Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

I will do a review/preview video at DRT Facebook. Friday is normally my day off from Telegram as I work weekends but, you never know, some matches below may pique the interest later on.


SPANISH LA LIGA

20:00 - Alaves v Valladolid - 2.45 Alaves

  • Match outcome: Alaves have won 6/9 home matches against bottom-six teams. There have been +2.5 goals in 7/10 Valladolid away matches against bottom-six teams.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

19:30 - Hertha Berlin v Bayern Munich - 1.28 Bayern Munich

Hertha Berlin - 15th

  • Only 4 wins.
  • 4 losses and a 0-0 last 5 matches.
  • 2 consecutive home losses.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 4-3 loss v Bayern earlier this season.
  • Scored and conceded at home v the top 8.

Bayern Munich - 1st

  • Only 2 losses.
  • 7 wins and a loss last 8 matches.
  • 3 wins in 4 matches away.
  • Scored last 19 and last 10 away.
  • 2 consecutive away clean sheets.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 100% wins v 13th and lower home and away.

Conclusions

  • Both teams to score has a shout today with Hertha not winning. That's that Bayern's 100% win record v 13th and lower suggests.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

ITALIAN SERIA A

19:45 - Fiorentina v Inter Milan - 1.60 Inter Milan

Fiorentina - 11th

  • 4 draws and 2 wins at home recently.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home, only 1 at fulltime.
  • Not played the top 7 at home.
  • 4-3 loss v Inter last time.

Inter Milan - 2nd

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • A loss and 2 draws last 3 away.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 11th and lower.
  • 13/20 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Gap in form for Fiorentina at home v the top 7.
  • Inter Milan do not tend to lose but are on a 3 match winless streak away.
  • Lay any 2nd half 0-0.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

19:00 - Fortuna Sittard v Heracles - 2.62 Heracles

  • 1st half outcome: Sittard have drawn the first half in 5/8 home matches against middle-third teams while there have been -2.5 goals in 13/20 H Almelo away matches. H Almelo have conceded first in 12/20 away matches.
  • I would take note of the in-play stats for Fortuna Sittard. The stats have been very accurate in determining a good day for Fortuna.

PORTUGUESE PRIMEIRA LIGA

17:00 - Rio Ave v Nacional - 1.91 Rio Ave

Rio Ave - 14th

  • Only 1 win since 6th November 2020.
  • Draw and 2 losses last 3 matches.
  • 2 home wins v 8th and 13th.

Nacional - 11th

  • Only 4 wins but won their last match.
  • 1-1 draw v Benfica last away match.
  • No win 6 away.
  • Only away win v bottom of the league.

Conclusions

  • Nacional are unlikely to score that 2nd goal so that is a natural angle in. Best case 0-1 or 1-1?

19:00 - Benfica v Guimaraes - 1.44 Benfica

Benfica - 3rd

  • Poor run of only 1 win in 5. 3 1-1 draws and a loss last match.
  • Scored last 8 at home.
  • Unbeaten at home v 5th and lower.
  • 6/8 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • 6 goals scored at home last 15 mins of matches.

Guimaraes - 6th

  • A draw and 3 consecutive wins.
  • Only 2 losses in 10 matches came v Sporting Lisbon and Porto.
  • 5 wins and a draw last 6 away matches.
  • No defeat in 7 away.
  • Scored in their last 8 and last 6 away.
  • Not played the top 5 away. 3/3 losses v the top 4 came at home.

Conclusions

  • This is a match Benfica do not need to address their recent poor run of only 1 win in 5 matches. Guimaraes are unbeaten in 7 away. There may be a light at the end of the tunnel. Guimaraes have not met the top 5 away from home and have lost 3/3 matches v the top 4...with home advantage.
  • Watching brief for Benfica to ensure they'll play as per the odds.

19:00 - Maritimo v Sporting Lisbon - 1.50 Sporting

Maritimo - 10th

  • 3 losses and a win last 4 matches.
  • Failed to score last 2 matches.
  • All defeats, bar 1, home and away v the top 8.

Sporting Lisbon - 1st

  • Unbeaten.
  • 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of their last 8 away matches.
  • Scored in every match.
  • 12/18 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • I must be with Sporting until they show signs of a wobble.

21:00 - Boavista v Gil Vicente - 2.37 Boavista

  • Only 2 wins plays only 3 wins.
  • 16th v 17th, 2 bottom 3 sides.
  • A match making little appeal to me pre match. The in-play stats may reveal?

21:00 - Pacos Ferreira v Tondela - 1.73 Pacos Ferreira

Pacos Ferreira - 5th

  • 2 draws and 5 wins last 7 matches.
  • 5 wins and a draw last 6 home matches.
  • Scored in their last 13 matches.
  • Only home loss came v 1st.

Tondela - 9th

  • 3 consecutive 2-0 away defeats.
  • 5 consecutive away defeats.
  • Conceded in last 7 away.
  • Failed to score last 3 away.

Conclusions

  • On all known form, it is obvious that, like the Ambassador, we side with Pacos Ferrreira (Roche). Really eyecatching home form, scoring last 13, and playing a Tondela with 5 consecutive away defeats.

DUTCH EERSTE DIVISIE

17:45 - FC Eindhoven v Go Ahead Eagles - 2.10 Go Ahead Eagles

FC Eindhoven - 12th

  • 4 losses and a 0-0 last 5 matches.
  • 2 wins then 2 losses at home.
  • No draw in 7 at home.
  • Only 1 win v the top 13.
  • Very competitive v the top 9 at home. 2-5; 3-2; 2-4; 0-1; 2-3; 3-3.
  • 3-0 loss last head to head.

Go Ahead Eagles - 6th

  • 5 consecutive wins ended last match.
  • 4 consecutive away wins.
  • 6 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • 2+ goals scored away last 4 matches.
  • All wins away v 8th-18th.

Conclusions

  • Go Ahead Eagles wins v 8th - 18th away is compelling, when put aside Eindhoven's 4 losses and a 0-0 last 5 matches.
  • Eindhoven are consistently competitive v the top 9 at home so we may even see both teams score 2 goals so you may want to lay team leading 2-0/0-2but...6 clean sheets in 8 matches Go Ahead.

17:45 - TOP Oss v Jong AZ Alkmaar - 2.25 TOP Oss

TOP Oss - 15th

  • 2 draws, 5 wins and 4 losses recently.
  • 2 wins and 2 losses at home recently.
  • 3/3 wins v 16th and lower.
  • 0-1 win last head to head.

Jong AZ - 17th

  • 1-2 win and 2-2 last 2 away matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of 6 matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away, none at fulltime.
  • 1-2 win, 1-2 win, 2-0 loss away v 14th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Both sides tend to come alive v bottom sides making it tough to find a weakness.
  • Both teams could score today.

20:00 - Roda v Jong PSV Eindhoven - 1.73 Roda

Roda - 9th

  • Draw, Loss, Win, Win.
  • Conceded in their last 5 at home.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime at home (18%).
  • Unbeaten at home v 7th and lower.
  • 1-1 last head to head.
  • 8/12 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Jong PSV - 16th

  • Only 5 wins.
  • A draw and 2 defeats last 3 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 8 matches.
  • Conceded last 11 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Only 1 win away v top 15.

Conclusions

  • Both teams to score has a chance here.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. Roda are unbeaten at home v 7th and lower.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

20:15 - Swansea v Norwich - 2.62 Norwich

  • 2.62 the favourite in a tough league. Very limited research therefore.
  • Both sides have just the single loss since 5th December 2020.
  • One pattern I would seek to see end is Norwich's 2 consecutive 0-0's.
  • The Swans are unbeaten in 7 and in 10 at home.
  • Norwich are unbeaten in 6 matches.
  • 1-0 win for Norwich last head to head.
  • Swansea have lost only 1 home match.
  • 3 losses for Norwich away v 5th and 6th - they have conceded in all bar 1 match away v the top 13.
  • Angles? The market cannot split these 2 because they are in solid form since 5th December 2020. I would be keen to see the 0-0 end for Norwich.

SCOTTISH CHAMPIONSHIP

19:45 - Ayr v Hearts - 1.53 Hearts

Ayr - 5th

  • Only 1 win in 7 matches came last home match v Alloa Athletic.
  • No defeat in 6 at home.
  • 7/9 goals scored at home came 1st half.
  • 5-3 loss v Hearts earlier.
  • Failed to score at home v the top 3 this season.

Hearts - 1st

  • No draw.
  • All wins bar 3 defeats.
  • 3 wins and a loss last 4 away matches.
  • Scored every match.
  • 100% wins v 5th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Ayr came alive at home last match but should simply be outscored by Hearts as per the head to head result.
  • Hearts have scored in every match so remember that today.
  • If Ayr do score, it tends to be first half.