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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, July 7, 2017

Tennis again dominates today. The Irish Premier Division has only a couple of matches. My day is disrupted today. Apologies. I have had 2 long sessions under the belt and really enjoying it. I was looking forward to the same today. I will try and tweet @drtclub but may miss the 11:30 am openers.

Sorana Cirstea v Garbiñe Muguruza - 1.29 Muguruza

  • 66th v 6th.
  • Straight sets Muguruza win in 2017 Australia Open.
  • Cirstea is through because of Sands' misfortune.
  • The Strycova win 6-1 6-0 v Garbine at Eastbourne has me scratching my head. Where did that come from and what was the cause?
  • Cirstea should not be winning this from what I saw of her at Eastbourne, provided Garbine has rebooted since Eastbourne.

David Ferrer v Tomas Berdych - 1.21 Berdych

  • 32nd v 13th.
  • 7-7 head to heads. Berdych won the 2 in 2016 at about 1.7 odds.
  • Ferrer is here thanks to a Darcis retirement. I think this is a step too far for Ferrer.
  • He may be a thorn in the side but not win.
  • Ferrer should not be winning 3-0 if he goes 1-0 or 2-0 up.

Grigor Dimitrov v Dudi Sela - 1.11 Dimitrov

  • Obvious win for Grigor v Baggy. Sela delighted to have taken John Isner out.
  • On that basis, 1.11 is far too short for Grigor.
  • 4 consecutive head to head wins for Grigor though.
  • Sela took advantage of tie break king Isner.
  • Semi finals for Dimi at Queens where he lost to Lopez. He should eventually win. Why lay him at 1.11? For me it is too short off the bat.
  • Sela is a Challenger player and should be outclassed but if he can only do what he did v Isner we will have some occasions where Dimi's odds will rise.

Ernests Gulbis v Djokovic - 1.09 Djokovic

  • 169th v 2nd.
  • Novak tends to win head to heads but dropped a set last 2 set to heads.
  • Del Potro seemed to carry a hip injury, undisclosed beforehand. This will be the first test for Novak.
  • I will lay Novak at 1.1 here today. If Gulbis plays to yesterday's level, he will test Novak.

Alljaz Bedene v Gilles Muller - 1.4 Muller

  • 68th v 28th.
  • 3 setter on grass this year was won by Muller.
  • 5 setter and 4 setter so far for Bedene tells us if he wins first set here (and he could) he will not be winning 3-0.
  • Muller had an almighty tussle with Luke Rosol and I thought he was doomed. He hit a high of 7 and won the final 2 sets.
  • Look out today for high odds on Muller and him seemingly backed into a corner. As a grass court tournament winner and semi finalist, he is adept on grass. Do not forget that if all looks doomed today.

Kei Nishikori v Roberto Bautista Agut - 1.43 Kei

  • Kei is like Del Potro. He is prone to injury and in not disclosing said injury before a match.
  • 7th v 18th. Agut will be a strong opponent.
  • It is 4-0 Kei though in head to heads so he seems to have Agut's number.
  • 4 setter for Kei v 101st saw 2 tie breakers. He seems to be another player who, if fit, is backable if his odds drift out.
  • Kei retired in Halle. This goes back to my Del Potro mention above. If you can, watch this match to see if Kei is in good nick.
  • Comfortable for Agut to date.
  • Kei fits into the type of player Agut has trouble beating. Recent victors have included Alexander Zverev, Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal.
  • I could see Agut maybe getting a set but not winning.

Victoria Azarenka v Heather Watson - 1.47 Vic

  • Guernsey's Finest takes on an Azarenka on the come back trail and on that basis, Azarenka is tough to read.
  • 319th v 111th. Ignore the rankings for Azarenka.
  • 26th ranked Sevastova was the latest victim of Guernsey's Finest.
  • I would be a layer of Azarenka if Az wins the first set here today. Heather did look solid v a solid Sevastova. This may be a lay the first set winner match as Heather's 6-0 first set saw a far more competitive 2nd set.

Steve Johnson v Marin Cilic - 1.17 Cilic

  • 25th v 8th.
  • Last year at Queens SJ won the first set but lost the match.
  • Semi Finalist and Finalist on grass for Cilic prior to Wimbledon.Yet to drop a set so far.
  • SJ won in 4 sets v 81st.
  • I cannot see an SJ win.

Johanna Konta v Maria Sakkari - 1.17 Konta

  • 7th v 96th.
  • The shortest odds for Konta in some time today.
  • Her win over Donna Vekic is very impressive given Vekic beat her at Nottingham.
  • No head to heads.
  • 57th and 38th the players Maria has beaten. This is a leap.
  • Be with Konta here today. Collateral form? Sakkari lost to Vekic in straight sets in Nottingham.

Rafael Nadal v Karen Khachanov - 1.09 Nadal

  • I like Karen and will lay Rafa at 1.1 despite his highly likely win today.
  • 5th v 56th.
  • No head to heads.
  • 5 sets and 4 sets for Karen suggests if he wins the first set he will not win 3-0.
  • Karen has lost to Murray and Federer (taking last set to tie breaker) so is likely to end up a loser but has the game to test Nadal today.

Andy Murray v Fabio Fognini - 1.08 Andy

  • If we were in Roma, I would give Foggy a solid chance here. But we are in Andy's back yard.
  • 1st v 29th. Foggy won in Rome this year in 2 straight sets and with that fresh in his memory, Andy is an automatic lay at 1.09.
  • Remember with these short lays we might not get much scope for profit. Laying Cilic at 1.05 yesterday saw a get out at 1.3 and that is what I would look for, for these shorties.
  • Some of you might want to stay in as liabilities are low and potential profits are great.

Kevin Anderson v Ruben Bemelmans - 1.14 Kevin

  • Anderson seems back up and running and has a serve to work with on grass.
  • 66th v 133rd.
  • 3 tie breakers in 2 matches for Kevin so he may give Ruben a shout here.
  • 5 setter for Ruben v Medvedev saw a successful trade as Ruben won the first 2 sets, lost the next 2 sets.
  • More of that please today Ruben as Kevin should not be losing 3-0.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga v Sam Querrey - 1.4 Jo

  • 11th v 27th.
  • 4-1 Tsonga head to heads. At Wimbledon 2014, we had a 5 setter and 14-12 last set. Remember what Sam did to Novak last year here.
  • 3 setter (tie break first set), 4 setter for Sam suggests if he is to win it will not be 3-0.
  • I don't have an ultra strong angle bar laying any leader 2-0 /0-2 sets up.

Gael Monfils v Adrian Mannarino - 1.25 Monfils

  • 17th v 51st.
  • These 2 met in Wimbledon 2015 and saw a 3 setter with the first set a tie breaker.
  • Mannarino is lucky to be here. Lopez  would have beaten him first round but retired. Sugita gave him the 5 set battle you'd expect of a 1.83 pre match favourite.
  • Monfils should be winning here. A final at Eastbourne, and yet to drop a set here. Mannarino is living on borrowed time after dodging the Lopez bullet.

Naomi Osaka v Venus Williams - 1.36 Venus

  • It seems we get some trading angles with our Venus.
  • 46th v 12th.
  • No relevant head to head.
  • Similar form so far in Wimbledon. Both players 2 set opener included a tie breaker. Then a 3 setter.
  • 7 losses in 9 for Osaka suggests her Wimbledon ends today.No warm up tournament for Venus.
  • I hope we see an Osaka opening set win. Venus looks reliable from behind.

Dominika Cibulkova v Ana Konjuh - 1.95 Dom

  • The odds tell you this will be Dominika's first test.
  • Slight drop in her odds from the 110 I backed her at in the outright winner market. Down to 90 now.
  • If she wins this, the odds should drop further.
  • 4th v 34th.
  • 3 set win for Dom at the French Open head to head in 2016.
  • 76th and 78th the rankings Dom has beaten so far at Wimbledon. In her 3 warm up events on grass, she was dumped out in the first round.
  • 115th and 33rd the rankings Ana has beaten.
  • The market cannot split these 2 players which usually indicates a 3 setter so lay the first set winner.

Shuai Peng v Simona Halep - 1.38 Halep

  • 37th v 5th.
  • No head to heads.
  • It took 3rd ranked Pliskova to beat Peng at Eastbourne. The first set was a tie breaker.
  • She also beat 22nd ranked Bacsinsky.
  • In 3 of her last 4 grass court matches, Peng has seen a tie breaker first set.
  • I would hope for that today, only for Peng to win it so we get better odds on Halep.
  • 3 3 setters for Halep at Eastbourne. 2 2 setters so far at Wimbledon and she was tested by Maia who threatened to take a set but did not manage it.

Alison Riske v Coco Vandeweghe - 1.52 Coco

  • 39th v 23rd.
  • Riske has won the last 3 head to heads, albeit Coco retired in one of those.
  • Riske's beating of Mladenovic is a solid bit of form for me and suggests Coco is layable if Coco wins the first set.
  • 103rd and 81st so far beaten by Coco this Wimbledon. At Eastbourne she did beat Johanna Konta.
  • I do think this match has the feel of a lay the first set winner about it. Ready preference for a Coco first set win as her odds will be shorter to lay.

19:45 - Drogheda v Finn Harps - 2.82 Finn Harps

  • 0-2 Drogs the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 11th v 9th in the Irish Premier Division.

Drogheda

  • Only 4 wins.
  • Failed to score in 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • Failed to score last 4 at home.
  • Only 4 home defeats.
  • Unbeaten at home v 8th and lower - scored 2 v 10th and 12th at home.

Finn Harps

  • 5 wins only.
  • Failed to score last 3 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • No win in 5 away.
  • 2-1 1-2 v 10th and 12th away.

Conclusions

  • Clearly these 2 are meeting teams at their level and we could see an end to the inabilities to score.
  • I would back 2-2 here or 2-1/1-2 and trade out if 1-1.
  • I will opt for the former today, 2-2 as the odds will be big given both sides' failure to score recently.

19:45 - Galway v Limerick- 2.56 Limerick

  • 1-1 in the last head to head.
  • This is 6th v 12th in the Irish Premier Division.

Galway

  • Only 2 wins all season.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • v 6th and lower, 8 score draws, a 2-1 win and a 1-2 loss and a 0-1 loss. Tend to see both teams score.
  • 2 wins this season were 2-1 at home.

Limerick

  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Unbeaten v 10th and lower scoring 2 goals at least on 4 occasions.
  • 2-2-5-1-2-2 goals scored in recent matches.
  • No 0-0's.

Conclusions

  • This is another match where I would back 1-1 and 2-2 as trading angles.
  • Both teams tend to score in Galway matches, albeit without them winning. I include the 2-2 because Limerick have been scoring 2 goals of late at least in recent matches.