last match.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Strong 2nd half scoring and conceding pattern.
  • 3 wins, a 1-0 loss and a 1-1 draw v teams in the top 7.

Aberdeen

  • Only away loss v Rangers.
  • In 8 of 9 matches played v teams 7th and lower, Aberdeen scored at least 2 goals.
  • 3 losses in 4 matches now and conceded 2 goals at least in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime.
  • Only 1 0-0 away.

Conclusions

  • We might see a competitive Dundee here who against the top 7 at home have been excellent. Aberdeen are in poor form presently but that said they scored 3 and 2 goals away before failing to score v Rangers.
  • Ordinarily on form Aberdeen eye 2+ goals v teams 7th and lower. We could very well see both teams score today and the team scoring the 2 goals is likely to win.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

19:45 - Sheffield United v Bristol City - 2.2 Sheff

  • 1-2 Bristol and 1-3 Sheff in the last 2 head to heads.

Sheffield United (4th)

  • Only 1 draw and that came in the last home match.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 at home and last 5 overall.
  • All wins at home v the top 14 teams that they have played.
  • Tend to score most goals in the final 15 minutes of each half at home.

Bristol City (3rd)

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5.
  • No defeat in 9 away.
  • 3-3 away v 1st, 1-3 v 7th and 2-2 v 11th, do Bristol City change tactics v the top teams away and look to simply outscore?

Conclusions

  • Welcome to the Championship. A toughie this one v 2 top 4 teams obviously in good form.
  • I would lay any late draw just in the hope that Sheff Utd revert to their draw avoidance pattern.
  • I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market as Sheff Utd have had just the one all season.
  • Both teams could score today. Bristol City certainly play well away v top 10 and have 2/3 goals in them if we see their performances v the likes of the league leaders.
  • Sheff Utd themselves have beaten all of the top 14 teams they have played at home. It is  tough to split these 2.

19:00 - Willem II v Breda - 2.08 Willem II

  • These 2 last met in play off matches.

Willem II (14th)

  • 2-2-3-3 goals scored in their last 4 matches BUT 3-2-3-1 goals conceded in same matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Failed to score in only 1 of their last 11 matches.
  • In 6 of the last 8 matches, at least one team scored at least 3 goals.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 7 matches at home.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • All defeats v top 11.

Breda (15th)

  • Only 3 wins.
  • Only 1 away win.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 away.

Conclusions

  • We should expect goals today - that seems to be the norm with Willem II. With Breda keeping only 2 clean sheets, that should help.
  • If Willem II can score 2/3 goals again, that may be enough today against a Breda who have just the one away win.

20:00 - Alaves v Las Palmas - 2.34 Alaves

  • Consecutive 1-1's in head to heads.

Alaves (19th)

  • No draw sees only 3 wins.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Single win at home came v 15th.
  • No 0-0.
  • Opponents scored first in 6 of 7 matches at home.

Las Palmas (18th)

  • Only 3 wins. One came last match.
  • Only 1 away match.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 5 away matches.
  • Conceded in their last 7 away matches.
  • 13 of 16 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late draw if you think Alaves can keep avoiding the draw.
  • Both sides have 3 wins only so this really makes little appeal.
  • Do note Las Palmas concede the vast majority of their goals 2nd half so may be vulnerable if not conceding by halftime.

19:00 - Fortuna Sittard v Waalwijk - 1.66 Fortuna

  • Waalwijk have won the last 2 head to heads.

Fortuna Sittard (2nd)

  • 4 wins in 5 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 loss at home.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Only 3 0-0's at halftime.
  • 5 consecutive over 2.5 goals at home.
  • Scored 2+ goals in 3 consecutive home matches.
  • Only home loss v 1st in the league.
  • Scored first in 7/8 at home.

Waalwijk

  • 4 wins in 6 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • 3 defeats in 4 away matches.
  • No win in 7 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 11 of 12 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • On form Fortuna should not lose today.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market given Waalwijk tend to concede first half.
  • Fortuna, if scoring first, should lead at halftime.

19:00 - Go Ahead Eagles v Jong PSV - 2.42 Go Ahead Eagles

Go Ahead (14th)

  • 4 losses in 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Only 2 losses at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Opponents scored first in 5/8 at home.

Jong PSV (8th)

  • 5 wins in 7 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • 4 wins, a 0-0 and a single loss v teams below them in the league away from home.
  • 7 of 11 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Yet another accurate market. I can argue for either side. Go Ahead v top 10 2 wins and a draw. Jong PSV v teams below them in the league away tend to win.
  • If I had to choose, I would side with Jong PSV given Go Ahead have had trouble scoring recently.

I will not research the 3 matches below where the odds for the favourite is 2.5 or higher.

19:00 - Helmond Sport v FC Eindhoven - 2.52 Helmond

19:00 - Dordrecht v MVV Maastricht - 2.56 MVV

19:00 - Telstar v Emmen - 2.52 Telstar


19:00 - Volendam v Jong Utrecht - 1.53 Volendam

  • 2-2 and 2-4 Volendam in the last 2 head to heads.

Volendam (18th)

  • Only 2 wins.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 home win.
  • Scored in their last 6 matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 2-2 at home v 19th.
  • 10 of 13 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Jong Utrecht (20th)

  • Only 2 wins.
  • 7 defeats in 9 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 away.
  • No win in 8 away.
  • Not led at halftime away.
  • 2-2 draws away v 15th and 16th.
  • 11 of 14 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • 2 bottom 3 teams. A 1.53 favourite with only 1 win? No thanks.
  • A frustratingly difficult Dutch coupon this evening.
  • A messy set of stats too. 5 0-0's at halftime at home for Volendam but Jong are conceding heavily in the 1st half away.

19:00 - Almere City v De Graafschap - 1.96 de Graaf

  • 2 consecutive 2-1 De Graaf head to head wins. One was a friendly.

Almere City (10th)

  • Unbeaten in 5 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 14 of 16 matches.
  • No clean sheet.
  • Failed to score only in 2 away matches.
  • 3-2-3-1-3-3- goals scored in recent home matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime.
  • Unbeaten at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Lost away to top 3.
  • Score draws v 5th and 9th at home.
  • Scored first in 5/7 at home.

De Graafschap (4th)

  • Only 2 losses.
  • 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored in their last 10 matches.
  • No defeat in 8 away.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 5 draws away v teams 5th-18th.
  • 13 of 15 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • De Graaf are highly likely to score and score 2nd half. Almere have scored 3-2-3-1-3-3 in recent home matches, are unbeaten at home and highly likely to score too it seems.
  • It seems on form that Almere could score first and I would Lay Almere if they score first.

19:00 - FC Oss v NEC Nijmegen - 1.58 NEC

FC Oss (9th)

  • Only 1 win in 6 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches.
  • Only 4 under 2.5 goals matches.
  • Only 1 0-0.
  • Led at halftime in only one match.
  • Not beaten a top 10 team home or away.
  • 3-0 and 4-0 defeats v the top 3.

NEC (1st)

  • 9 wins in 10 matches.
  • 3 wins and a loss last 4 matches away.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Scored 2+ goals in their last 5 away matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Scored 2+ goals in their last 11 matches.
  • 2 losses came away v 5th and 7th.

Conclusions

  • NEC are more vulnerable away v top 7 and meet 9th today.
  • The fact remains that NEC are full of goals, scoring 2+ in their last 11 matches and that should be enough against an OSS who have already lost 3-0 and 4-0 v the top 3 and are yet to beat a top 10 side.
  • In the anticipation of goals, lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.