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English Championship

19:45 - Huddersfield v Cardiff - 2.15 Cardiff

Huddersfield

  • Only 1 win in 12.
  • Draw, Loss, Win, Draw at home latest.
  • Conceded last 14 and last 7 at home.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • 3-0 loss last head to head.
  • 12/18 goals conceded at home 2nd half.

Cardiff - 8th

  • 7 wins and a draw last 8.
  • 4 wins and a draw away.
  • Scored last 10 and last 7 away.
  • Relatively poor record away v 17th and lower, only 1 win in 5.

Conclusions

  • Cardiff must fancy their chances given their recent electric form. Poor away v 17th and lower though. Will recent form trump that? Only 1 loss in 4 at home for Huddersfield is papering over the cracks. I cannot see them landing a blow bar any red card influence.
  • 1st goal: Huddersfield have scored first in 9/10 home matches while Cardiff have conceded first in 5/9 away matches against bottom-six teams. There have been -2.5 goals in 13/20 Cardiff away matches.

Spanish La Liga Primera

20:00 - Valencia v Villarreal - 2.05 Villareal

Valencia - 13th

  • Only 3 wins since 22nd November 2020.
  • 2 consecutive home wins to nil.
  • 5 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches at home.
  • 2-1 loss last head to head.

Villareal - 7th

  • No win in 7 a real surprise. Only 4 defeats but 2 consecutive home defeats.
  • 3 consecutive away draws.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 8th and lower.
  • 13/15 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market given the 87% scoring and 62% conceding away record for Villareal.
  • Villareal may get away with poor form given Valencia win very rarely but, with only 3 wins since November, 2 have come in their last 2 home matches.
  • How far can we rely on the fact that Villareal are unbeaten home and away v 8th and lower?
  • 1st goal: Valencia have conceded first in 6/8 home matches against top-half teams while Villarreal have won the first half in 5/8 away matches against middle-third teams. Villarreal have scored first in 6/8 away matches against middle-third teams.

German Bundesliga

19:30 - Schalke v Mainz - 2.10 Mainz

Schalke - 18th

  • Only 1 win.
  • 4 consecutive home defeats.
  • No win in 8.
  • Failed to score last 3 at home.
  • 2-2 last head to head.
  • 6/8 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Mainz - 17th

  • Equally as poor but suddenly started fighting. Win, Loss, Win, Draw, Win, Loss recently. Considering they have had only 4 wins all season, this is good relative recent form.
  • 2-2, 1-2 last 2 away against solid yardsticks Leverkusen and Mgladbach albeit the European Club competitions distractions may have played a part
  • Conceded last 5 away.

Conclusions

  • Like high profile derbies, or top 2 clashes, bottom side clashes can be unreadable but on what we see recently, Mainz are putting together a solid run, 3 of their 4 wins all season have come within the last 6 matches and that may sway me their way, particularly as Schalke are failing to score at home. But please remember, these 2 are bottom 2 for a reason.....and it's not their reliability.
  • +3.5 goals: There have been +3.5 goals in 11/20 FSV Mainz 05 away matches and +2.5 goals in 7/9 FSV Mainz 05 away matches against bottom-six teams. Schalke 04 have conceded first in 11/13 home matches.

Dutch Eredivisie

19:00 - Emmen v Sparta Rotterdam - 2.20 Sparta

Emmen

  • No wins all season....apart from the last 2 matches including a coupon buster v Utrecht.
  • That, I think is where we focus on Emmen, their last 2 wins. We have to decide whether this is a turn around or will the old dodgepots return today?

Sparta

  • Might given Emmen the chance for a hatrick of wins? 5 losses and 2 draws last 7 matches.
  • Loss, Draw, Loss away recently.
  • Emmen are still bottom of the league and Sparta have beaten them 2-1 this season and beaten 14th, 16th and drawn with 17th away.

Conclusions

  • A tough match to evaluate given Emmen have 2 consecutive wins, including against a solid Utrecht. They meet a Sparta without a win in 7 so at their most vulnerable...but beating Emmen earlier and unbeaten v 14th and lower away. Intriguing but not necessarily readable pre match.
  • 1st goal: Emmen have scored first in 7/11 home matches against bottom-six teams while Sparta R'dam have lost 12/19 away matches. Sparta R'dam have conceded first in 12/17 away matches.

Portuguese Primeira Liga

18:30 - Pacos Ferreira v Nacional - 1.85 Pacos Ferreira

Pacos Ferreira - 5th

  • The ambassador must be pleased with Pacos Ferreira-Rocher's season albeit they have had 2 losses in 3, v Santa Clara and Sporting Lisbon.
  • 4 wins and 2 draws last 6 at home.
  • No defeat 9 at home.
  • 1-1 last head to head.
  • Only beaten at home by 1st.

Nacional - 12th

  • 3 consecutive defeats.
  • Not beaten top 8 home or away.
  • Not beaten top 13 away.

Conclusions

  • You too could be dining on Ferrero Rocher if you back Pacos Ferreira this evening. They should not lose this match. Nacional have not beaten the top 13 away or top 8 away and Pacos are unbeaten in 9 at home. If those patterns continue, then the home side are favoured.
  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 7/10 P. Ferreira home matches against middle-third teams and in 7/10 Nacional (Por) away matches. Nacional (Por) have drawn the first half in 6/10 away matches.

20:45 - Sporting Lisbon v Santa Clara - 1.44 Sporting

Sporting

  • One of a dwindling number without defeat this season.
  • All wins bar 4 draws this season.
  • 8 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • 3 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored last 10 at home.
  • 6 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches at home.
  • 1-2 win last head to head.
  • 9 goals scored at home last 15 mins of matches.

Santa Clara - 7th

  • 2 losses ended with a win latest.
  • Draw, Win, Draw, Win, Loss away recently.
  • Conceded last 10 away.
  • Beat 2nd 0-1 away.

Conclusions

  • Will Sporting continue unbeaten? Well if Santa continue to concede as in their last 10 away, then Sporting will have a chance. Lay Santa if they score first but cover the 0-1 as they did beat 2nd 0-1.
  • Match outcome: Sporting CP have won 18/19 home matches against top half non-Big Three teams while Santa Clara have lost 5/6 away matches against Big Three teams. Sporting CP have won by two or more goals in 6/9 home matches against top half non-Big Three teams.

Dutch Eerste Divisie

17:45 - Helmond v NEC Nijmegen - 1.91 NEC

Helmond - 11th

  • After an unbeaten run of 8 matches, Loss, Draw, Loss last 3 matches.
  • Win, Win, Draw, Win, Loss at home recently.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 and last 3 at home.
  • Scored last 11 and last 5 at home.
  • 15% 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 6 losses and a win at home v the top 8.
  • 2-2 last head to head.

NEC Nijmegen - 6th

  • 2 wins, 2 losses, 1 win last 5 matches.
  • Loss, Win, Loss, Win away.
  • Scored last 5 and last 10 away.
  • 15% 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Only 2 losses away v 3rd and lower.

Conclusions

  • Helmond v the top 8 keep losing. That is what stands out.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. 85% of matches have seen a goal at least before halftime.
  • 1st goal: Helmond have conceded first in 7/11 home matches against top-six teams while NEC have won 6/10 away matches. Helmond have lost 10/20 home matches.

17:45 - Jong Utrecht v MVV Maastricht - 2.20 Jong Utrecht

Jong Utrecht - 14th

  • 6 losses and a win recently.
  • 3 losses and a win at home recently.
  • No draw in 14 and in 13 at home.
  • Conceded last 7 and last 8 at home.
  • 0-2 win last head to head.

MVV - 16th

  • 3 wins in 4 did come at home.
  • 6 losses and a win away recently.
  • Not beaten 10th and lower away.
  • 15/23 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late draw. Both sides are conceding. Apart from that, no strong angles.
  • 1st goal: Jong Utrecht have scored first in 12/17 home matches while Maastricht have lost 9/11 away matches against middle-third teams. Maastricht have lost by two or more goals in 8/11 away matches against middle-third teams.

20:00 - Cambuur v Telstar - 1.28 Cambuur

Cambuur - 1st

  • 5 wins and 2 draws last 7 matches.
  • 6 wins and a loss last 7 at home.
  • No draw 13 at home.
  • 2+ goals last 3 at home.
  • 1-2 win last head to head.
  • Lost at home v 5th, 7th, 12th.

Telstar - 9th

  • No win in 6.
  • A draw and 2 losses away.
  • Conceded last 13 and last 13 away.
  • All losses v top 5.
  • 69% goals scored away 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • 5 wins in 7 plays no win in 6. It looks obvious.
  • Lay any late draw. Cambuur have had a few losses at home v 5th,7th and 12th so are vulnerable, but their recent form is very good.
  • Asian handicap: Cambuur have won by two or more goals in 9/11 home matches while Telstar have conceded first in 9/11 away matches against top-six teams. Cambuur have won 9/11 home matches.

20:00 - TOP Oss v Go Ahead Eagles - 1.85 Go Ahead Eagles

TOP Oss - 14th

  • 7 losses and a win last 8 matches.
  • Loss, Loss, Win, Loss at home.
  • No draw in 13 and in 6 at home.
  • Scored in their last 6 at home.
  • 1-0 loss last head to head.
  • Not beaten the top 5.
  • 8 goals scored right after halftime.

Go Ahead Eagles - 5th

  • 9 wins and a loss last 10 matches.
  • 6 consecutive away wins.
  • 10 clean sheets in 12 matches.
  • 2+ goals scored last 6 away.
  • Unbeaten away v 7th and lower.

Conclusions

  • It does look clear cut. Go Ahead have been keeping clean sheets, scoring 2 goals, and are unbeaten away v 7th and lower.
  • 1st half outcome: FC Oss have drawn the first half in 7/9 home matches against top-six teams and there have been -2.5 goals in 10/13 FC Oss such matches. G.A. Eagles have won 6/9 away matches against bottom-six teams.