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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, June 5, 2015

Review of yesterday's matches.

Costa Rica Youth v Qatar Youth match had me worried. After 17 minutes, the Costa Rica Youth odds had risen from 1.3 to 1.7 yet there were no goals or sendings off. To compound my suspicions that something wasn't right, Qatar Youth scored first. I do hope you traded then and layed Qatar Youth who touched 1.66, and could have been lower. Costa Rica Youth equalised. Both teams did score in the Djurgardens match. 1-1 it ended. France Youth are clearly enjoying home benefits in Toulon, beating the Netherlands 4-0. The head to head 0-0 between Goteborg and Elfsborg did end. Goteborg scored the solitary winner. I am glad I left the titanic clash between Dinamo Kiev and Shakhtar Donetsk alone. 0-0 it ended. I did lay Safarova who won the first set 7-5. Both sets were very tight, both 7-5 so the lay was justified. Safarova simply won a key point at the right time. Serena Williams was back to his old tricks again, losing the first set. Given what we know about this pattern in the French Open, I do hope that backed Serena over evens or layed Timea at as low as 1.27 in-play (the same odds that Sloane Stephens reached before succumbing to Serena's Popeye like forearms). A great trading match. I do hope you are looking into tennis as a viable trading alternative during the football off-season. On to today...

Where I mention BANKER below, this signifies those matches where I think the favourites should win. These matches I would personally prioritise as regards DRT.

Remember the strategies:

Lay the 0-0 halftime score in certain signalled matches.

Lay the 0-0 2nd half in matches where goals were expected but have not yet materialised.

Lay the 2-2 scoreline, especially early on in matches. 2-2 shows us that teams are scoring and conceding.

Lay the away team leading 0-2 before halftime, especially if they are not the pre-market favourites. The home team is usually galvanised by the halftime team talk.

Lay the underdog if they score first in certain matches (especially BANKER matches where I would back the BANKERS if they conceded first at enhanced odds).

Lay the underdog scoring early in the first half, in the HALF TIME market, especially in BANKER matches.

Do note matches where one team is red carded. The opponents do tend to score next more often than not.

Odds taken from www.willhill.com as the Betfair markets are currently illiquid.

15:00 UK Jordan v Kuwait - 2.4 home

Standout Stats

  • This friendly is about as appealing as a trip to a blind dentist. I will not be researching this match .

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • None. I agree with the market, It is too difficult to split these 2 poor sides.
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16:00 UK FC Minsk v Shakhter Soligorsk - 1.73 away

Standout Stats

  • Shakhter have won the last 2 home head to heads but away at Minsk they lost 3-0 in august 2014.
  • This is 10th v 2nd in the Belarussian top league after 8 matches.
  • Early on in the season but already FC Minsk have lost 4 matches to nil, and won only 2 matches. Those were at home.
  • Soligorsk are unbeaten this season. They have only played 2 away matches 1-1 and 1-3 .
  • Soligorsk kept 3 clean sheets in their last 4 matches.
  • Minsk failed to score in all bar 2 matches (those home wins) this season. The 2 wins at home came v the current bottom 2 sides (albeit only 8 matches).

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • I think the away side unbeaten run should continue at least for this match. It will end at some stage and I suspect it will end against a top 3 side.  We have an away side with 3 clean sheets in 4 matches playing a side who have only scored in 2 matches this season.
  • I think FC Minsk are vulnerable today and should simply be outscored by Shakhter. Lay Minsk definitely if they score first.
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16:15 UK Oman v Syria - 2. home

Standout Stats

  • The match the world has been waiting for, no doubt about it. Like Mayweather v Pacquiao, this will stop the traffic!
  • These 2 last met in 2013 seeing 2 1-0 wins for Oman.
  • 2 wins in recent friendlies for Oman came against Yemen and Malaysia.
  • Those were home wins. They lost 1-4 to Algeria last home match.
  • Syria are unbeaten in 5 friendlies with wins v Malaysia, Indonesia, Jordan, Tajikistan, and a 2-2 v Lebanon.
  • 3-2-1-3-2 scored by Syria lately. Tough to quantify the opponents as against Oman today

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Another imponderable I'm afraid as we continue to tread water until August arrives. I note Syria's goal scoring recently and would suspect logically to see them on the score sheet at some stage. With Oman conceding 4 at home to Algeria recently, they could be vulnerable if the Syrian attack clicks.
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17:00 UK Dinamo Brest v Dynamo Minsk - 1.4 away

Standout Stats

  • 0-2 Minsk, 3-2 Minsk, 2-1 Brest, 3-1 Minsk in recent head to heads.
  • This is 9th v 3rd in the Belarussian league , only 6 matches old.
  • No win in 4 for Brest sees 3 defeats, all without Brest scoring.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of their last 6.
  • Unbeaten at home in 3 matches, 2 wins and a draw.
  • 3 consecutive away clean sheets for Minsk this season.
  • 5 clean sheets in their last 6 matches.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • A little too early in the league but already Minsk are proving hard to score against. And with Brest failing to score in 4 of their last 6, it all looks a little straightforward for Minsk today. Therefore, a good DRT match. We could see a Minsk win to nil which always opens the door up for a correct score bet . 0-2, 0-3 appeal.
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17:30 UK Hungary v Lithuania - 1.53 home

Standout Stats

  • These 2 last met in 2010
  • Only 2 defeats in their last 9 friendlies for Hungary were against Northern Ireland and Russia.
  • 1-0 wins v Faroes and Finland suggests Hungary ain't all that!
  • 1-1-1-1-1-0 scored by Hungary recently.
  • No win in 10 for Lithuania in friendlies.
  • 4 draws in their last 5 matches. Draws v Moldova, Kazaks, UAE and a 0-0 v Ukraine.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • 2 very poor sides here in what is unlikely to be a high priority match for me. With Lithuania entertaining so many draws, lay them if the score first.
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18:00 UK Tromso v Molde - 1.83 away

Standout Stats

  • 2-3 and 1-0 Molde in 2013 head to heads. I suspect Tromso have been relegated then promoted in the intervening year given their current position of 15th of 16.
  • Molde are currently 4th in the Norwegian Eliteserien.

Tromso

  • No win in 5 at home and 7 overall.
  • Conceded in those matches.
  • 5 losses ended with 2 draws.
  • 2-3-4-5-1-2-1 conceded recently. Held Rosenborg to a 1-1 draw latest which was a shock result.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Only 1 win this season

Molde

  • Scored in their last 7 matches.
  • Only 1 win in their last 4 away matches v Mjondalen.
  • All wins home and away v current 12th and lower in the league. All 3 defeats have been 2-1 this season.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • I would have to favour Molde here. Their record v 12th and lower ( playing 15th today) sees all wins. Tromso can concede heavily so I would lay them if they scored first.
  • Lay the 0-0 halftime score.
  • Both teams are likely to score.
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19:30 UK Holland v USA - 1.55 home

Standout Stats

  • Another international friendly. These 2 last met in 2010.
  • Since 2014 in friendlies, Holland have lost to France 2-0, Italy 2-0 and Mexico 2-3.
  • Holland scored 2 goals in 3 of their last 4 friendlies.
  • Only 2 friendly losses at home since November 2008. Beat Spain 2-0 at home in a friendly this year. If you recall the research, you' know Spain are notoriously non-plussed in friendlies.
  • Only 2 wins in 9 friendlies for USA were against Panama and Mexico (who beat Holland in a friendly).

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Do remember that some major teams are on pre-season duties and there is the Champions League Final which may see players from the Dutch side involved.
  • According to Sky Sports Robbens is a major absentee although it seems he is out of the current squad?
  • Again, not a match to get enthused about. Favour Holland based on that strong home form in friendlies?

19:45 UK Galway v Cork City - 1.7 away

Standout Stats

  • 2-0 to Cork in March 2015.
  • This is 7th v 2nd in the Irish Premier Division.

Galway

  • No draw this season.
  • 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
  • No draw in 14 matches and in 7 at home.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 3 at home.
  • 2-4-3 conceded at home in their last 3 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets
  • 71% over 2.5 goals at home.

Cork City

  • No defeat in 5 matches and in 7 away.
  • 2 consecutive clean sheets.
  • Only 1 loss this season.
  • 3 wins in their last 4 matches.
  • Poor scoring away, 1-0-1-0-2-1-1 scored by Cork away. 2 wins therefore away were 0-1.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • An eye-catching 14% over 2.5 goals away.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Cork should not lose today.
  • Lay any late draw here in the hope Galway continue to avoid the draw.
  • If Galway score first, lay them. They have conceded 9 goals in their last 3 home matches.
  • Cork are poor goalscorers away so perhaps back a 1-1 pre-match from a trading perspective?
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19:45 UK Dundalk v Bohemians - 1.33 home

Standout Stats

  • Dundalk are unbeaten in the last 9 head to heads.
  • 3 consecutive Dundalk wins 0-2, 3-2, 0-3.
  • This is 1st v 4th in the Irish Premier Division

Dundalk

  • All wins bar 2 draws this season.
  • 6 consecutive wins.
  • Scored in all matches.
  • 7 consecutive wins at home.
  • 6 home wins were to nil.

Bohemians

  • No draw in 2 away matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 2 away matches.
  • Only 2 wins in 7 matches.
  • Only 2 wins in 5 away matches.
  • Lost 3-0 to Dundalk already this season.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Dundalk should not lose today. Head to heads are emphatic. They're scoring 2/3 goals in those head to heads. They're unbeaten this season.
  • They have beaten Bohemians 0-3 away from home already this season!. A good DRT match as Bohs should not land a blow, but if they do.....
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19:45 UK Scotland v Qatar - 1.44 home

Standout Stats

  • I wonder if the Qataris have given the Scots an unlimited supply of Irn Bru in order to throw this friendly?
  • Since 2012 only the USA and England ( twice) have beaten the Scots in friendlies. The Scots last 4 wins in friendlies were 1-0 v Estonia, Norway, Poland, and Northern Ireland.
  • Only 2 defeats for the Scots in 12 home friendlies were v Argentina in 2008 and England in 2014.3 clean sheets in their last 4 home friendlies.
  • Qatar are unbeaten in 9 friendlies, and drew 1-1 with Northern Ireland latest.They have played the likes of Uzbekistan, Lebanon, Estonia, Oman, and Algeria. Yes tough opponents.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Just as we have done in the Toulon Tournament with the Qatari Youth, we must oppose the national side against a more resiliant Scots outfit under wee Gordon Strachan.
  • What chance another 1-0 Scotland? I would lay any late 0-0 here.
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19:45 UK UCD v Cabinteely FC - 1.33 home

Standout Stats

  • 0-1 Cabinteely in the Cup and 0-2 UCD away win in the league. Those are the only 2 head to heads.
  • This is 3rd v 8th of 8 in the Irish first Division.

UCD

  • Strong run of 8 without defeat.
  • Scored in those 8 matches.
  • DWDW ( D=Draw, W=Win) at home
  • In 6 of those 8 matches UCD scored at least 2 goals.
  • They have scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches.

Cabinteely

  • 3 match losing streak away
  • No win in 6 away
  • Have conceded in their last 6 away
  • Only 2 wins came at home in the first 3 matches of the season.
  • 5 losses in their last 6 matches away
  • Only 2 clean sheets

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • UCD are likely to outscore Cabinteely. Expect 2 goals from UCD at least today. Lay Cabinteely if they score first.
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20:00 UK Shamrock Rovers v Sligo Rovers - 1.5 home

Standout Stats

  • 4 consecutive Shamrock Rovers wins in head to heads. 3 1-0 wins and a 2-1
  • This is 3rd v 10th in the Irish Premier Division

Shamrock Rovers

  • Unbeaten this season.
  • 2 match home winning streak
  • 3 wins and a 2-2 in their last 4 home matches.
  • 3 clean sheets in their last 4 matches.

Sligo Rovers

  • No win in 4 away
  • Scored and conceded in their last 2 away
  • Only 1 away win was a 0-1 v Galway United
  • Have conceded 3 goals in 4 away matches.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • I would have to favour Shamrock Rovers. Sligo have been conceding 3 too frequently away from home so I would back Shamrock Rovers if Sligo scored first.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- French Open. A trading angle is better than a pre-match bet, although Serena did deliver yesterday.

12pm - Jo-Wilfried Tsonga v Stanislas Wawrinka  - 1.42 Stan.

15th v 9th in the rankings and 3-3 in head to heads. Tsonga has been Usain Bolt like in his French Open starts. In all head to heads, both players have won at least a set. This is likely to continue especially with Tsonga in such good form. 3 3-0's began the Tournament. Tsonga won the first 2 sets and lost the 3rd v Berdych and Nishikori. These are 2 big scalps and he should have no fears from Stanislas. An eye-catching 3-0 win v Federer required a tie break win for Stan. That galvanises a tournament where he has dropped only 1 set. This sets up an intriguing battle. Between them, these 2 have dispatched of 2nd, 4th, and 5th in the World. Tsonga has dispatched 4th and 5th. Wawrinka is 9th in the World. 3.4 for 3-0 Wawrinka is too short I feel, despite his spanking of the Fed. That may have been the Swiss familiarity factor in play? In current form , Tsonga should take a set. Remember the patterns. If Tsonga wins the first 2 sets, lay him match odds or 3-0 set betting.

2pm - Novak Djokovic v Andy Murray - 1.2 Murray simply cannot beat Novak at the moment and the frustrations from Ruby are well known.

1st v 3rd in the World. The way Novak brushed aside Nadal must be a worry for Murray. 2.34 for a 3-0 win tells you how confident the market are in Novak winning. 7 consecutive Djokovic head to head wins. 3 in 2015 saw 2 Final meetings. 2015 ATP World Tour Masters 1000 Miami FL, U.S.A. Hard F Djokovic, Novak 7-6(3), 4-6, 6-0 2015 ATP World Tour Masters 1000 Indian Wells CA, U.S.A. Hard S Djokovic, Novak 6-2, 6-3 2015 Australian Open Australia Hard F Djokovic, Novak 7-6(5), 6-7(4), 6-3, 6-0 Djokovic has won the first set in those last 7 meetings. So perhaps lay him 3-0 up if he does so again today as Murray is likely to win a set in a tiebreaker.