Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

This is a pre-Champions League and pre-Europa League weekend so please note that! We may see some struggles, particularly if participants are away from home. Today's candidates include Napoli (Empoli gave Juve a game!), PSG (play 2nd today) and Benfica (2 1-0 wins recently only v today's opponents in head to heads). No live chat today as I need the time to research Saturday and Sunday matches. There does seem to be some good 'angles' into some matches today.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

19:45 - Aston Villa v Bolton - 1.48 Aston Villa

  • 1-0 Aston Villa and 1-0 Bolton last season.

Aston Villa (17th)

  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • Only 2 wins in 14 matches. And 1.48 shots!
  • That may be down to the fact Villa have lost only 1 home match.
  • Only 2 clean sheets. Failed to score only last match.
  • 3-1-2-3-2-1 goals scored at home v 14th and lower.
  • 8 of 10 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • scored first in 5/7 matches.

Bolton (19th)

  • 4 losses and a draw last 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in 6 of their last 8 matches.
  • Wins v 5th, 6th, 9th and 22nd. 3 wins v current top 10 but totally inconsistent.

Conclusions

  • I've seen better 1.48 shots. I guess the market is strong on Villa because Villa are good at home, by good I mean they tend not to lose. Villa too have goals in them v 14th and lower, 2/3 scored regularly. Bolton themselves have failed to score in 6/8 recent matches.
  • Aston Villa are likely to score first as they tend to do at home and negate any real angle.
  • Bolton are one of those sides a trader does not like. INCONSISTENT. Beat 3 top 9 sides but failed to score in 6/8 matches!
  • Speculators might note that Villa tend to concede 2nd half, IF they concede at all. So if 1-0 late on, you may want to lay Villa.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

19:30 - Stuttgart v Eintracht Frankfurt - 2.54 Frankfurt

  • 2-1 Frankfurt and 1-0 Stuttgart last 2 head to heads.

Stuttgart (18th)

  • Bottom of the league but not out of it, as far as the market is concerned, today.
  • Only 1 win.0-0-2-0 goals scored at home. When they scored 2 goals, they won at home. Only twice have Stuttgart scored 2 goals, a draw and said win.
  • Only 1 clean sheet v struggling newly promoted Dusseldorf.
  • Not played 5th-16th at home so huge gap in form. Losses at home v the top 2.

Frankfurt (7th)

  • 3 wins and a draw in 4 matches. scored and conceded in all bar 1st match of the season.
  • 3 defeats this season came v 4th and higher.
  • Unbeaten v 5th and lower.
  • 5 of 7 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • The market is a headscratcher. We have bottom of the league, failing to score in 3/4 matches. Their only clean sheet v an equally poor Dusseldorf.
  • They play a Frankfurt who have only lost to the top 3 this season.
  • There must be a reason behind the market odds suggesting a tight match but on form, I have to be with Frankfurt who, like Anderlecht yesterday, tend to concede but not lose unless it is v the top 3.
  • That is my angle. Note Frankfurt score a lot 2nd half. They are likely to score given Stuttgart's single clean sheet and if not scoring first half, should score 2nd half.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

19:45 - PSG v Lille - 1.21 PSG

  • 3-1 and 0-3 PSG last 2 head to heads.
  • These are the top 2 form sides in France.
  • This is a pre-Champions League weekend.

PSG

  • 100% win record.
  • 4 consecutive clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • 3+ goals scored in all home matches.

Lille

  • 6 wins in 7 matches.
  • Draw, Loss, Win, Loss, Win away. Wins and losses were all one-goal-in-it results.
  • Top played top 7 away but 1-0 losses away to 8th and 12th.

Conclusions

  • Pre-Champions League sees PSG meeting the 2nd best team in France on current form. But that side have lost twice to top 12 and are unlikely to win today.
  • PSG tend to score first and lead at halftime. If 0-0 after 20 minutes you might want to back PSG lead halftime.
  • Team news worth looking at. I believe Cavani is absent. If any of the big names are rested initially, you might want to back 0-0 pre-match but that is only after team news (see flashscore.com line-ups).

ITALIAN SERIA A

19:30 - Napoli v Empoli - 1.27 Napoli

  • 2-0 Napoli and 2-3 Napoli last 2 head to heads.
  • Pre-Champions League for Napoli.

Napoli (3rd)

  • Only 2 losses came away v Juventus and Sampdoria.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • All wins at home bar a 1-1 v Roma latest.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • Not played 14th or lower at home but scored 3 goals in each of 3 matches v 10th and lower.
  • 8 of 10 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Empoli (18th)

  • Kept Juventus honest. Needed a Ronny penalty and wonder goal to secure the Juventus win.
  • Only win 1st match of season.
  • Not played top 8 away but lost to 9th-13th away.

Conclusions

  • Pre-Champions League Napoli so watch out for a banana skin.
  • On form, Napoli should be eyeing 3 goals at least today in a win. Empoli have yet to play top 8 but lost to 9th-13th away.
  • I would note Napoli scored 80% of home goals 2nd half so if no goal by halftime, keep the faith.
  • Just a peek at the team news too pre-Champions League.

PORTUGEUSE PRIMEIRA LIGA

20:30 - Benfica v Moreirense - 1.16 Benfica

  • 3 consecutive clean sheet Benfica wins in head to heads, 2 were 1-0.
  • Benfica have Champions League football on 7th November 2018.

Benfica (3rd)

  • Shock loss away to Belenenses last match.
  • Only loss of season.
  • 3 wins and a draw at home.
  • Only failed to score last match.
  • 2+ goals scored v 8th and lower in 5/6 matches.

Moreirense (12th)

  • 3 consecutive away defeats without scoring.
  • Conceded 3 goals in each of 3 matches v 7th and higher.

Conclusions

  • Pre-Champions League Benfica coming off a poor performance last away match.
  • In head to heads, they have beaten Moreirense 1-0 twice only. I sniff a shock coming on? But then Benfica this season have 2+ goals in them v 8th and lower and Moreirense concede 3 goals v top 7.
  • On season-form, 2-1, 3-0, 3-1 potential Benfica win.
  • Curse of Champions League? Could see those tight 1-0 wins surface with Benfica struggling to score as they did last match so laying at 1.18 does little harm but should not oblige on season form.
  • CURSE or season form? Which is it for you?

DUTCH EERSTE DIVISIE

19:00 - Twente v Waalwijk - 1.52 Twente

  • Only 2 losses Twente did come at home.
  • They have failed to score only once and that was in one of those defeats.
  • No 0-0 for Twente. Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not played 13th and lower so yet again another gap in form (Waal are 15th).
  • BUT Twente are unbeaten in 5 matches v 13th and lower away.
  • Strong first half scoring and conceding bias for Twente at home.
  • Only 3 wins Waalwijk. 2 were 3-2 wins.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • 4 consecutive away defeats.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Meet 3rd today. Waalwijk did beat 4th 2-3.
  • We may not see a trade today as opponents tend to score first in Waalwijk away matches.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Gap in form at home for Twente but if they are unbeaten v 13th and lower away from home then I am happy with that as an indicator to be with them today.

19:00 - Helmond Sport v Almere City - 2.06 Almere

  • 3-1 and 1-2 Almere last season.
  • No win for Helmond this season. 5 of their 6 draws were score draws.
  • Only 1 clean sheet Helmond came first match.
  • In 5 of 6 matches at home, both teams scored.
  • Conceded 2 goals at least in all bar 1 home match.
  • Helmond scored 7/8 home goals 2nd half.
  • Only 3 losses Almere but 2 consecutive losses were 1-0 only.
  • Those were the only 2 matches Almere failed to score.
  • 2/3 goals scored by Almere v 15th and lower and meet 18th today.
  • On form, Helmond should be conceding 2 goals yet again at home. Almere's 2 1-0 defeats recently need a context. They were v 1st and 3rd.
  • Away win for me. Worst case  is a score draw and I will with Almere throughout.

19:00 - Jong Utrecht v Roda JC - 1.61 Roda JC

  • Only 1 win for Jung.
  • 2+ goals conceded last 4 matches.
  • 2 losses then 2 draws Roda last 4 matches.
  • 3 consecutive 0-0's at halftime for Roda saw goals 2nd half.
  • Sole away losses v top 3 and play bottom today.
  • Strong 2nd half scoring and conceding stats.
  • This looks rather obvious and that is a good word for traders as we'll react if the obvious does not unfold in-play.
  • Away win on the cards. Draw worst case Roda. Note any 0-0 at halftime and expect at least 2 goals 2nd half.
  • Roda have, notably, scored 2 goals only once away so will need that defence to work. Jong have scored in 3/5 matches at home.
  • The undoing for Roda will be if they can only score 1 goal today.

19:00 - Cambuur v Jong Ajax - 2.24 Jong Ajax

  • Both teams score head to heads. Jong won the last 2.
  • 3 defeats in 4 now for Cambuur who have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home for Cambuur.
  • Not met top 11 at home so gap in form, meeting Jong who are 9th.
  • Wins v 13th and lower therefore.
  • 4 defeats in 6 for Jong Ajax. Failed to score only once.
  • 3 consecutive away defeats.
  • Not beaten top 14 away, 4 2-1 defeats and a 1-1. Play 8th today no.
  • On stats, lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Jong Ajax have slightly the worst form. 2-1/1-2 possibly appeal. If Jong lose away, it tends to be 2-1.
  • Concerns? Gap in form for Cambuur means we have nothing to gauge how they play top 11 sides at home.

19:00 - MVV Maastricht v Sparta Rotterdam - 2.04 Sparta Rotterdam

  • No head to head since 2016.
  • 3 losses this season for MVV came at home.
  • They have conceded in their last 5 at home and conceded 2 goals v all top 10 teams so far. Sparta are 2nd.
  • No win v top 10, 3/3 losses at home v top 6.
  • Sparta only lost their first match of the season.
  • 3 consecutive away draws may be the reason they are a touch of odds-against.
  • Failed to score only once. No win away v top 12 for Sparta, 3 draws and a loss - MVV are 11th.
  • Sparta are 2nd largely down to 100% home win record. They seem vulnerable away v top 12 without a win, albeit with 3 draws and a loss.
  • MVV are conceding 2 goals regularly v top 10. This suggests score draw best case for MVV, something like a 1-2 win if Sparta do win.
  • I would be with Sparta not to lose today but acknowledge they are weaker away.

19:00 - Dordrecht v Volendam - 2.42 Dordrecht

  • Only 1 win Dordrecht this season.
  • 2 consecutive score draws may be a sign of revival. In fact that sole win came within the last 4 matches.
  • Only clean sheet first match.
  • Playing 14th today. Dordrecht have 1-4 loss v 13th, 1-1 v 16th and 0-0 v 18th at home.
  • Volendam are unbeaten in 5 matches.
  • Both teams have scored in 4 of the last 5 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Volendam have 3 draws and a win v 15th and lower and meet 19th today.
  • Slight nod towards Volendam with their unbeaten record v teams below them in the league.
  • Dordrecht are likely to concede so note that even if scoring and there is a both teams to score pattern for Volendam.

19:00 - TOP OSS v EINDHOVEN - 2.14 TOP OSS

  • 1-2 Oss, 1-3 Oss, 1-1 last 3 head to heads.
  • Only 2 over 2.5 goals matches in 7 for Top Oss is very un-like Holland.
  • They failed to score in 5 of 7 matches.
  • Big gap in form for Oss at home v 11th -19th - significant because they play 17th today - did beat 10th and 20th at home.
  • Only 1 loss in 6 Eindhoven. With Oss in 6th, Eindhoven have 4 defeats and a 1-1 v top 5.
  • And it is here I will end the research. How the feck are Oss 6th if they have failed to score in 5 of their last 7 matches? If Eindhoven tend to lose to top 5, then they may be vulnerable to 6th, but that 6th is Oss!
  • In-play stats for me.