Only the Deportivo v Atl Madrid match had an angle in last night. The research pointed to Depor not winning and for a second half goals trend. 1-0 to Depor at halftime. Atl Madrid profited 2nd half. Job done.

I will try and do a Twitter chat at 19:00 tonight. No promises. I do live chats Saturday and Sunday and sometimes (for some inexplicable reason) my girlfriend wants to go out with me! It's not carved in stone though so if I am not there by 19:05, then I am elsewhere!

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16:00 - Tomsk v Rostov - 1.23 Rostov

• 3-0 the last time these 2 met in the Russian Premier League.

Tomsk 100% stats

• Bottom of the league.
• No 0-0 at home.
• Not scored in any matches played v top 7 teams.
• Only lost 1-0 to the top 3 so note that!
• Not scored in both halves.
• Not conceded in both halves at home.

Tomsk other stats

• Failed to score in 6 of the last 7 matches.
• Only 2 clean sheets.
• 10 of 12 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Rostov 100% stats

• No away win.
• 0-0, 0-0, 1-0 away v teams below them in the league.
• Beat Tomsk 3-0 at home.
• All away defeats were by a single goal.

Rostov other stats

• Failed to score in 6 of their last 8 matches.
• 6 clean sheets in their last 9 matches.

Conclusions

• The home side must be pants if the away side are strong favourites without an away win and without a goal scored v teams below them in the league away from home
• The market I think has seen Rostov score 7 goals in 2 home wins v the bottom 2 as an indicator that they will record their first win today. Are you with them?
• Tomsk are unlikely to score 2 goals so lay them if they score first. They have tended to be tight at home but conceded 6 and 3 goals away v 10th and 11th.
• Do not be surprised at all with a long drawn out 0-0. I do have to acknowledge the market is rock solid behind winless-away Rostov!

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19:00 - FC Eindhoven v Telstar - 1.59 FC Eindhoven

• Eindhoven tend to win, and in the last 3 head to heads, both teams scored.
• This is 9th v 14th in the Dutch Eerste Divisie.

FC Eindhoven 100% stats

• No home 0-0.
• v 15th and lower, all 2-1 scorelines, 1 defeat, the rest wins.

FC Eindhoven other stats

• No win in 4 matches.
• 2-2-2-6-2-3-4-1 goals scored at home recently.
• No draw in 10 at home.

Telstar 100% stats

• Not beaten a top 11 side away.
• No away match with exactly 4 goals.
• Both teams have scored last 7 away matches.
• In 13 matches v top 11 sides, only 1 win.

Conclusions

• Both teams could score today and Telstar not win.
• Lay any late draw and hope FC Eindhoven continue to avoid draws at home.

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19:00 - Volendam v Dordrecht - 1.35 Volendam

• 2-2 and 1-0 Dordrecht last 2 Eerste Divisie head to heads. The market expects this to end.
• This is 4th v 19th (2nd bottom) in Holland's second tier.

Volendam 100% stats

• No 0-0.
• Unbeaten at home v 13th and lower, scoring 2+ goals in each match.
• No over 4.5 goals matches at home.

Volendam other stats

• 2 consecutive 1-0 defeats.
• No draw in 7 matches and in 6 at home.
• Only failed to score in 2 matches at home.

Dordrecht 100% stats

• All defeats v top 11 away.
• Not won to nil away.

Dordrecht other stats

• Only 4 clean sheets.
• No win in 9 away.
• Only 1 away clean sheet.
• Conceded 2/3 goals away v top 6 sides.

Conclusions

• Volendam should end the winless head to head streak today.
• Volendam should score 2/3 goals today. Dordrecht have managed to score away v top teams but not win so note that if Dordrecht score first.

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19:00 - FC Oss v Jong Ajax - 1.76 Jong

• 7-0 to ajax last head to head in the Dutch Eerste Divisie.
• FC Oss are one of my favourite teams to follow - let's see why!

FC Oss 100% stats

• Conceded in every match.
• Lost all matches v top 8 teams (Jong Ajax are 2nd).
• Conceded 3 goals at least in those defeats.

FC Oss other stats

• Only 3 under 2.5 goals matches.
• Failed to score in only 2 of their last 19 matches.
• In 13 of the last 15 matches, at least one team has scored 3 goals.

Jong Ajax 100% stats

• Scored 2 goals at least in all away matches v 12th and lower.

Jong Ajax other stats

• Failed to score in only 3 matches.
• Both teams have scored in the last 7 matches and last 3 away.

Conclusions

• We should really see a goal fest here and at least one team score 3 goals (logic tells us it should be 2nd placed Jong Ajax, who nailed Oss 7-0 at their patch).
• Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score is logical despite no stats to back it up.
• If for some strange reason this match is 0-0 for a while, I would back over 3.5 goals or over 4.5 goals at enhanced odds.
• If Oss score 2 goals and lead they must be opposed!

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19:00 - MVV Maastricht v Almere City - 1.92 MVV

• 0-0 and 2-1 Almere in the last 2 head to heads in the Dutch Eerste Divisie.

MVV 100% stats

• 2 defeats at home came v teams above them - MVV are 5th and Almere are 8th.
• No over 3.5 goals matches at home.
• Not lost to nil at home.

MVV other stats

• Only 1 win in 7 matches.
• No defeat in 7 at home.
• 2 consecutive home 0-0's.

Almere City 100% stats

• No 0-0.
• Not beaten any top 11 team away.
• 100% over 1.5 goals away.

Almere City other stats

• Failed to score in only 3 matches.
• At least one team has scored 3 goals in 5 of their last 6 matches.
• Scored and conceded in their last 10 away matches.
• Both teams scored in all bar 1 away match.

Conclusions

• MVV's 2 consecutive home 0-0's should end today and could end with both teams scoring and Almere not winning - that's what the form says.
• MVV only lost v top 4 teams at home. If 0-0 for a while I would still expect goals - Almere have scored and conceded in all bar 1 away match.

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19:00 - De Graafschap v Breda - 2.46 De Graaf

• 1-0 Breda in the most recent head to head in Dutch Eerste Divisie.

De Graafschap 100% stats

• No 0-0 at home.
• Unbeaten at home v 4th - 11th (a draw and 4 wins).
• 100% over 1.5 goals at home.

De Graafschap other stats

• 3 wins in 4 matches.
• Only 5 clean sheets.
• 3 wins and a loss last 4 home matches.
• In their last 11 matches, De Graafschap matches have seen at least one team scoring at least 2 goals.
• Only 1 draw at home.
• Have scored 2+ goals at home in 10 of 11 matches v teams 6th and lower.

NAC Breda 100% stats

• No 0-0 away.
• All wins home and away v 15th and lower. De Graaf are 17th.
• Scored 2+ goals in those wins away v 15th and lower.
• 100% over 1.5 goals away.

NAC Breda other stats

• Failed to score in 5 matches.
• In 12 of 13 away matches, at least one team scored 2 goals at least.

Conclusions

• The market is strange here. NAC Breda have comprehensively beaten all teams 15th and lower home and away. Why are they not strong favourites today?
• On form, expectation is for one team to score at least 2 goals. That is such a strong trend with both teams so a 0-0 for a while or a 1-0 for a while would be anomolous.
• I suppose the odds are non-committal because De Graafschap have such a solid home record v teams 4th-11th. Both teams have shown a capacity to win.
• Dare we back 2-2 pre-match as a compromise here? We might get a trading angle through the match (the ideal progression for a 2-2 is a 1-1 scoreline then a 2-1/1-2, rather than a 2-0 which can turn into a 3-0 and poo-poo any trade).

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19:00 - Waalwijk v Helmond Sport - 2.16 Waal

• 2 consecutive score draws in Dutch Eerste Divisie head to heads.

Waalwijk 100% stats

• No 0-0.
• No win at all home or away v 8th-13th inclusive - Helmond are 12th.

Waalwijk other stats

• Only 5 clean sheets.
• Failed to score in only 4 matches.
• Scored and conceded in 8 of their last 10 matches.

Helmond 100% stats

• Not beaten a top 10 side away from home. Did beat 11th though.

Helmond other stats

• Failed to score in only 4 matches.
• Failed to score last 2 away matches.
• Conceded last 10 matches.

Conclusions

• Lay any late 0-0.
• Not for me. I can make an argument for laying Waalwijk but also Helmond.

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19:00 - Heerenveen v Go Ahead Eagles - 1.48 Heerenveen

Heerenveen 100% stats

• 2 head to head score draws ended with a 1-3 Heerenveen win last match.
• All wins v bottom 4 sides where Go ahead eagles reside.
• Scored 2 or 3 goals in those wins.
• No over 4.5 goals at home.

Heerenveen other stats

• 5 matches without a win ended with a win last match.
• Failed to score in only 4 matches.
• Led at halftime in only 1 home match.
• 16 of 19 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Go Ahead Eagles 100% stats

• Conceded in every away match.
• Not beaten a top 10 side away.
• No over 4.5 goals away.
• No 0-0.

Go Ahead Eagles other stats

• Only 3 clean sheets.
• Only 1 away win.
• 15 of 23 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

• Note the strong 2nd half scoring bias for Heerenveen and conceding bias for Go Ahead.
• If 0-0 at halftime, fear not!! I would attack the correct scores market with something like a 2-0, 3-1 scoreline.
• Heerenveen should not be losing this match.

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19:15 - FC Midtjylland v Lyngby - 1.7 FC Midt

• 1-0 Lyngby win in the only recent head to head.
• This is 3rd v 4th in the Danish Superliga.

FC Midtjylland other stats

• Failed to score in 5 matches.
• 1-1-0-0 scored in their last 4 home matches.
• Only 1 0-0 at home.
• 15 of 22 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
• Only 2 home losses.

Lyngby 100% stats

• No over 4.5 goals matches.
• No 0-0 away.

Lyngby other stats

• Lost away to 1st, 5th and 6th.

Conclusions

• Lyngby did well last time I researched them (backing 0-0 pre match). It might be another option if you want to go to the 0-0 well again (given the odds on home favs have only scored 1-1-0-0 in their last 4 home matches).
• No real appeal here for me. 3rd v 4th suggests a tight match. There are no solid angles. It takes research, of course, to come to this conclusion!!

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19:30 - Augsburg v RB Leipzig - 1.95 Leipzig

• 2-1 Leipzig the last time these 2 met in the German Bundesliga recently.

Augsburg 100% stats

• Not led at halftime at home.
• Not beaten a top 9 team.
• Scored and conceded in all 3 matches v the top 3.
• No home match with exactly 3 goals.

Augsburg other stats

• Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches.
• Opponents have scored first in 8/11 at home.

Leipzig 100% stats

• No draws away v 8th and lower. Augsburg are 13th.
• Not conceded in both halves away.
• No 0-0.

Leipzig other stats

• Failed to score in only 4 matches and lost those matches.
• No draw in 17 matches.
• Conceded in their last 6 away.
• Scored and conceded home and away v 7th to 13th in the league and did not lose.
• 10 goals scored away last 30 mins.

Conclusions

• Augsburg are likely to score first and we are unlikely to see a shock here.
• Both teams to score is a strong trend for both teams so note that.
• Lay any late draw.
• Do not expect a 0-0.

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19:45 - Birmingham v Leeds - 2.36 Leeds

• Birmingham have won the last 2 head to heads at Leeds and Leeds won at Birmingham the last time they visited in the English championship.

Birmingham 100% stats

• Have lost the 2 matches played v top 5 teams at home.

Birmingham other stats

• Only 3 wins in 16 matches.
• In their last 10 home matches, Birmingham have scored more than 1 goal in a match only once.
• 8 0-0's at halftime at home (47% of matches).
• 17 of 23 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Leeds 100% stats

• No 0-0.

Leeds other stats

• Scored and conceded in their last 6 away matches.
• Only 2 away draws.
• 7 0-0's at halftime away.

Conclusions

• Lay any late 0-0.
• Lay Birmingham if Birmingham score first. Why? They do not tend to score that 2nd goal at home so logically a team like Leeds, scoring and conceding in their last 6 away matches, could score an equaliser.

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19:45 - Betis v Sociedad - 2.76 Sociedad

• 2-1 and 1-0 Sociedad wins in the last 2 Spanish La Liga head to heads.
• 0-1 and 1-0 in the last 2 Betis home head to heads.

Betis 100% stats

• Not beaten a top 7 side, Sociedad are 5th.

Betis other stats

• Only 1 win in 7 matches came last match.
• 2 0-0's in their last 3 home matches.
• Not scored more than 1 goal in a home match v top 9 teams.

Real Sociedad 100% stats

• No away draw.
• No 0-0.
• All away wins have come v teams 9th and lower (Betis are 14th).

Real Sociedad other stats

• Only 4 losses in 17 matches.
• Failed to score in only 5 matches.
• 4 wins in 5 away matches - only recent loss was v Real Madrid.
• All wins bar 1 came v 9th and lower.
• 92% over 1.5 goals away.

Conclusions

• Lay any late draw and hope Sociedad continue to avoid the draw away. On form, I would have to be with Sociedad today given their wins almost exclusively come v teams 9th and lower.
• As Betis have not scored more than 1 goal in a home match v top 9, lay them if they score first.

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19:45 - Bordeaux v Lyon - 2.3 Lyon

• 3-1 Bordeaux, 3-0 Lyon and 1-3 Bordeaux in the last 3 French Ligue 1 matches.
• 2 top 5 sides might see a tight match today.

Bordeaux 100% stats

• Failed to score v top 3 and meet 4th today.

Bordeaux other stats

• 5 wins in their last 7 matches.
• Only 1 loss in 9 matches came v PSG.

Lyon 100% stats

• At least one team has scored 2 goals in all matches v top 6.

Lyon other stats

• Only 1 draw was a 0-0.
• At least one team has scored 2+ goals in each of Lyong's last 10 matches.
• Failed to score in 4 matches.
• 3 consecutive away defeats.
• No draw in 21 matches.
• Beat Monaco away and lost v 3rd, and 6th without scoring.

Conclusions

• Lyon are poor away from home which is a million miles away from their recent home form, scoring 3-1-4-4-5 goals.
• Lay any late draw if Lyon continue to avoid draws.
• I cannot dismiss Lyon such is their scoring but 3 consecutive away defeats is a worry.
• A match I would love were Lyon at home but I cannot find an ultra strong angle bar the laying the draw angle late on.

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