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A couple of shocks in the Premier League yesterday. More shocks this weekend? Pre-Champions League and Pre-Europa League suggests a double-take should a contender, as favourite, concede first today. We saw last time that layers were the profiteers!

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

19:45 - Millwall v Nottingham Forest - 2.58 Millwall

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 12/20 Millwall home matches and in 8/12 Nottm Forest away matches. Nottm Forest have drawn the first half in 7/11 away matches against middle-third teams.

Millwall - 13th

  • Only 2 losses since 28th September came away from home.
  • Scored and conceded in 10 of their last 12 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored in their last 12 and last 9 at home.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of their last 5 at home.
  • Only home loss v 16th, London based QPR.
  • 9 of 14 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Nottm Forest - 4th

  • Only 4 defeats. Lost their last match with 23+ shots OFF target!
  • 3 clean sheets in their last 4 matches.
  • Only away loss v 22nd.
  • Have not conceded a 2nd goal away v 22nd and higher.
  • 11 of 15 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Only 2 losses since 28th September plays only 4 defeats. As befits the odds, 2.58, this looks well-matched. I may look at favouring Forest because they have not conceded a 2nd goal away v 22nd and higher.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

19:30 - Frankfurt v Hertha Berlin - 1.89 Frankfurt

  • Match outcome: E. Frankfurt have won 8/10 home matches against bottom-six teams while Hertha Berlin have lost 12/17 away matches against middle-third teams. E. Frankfurt have had W/W double results in 7/10 home matches against bottom-six teams.

Frankfurt - 10th

  • 4 losses in 5 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Only 3 under 2.5 goals matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not played bottom 3.

Hertha Berlin - 16th

  • 5 consecutive defeats.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime all season.
  • Conceded last 7 matches.
  • All wins came v 15th and lower.

Conclusions

  • On form, Hertha only tend to beat 15th and lower and shouldn't really land a blow here.
  • Frankfurt have a regular 2 goal habit at home.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

ITALIAN SERIA A

19:45 - Inter Milan v Roma - 1.94 Inter

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 8/11 Inter Milan home matches against top-six teams and in 10/12 Roma away matches against top-six teams. Inter Milan have won 7/10 home matches.

Inter (1st)

  • Only lost to Juventus.
  • 5 consecutive wins.
  • Scored in every match.
  • 4 2-1 wins in 5 matches.
  • Scored in their last 14 matches.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of their last 7 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not played 4th-7th at home.
  • 6 goals scored at home in the 16th-30th minutes.

Roma (4th)

  • Only 2 losses.
  • 5 wins in 6 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Not played the top 2 yet.
  • Not beaten the top 6 in 3 matches.
  • 4 of 5 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • A cracking match in prospect. Only 1 loss plays only 2 losses. What do we read into Roma's failure to beat the top 6 in 3 matches. Significant? Bad luck? I like Inter Milan this season and will enter the match with a view that they can get a result. I will use the in-play stats though as this is a top 4 clash.

SPANISH LA LIGA

20:00 - Villareal v Atl Madrid - 2.42 Atl Madrid

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 15/20 Villarreal home matches and +3.5 goals in 7/12 Villarreal home matches. Atl. Madrid have drawn the first half in 7/10 away matches against bottom-half teams.

Villareal - 13th

  • 4 losses and a draw last 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • 2+ goals conceded in each of their last 3 matches.
  • Only loss at home came v 18th.
  • Not beaten a top 11 side home or away.
  • Conceded 2 goals at least in all bar 1 match v top 11.
  • 14 of 18 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Atl Madrid - 6th

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • Only 2 wins in 9 matches sees 6 draws, 4 of which were 1-1.
  • Only 2 over 2.5 goals matches.
  • No defeat in 5 away.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away (71% of matches).
  • 5 of 5 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • On form, Atl Madrid should not lose but I could not discount a draw. But if a late draw, I would speculatively lay it because Atl Madrid are dropping 2 points in each of these matches where they are not losing.
  • Strong 2nd half scoring patterns for both sides.
  • Villareal tend to concede 2 goals at least v the top 11.

BELGIAN JULIPER LEAGUE

19:30 - Waasland Beveren v Antwerp - 1.65 Antwerp

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 9/12 Waasland home matches and in 11/14 Royal Antwerp away matches. Royal Antwerp have drawn the first half in 6/10 away matches against bottom-six teams.

Waasland Beveren - 15th

  • Only 2 wins.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 at home.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 at home.
  • Conceded last 8 and last 8 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • All defeats bar 1 have come v the top 9.

Antwerp - 5th

  • All 4 defeats came away.
  • 3 wins and a draw last 4 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only one match.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 away.
  • No win in 5 away.
  • Scored last 12 matches.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 9th and lower.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime away (22%).

Conclusions

  • Only 2 wins for Beveren on probability alone has us expecting positives from Antwerp, a side unbeaten v 9th and lower but whose 4 losses came away.
  • All of Beveren's defeats came v the top 9.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market has potential but is 22% too high a % for Antwerp for 0-0 at HT?

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

19:15 - Ajax v Willem II - 1.11 Ajax

  • Match outcome: Ajax have won 8/8 home matches against top-six teams while Willem II have lost 9/10 away matches against Big Two teams. Ajax have had W/W double results in 13/15 home matches.
  • Just quick research here. 2-0 down v Twente, Ajax scored their 4+ goals in their 10th match this season to record a superb win.
  • Expect at least a goal before halftime.
  • Only 2 losses in 8 matches for Willem II came away.
  • Willem have not played the top 3 away but all defeats clustered v 5th-10th home and away.
  • More winning runs from Ajax?

PORTUGUESE PRIMEIRA LIGA

20:30 - Boavista v Benfica - 1.5 Benfica

  • 1st goal: Boavista have conceded first in 10/13 home matches against Big Three teams while Benfica have won 8/8 away matches against top-six teams. Boavista have lost 10/13 home matches against Big Three teams.

Boavista - 5th

  • Only 2 losses all season came within the last 3 matches and were only 1-0.
  • Only 2 over 2.5 goals matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • v the top 4 at home, 0-1 and 1-1.
  • Not conceded a 2nd goal at home yet.

Benfica - 1st

  • All wins bar 1.
  • 9 clean sheets this season.
  • Failed to score only in defeat v Porto.
  • 5 consecutive away defeats.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of their last 4 matches.
  • Not played top 5 away.
  • 9 of 11 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • This could be tricky for Benfica who will need to score 2 goals to win. Boavista v the top 4 are 0-1 and 1-1. Lay Benfica if they score first for value (cover the 0-1 insurance)?

RUSSIAN PREMIER LEAGUE

16:30 - Zenit v Dinamo Moscow - 1.57 Zenit

  • 1st half outcome: Zenit St P have drawn the first half in 8/12 home matches against top-six teams while there have been -2.5 goals in 14/19 D. Moscow away matches. D. Moscow have drawn the first half in 12/19 away matches.

Zenit - 1st

  • Only 2 losses came away and were 1-0.
  • 6 wins and a draw in 7 matches.
  • 4 wins in 5 at home.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • No defeat in 8 at home.
  • 0-2 win v Dinamo earlier this season.
  • 14 of 19 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Dinamo Moscow - 6th

  • 4 wins in 5 matches.
  • 3 consecutive away wins.
  • Have beaten 3rd and 4th away.

Conclusions

  • This could be competitive. Dinamo Moscow are in good recent form, 3 consecutive away wins and have beaten 3rd and 4th away. Zenit are the form side with only 2 losses. They have beaten Dinamo Moscow this season already. Is that enough to suggest a draw or slight one goal win to nil for Zenit?

Arsenal Tula v Lokomotiv Moscow - 2.26 Lokomotiv

  • Match outcome: Arsenal Tula have lost 5/8 home matches against top-six teams while Lok. M. have won 10/15 away matches. Lok. M. have scored first in 8/10 away matches.

Arsenal Tula (7th)

  • Only 1 wins in 11 matches were 0-1 away to Spartak and CSKA .....Moscow. CSKA were the dominant force.
  • 2 consecutive home defeats.
  • Conceded in their last 6 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • All defeats at home v the top 5.
  • All defeats v the top 3.
  • 2-1 loss v Lokomotiv earlier this season.

Lokomotiv Moscow (3rd)

  • Only 4 defeats.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • No defeat in 8 away.
  • Scored in their last 8 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 6th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Arsenal Tula really did not deserve that win v CSKA Moscow, if you followed the in-play stats. If Arsenal lead 1-0 today, lay them and cover the 1-0 insurance. I would expect Lokomotiv to get a result here. Solid form, undefeated away, scoring in their last 8 away.
  • Do Arsenal like playing the Moscovites?
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

TURKISH SUPER LIG

17:30 - Fenerbahce v Genclerbirligi - 1.51 Fenerbahce

  • 1st half outcome: Fenerbahce have won the first half in 7/8 home matches against bottom-six teams while Genclerbirligi have conceded first in 5/6 away matches. Fenerbahce have won 7/8 home matches against bottom-six teams.

Fenerbahce - 6th

  • Only 3 losses.
  • 2 consecutive draws.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • 3 wins in 4 matches at home.
  • Conceded in their last 5 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 home loss came v 16th 0-1.
  • 2 of 3 losses were 1-0.
  • 9 home goals scored first 1/2 hour.
  • 5 of 6 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Genclerbirligi - 13th

  • Only 2 losses in 10 matches.
  • 2 draws and 2 wins last 4 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Scored in their last 6 away.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime away (33%).
  • Not beaten a top 12 side home or away.
  • Only played one of the top 11 away.
  • 5 goals scored away last 15 minutes of matches.

Conclusions

  • Gap in form for Genclerbirligi is a concern. They have only played one of the top 11 away.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Fenerbahce.
  • If Genc score first lay them and cover the 0-1. 2 of Fenerbahce's 3 losses were 1-0 only. Genc have not beaten the top 12 home or away.

CROATIAN 1 HNL

17:00 - Dinamo Zagreb v Varazdin - 1.12 Dinamo Zagreb

  • Honourable mention rather than indepth research. DZ are approaching their best at home again. 5+ years they had unbeaten in the league at home and that is returning now so anything other than a comfortable win would be a shock. Usual rules apply for 1.12 shots. No goals after 20 mins, back 1-0, 2-0, any unquoted in the halftime score market. If 0-0 at halftime, back 3-0, 3-1, any other home score.

DUTCH EERSTE DIVISIE

19:00 - Excelsior v NEC Nijmegen - 2.24 Excelsior

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 7/8 Excelsior home matches and +3.5 goals in 6/8 Excelsior home matches. NEC have lost 9/12 away matches against top-six teams.

Excelsior - 6th

  • Only 2 wins in 7 matches.
  • 2 losses in 3 at home.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded last 7 at home.
  • 2+ goals conceded in each of their last 6 at home.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime at home (25%).
  • Losses v 3rd and 5th, all wins v 9th and lower at home.
  • 16 of 24 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

NEC - 8th

  • Only 1 loss in 8 matches came last match.
  • 6 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • Not played 6th-11th away.
  • 9 of 12 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Those fecking gaps in form....NEC not met 6th-11th away. Heavy 2nd half scorers too. I did think there'd be a goal before halftime given Excelsior's scoring and conceding habit and conceding of 2+ goals last 6 home matches.
  • Do watch out for 2nd half goals if there are none first half. Excelsior 100% wins v 9th and lower....where does 8th fit in here?

19:00 - FC Eindhoven v FC Volendam - 2.12 Volendam

  • 1st half outcome: FC Eindhoven have drawn the first half in 8/9 home matches against top-six teams as have Volendam in 7/10 away matches against middle-third teams. There have been +2.5 goals in 8/11 Volendam away matches.

FC Eindhoven - 13th

  • Only 2 wins in 9 matches did come at home.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Only home loss was v 1st.
  • 2+ goals scored in all bar 2 at home.
  • 14 of 18 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 9 of 10 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Volendam - 5th

  • 6 consecutive wins.
  • 3 consecutive away wins.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Conceded last 9 away.
  • 4 of 5 losses came away.

Conclusions

  • Recent form firmly with Volendam but when they lose, it does tend to come away.
  • FC Eindhoven may keep a 0-0 halftime but expect both teams to score based on their stats? I personally like what I see of Eindhoven's home form despite s dire recent run. Potential to lay Volendam if they lead narrowly late on.