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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, April 7, 2017

Given this is newsletter week and I have a full program of weekend football, there is no live chat tonight. I simply need the time! But you never know. If online I will be on Twitter @drtclub.

19:00 - Sparta Rotterdam v Excelsior - 1.97 Sparta

  • 3-2 Excelsior the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 13th v 17th in the Dutch Eredivisie.

Sparta 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • Scored 2+ goals v 6th-16th inclusive at home.

Sparta other stats

  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • 2-3-2-0-1-2 conceded at home recently.
  • Only 3 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 defeat at home v 6th and lower.

Excelsior 100% stats

  • Conceded in every away match.
  • No 0-0.

Excelsior other stats

  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Only 2 wins in 17 matches saw 9 score draws.
  • No win in 13 away.
  • Conceded in their last 27 matches.
  • Only 3 0-0's at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • If a team score draws so often, it suggests that they cannot hold on to a lead so lay Excelsior if they score first. They are yet to keep an away clean sheet.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market
  • Lay any late 0-0. These 2 do not do 0-0.

19:00 - Dordrecht v FC Eindhoven - 1.96 FC

  • 2-1 Eindhoven in the last head to head.
  • This is 19th v 11th in the Dutch Eerste Divisie.

Dordrecht 100% stats

  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Not beaten a team 4th-17th at home but beat 1st and 3rd!!

Dordrecht other stats

  • Only 5 wins.
  • Shock 5-2 win over league leaders VVV came out of the blue.
  • Actually failed to score in the 3 matches surrounding that one!
  • Conceded in their last 11 matches.

FC Eindhoven 100% stats

  • Heavy defeats away v bottom 4 conceding 6-3-4 goals but scoring 2-1-3!

FC Eindhoven other stats

  • No win in 9 away.
  • Only 1 0-0.
  • Only 3 wins away.
  • Scored and conceded home and away v 15th and lower.

Conclusions

  • FC Eindhoven are favourites but were mullered v bottom 4 away conceding 13 goals in 3 matches.
  • Not a match I can get a strong angle into. For a bit of fun 3-3 might see some trading action.

19:00 - Fortuna Sittard v Helmond Sport - 1.81 Fortuna

  • 1-0 Helmond in the most recent head to head.
  • This is 15th v 12th in the Dutch Eerste Divise.

Fortuna Sittard other stats

  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0.
  • Unbeaten v top 5 at home so have something to them.

Helmond Sport 100% stats

  • Not won to nil away.

Helmond Sport other stats

  • 8 losses, a draw and a win last 10 matches.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches and in 4 of their last 5 aways.
  • 5 consecutive away defeats.
  • Scored and conceded in 8 of 9 away matches v 9th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Slightly favour Fortuna today. There must be something to them at home if they are unbeaten v top 5 at home. Helmond tend to score and concede away (contrary to recent performances) v lower half so expect that but oppose a Helmond lead.

19:00 - De Graafschap v Waalwijk - 1.6 De Graaf

  • 2-1 Waalwijk the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 13th v 9th in the Dutch Eerste Divisie.

De Graaf 100% stats

  • No draw v 4th and lower at home.
  • No home 0-0.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.

De Graaf other stats

  • 6 wins in 7 matches.
  • 5 consecutive home wins.
  • No draw in 16 matches.
  • 8 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches at home.
  • Only 1 draw at home.
  • All wins at home v 4th-11th inclusive.
  • 88% over 2.5 goals at home.

Waalwijk 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • Unbeaten away v 12th and lower.

Waalwijk other stats

  • Scored and conceded in 9 of their last 10 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 away.

Conclusions

  • Both teams have a strong chance of scoring in a match in which I thought De Graaf looked an obvious call but then Waalwijk are unbeaten v 12th and lower away.
  • I do like the De Graaf wins v 4th-11th inclusive. I do think both teams could score and De Graaf could score 2 goals. That's not to say they'll win! 2-2 as a trading angle perhaps?
  • Lay any late 0-0.

19:00 - Emmen v Achilles 29 - 1.35 Emmen

  • 0-4 Emmen the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 10th v 20th in the Dutch Eerste Divisie.

Emmen 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at home v 16th and lower.

Emmen other stats

  • Scored 2 goals at least in 6 of their last 8 matches and in each of their last 5 home matches.
  • At least one team has scored 2+ goals in 14 of 15 matches v teams below them in the league.

Achilles 100% stats

  • No win v top 10 home or away.

Achilles other stats

  • Have conceded 3+ goals in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.

Conclusions

  • Emmen's form is actually not that hot but they play an Achilles whose heel is their defence. Emmen could score 3+ goals today and simply blow them away.
  • It looks a straightforward angle. Expect Achilles to lose.

19:00 - VVV v Almere City - 1.63 VVV

  • 0-2 VVV the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 1st v 8th in the Dutch Eerste Divisie.

VVV 100% stats

  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Unbeaten at home outside the top 7.

VVV other stats

  • 2 consecutive defeats.
  • 4-7-4-4 scored in 4 consecutive home matches until conceding 4 last home match.
  • Not conceded 2 goals in a home match outside of the top 7.

Almere 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • All defeats v top 2.

Almere other stats

  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Unbeaten in 6 scoring 3-2-1-3-3-2 goals.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • Scored last 13 away.

Conclusions

  • Almere should score today but not win. Even if scoring 2+ goals, they have shown against lesser opponents a sloppy defence.
  • Will VVV score 4 again? A possibility.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Back over 3.5 goals if 0-0 at halftime.

19:30 - Eintracht Frankfurt v Werder Bremen - 2.22 Frankfurt

  • 1-2 Eintracht in the last head to head.
  • This is 7th v 8th in the German Bundesliga.

Frankfurt 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at home v teams above them in the league.

Frankfurt other stats

  • Failed to score in 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • 2 consecutive home 0-0's.

Werder Bremen 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.

Werder Bremen other stats

  • 6 wins and a draw in their last 7 matches.
  • 4 of those matches saw wins to nil.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • Scored in their last 12 away.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0. The Frankfurt sequence should end. I think Werder can record another win today against a Frankfurt having trouble even scoring.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market with Werder particularly away from home. I try to wait out to the 20th minute.

19:45 - QPR v Brighton - 2.18 Brighton

  • 2 consecutive comfortable Brighton head to head wins, albeit at home.
  • This is 16th v 1st in the English Championship.

QPR 100% stats

  • Not beaten a top 3 side yet.
  • No 0-0 at home.

QPR other stats

  • Conceded last 13 home matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 8 at home.
  • 4 consecutive home wins.

Brighton other stats

  • 4 wins in 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 8 matches.
  • 11 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Only 1 defeat home and away v teams 13th and lower.
  • 17 of 23 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • QPR are highly likely to concede so note that in-play if 0-0 or 1-0.
  • It may be 0-0 at halftime but fear not. Brighton have a very strong 2nd half scoring rate.
  • Lay any late 0-0.

19:45 - Villareal v Ath Bilbao - 2.26 Villareal

  • 0-0 and 1-0 Ath Bilbao in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 5th v 6th in the Spanish Primera Liga - both sides are 8 points max away from a top 4 berth.

Villareal 100% stats

  • Not conceded in both halves.
  • No 1-0 or 0-1 at home.

Villareal other stats

  • Scored 2+ goals in their last 3 home matches.
  • All home wins needed 2 goals at least.

Ath Bilbao 100% stats

  • Unbeaten v 5th to 11th home and away.
  • No over 4.5 goals away.

Ath Bilbao other stats

  • 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime in their last 11 matches.
  • No draw in 11 matches.
  • Only 1 away win v top 15 sides.

Conclusions

  • Statistically if Villareal keep a clean sheet first half, they could win! Note that.
  • Lay any late draw. Both sides are avoiding the draw at the moment.
  • 2-0 or 2-2, 2-3 speculative correct score positions based on Villareal scoring 2 goals in each of their last 3 home matches and indeed losing 2-3 in 2 recent matches.

19:45 - Lille v Nice - 2.56 Lille

  • 4 consecutive draws in head to heads.
  • This is 13th v 3rd in French Ligue 1.

Lille 100% stats

  • Not beaten a team above them in the league at home.

Lille other stats

  • No win in 6 at home.
  • 0-1 at home v 2nd and 4th and 0-0 v 5th. Play 3rd today.

Nice 100% stats

  • Unbeaten v 2nd to 15th home and away.

Nice other stats

  • Only 2 losses.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.

Conclusions

  • The probability is that Nice will not lose today. I do note the tight matches Lille have had at home v 2nd, 4th and 5th. Back 0-0 pre match and hope this ultra defensive set up turns up?
  • Not a match which enthrals.