DRT Daily Tips Bulletin, February 3, 2017

Dutch Eerste Divisie Football - it must be Friday. I will try to be online on Twitter @drtclub for 19:00. No promises as it is Friday night and 'er indoors might want to go out. As I work weekends I must obey she-who-must-be-obeyed.
19:00 - FC Eindhoven v Almere City - 2.12 FC Eindhoven
FC Eindhoven 100% stats
FC Eindhoven other stats
- 6 consecutive home wins.
- Only 2 home defeats were 0-1.
- Lost 4-0 to Almere earlier this season.
- Only 2 home clean sheets.
Almere 100% stats
- No 0-0.
- Not beaten a top 12 side away (Eindhoven are 9th).
- Conceded in every away match.
- 100% over 1.5 goals away.
Almere City other stats
- Failed to score only twice.
- Scored and conceded in all bar 1 away match.
- 3-4-6 goals conceded in their last 3 away matches.
- Scored and conceded last 8 away matches.
Conclusions
- I will back 2-2 pre-match given Almere's scoring and conceding pattern away from home.
- Slightly favour FC Eindhoven today at home as they should be different - only the 2 losses at home.
- We should expect 2 goals bare minimum today so any 0-0 is anomolous the deeper into the match we get.
19:00 - Den Bosch v Breda - 2.28 Breda
- 0-0 the last time these 2 met in the Dutch Eerste Divisie.
- Breda are 5th in the league.
Den Bosch 100% stats
- Not beaten the top 6 yet.
Den Bosch other stats
- Only 1 loss in 7 matches.
- Failed to score in only 5 matches.
Breda 100% stats
- No away 0-0.
- 100% over 1.5 goals away.
Breda other stats
- Failed to score in only 4 matches.
- All defeats bar 1 v top 9 teams, Den Bosch are 13th.
Conclusions
- On form, Breda should not be losing today. They largely lose inside the top 10. A simple angle.
- I would lay the late 0-0 as 2 consecutive 0-0's between these 2 would be anomolous.
19:00 - Cambuur v Helmond Sport - 1.52 Cambuur
- 7th v 6th in the Dutch Eerste Divisie.
Cambuur 100% stats
- Unbeaten at home outside of the top 2.
- Scored in all home matches outside the top team.
- 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
- No 0-0.
Cambuur other stats
- Failed to score in only 4 matches.
- 7 wins and 2 defeats last 9 home matches.
- Scored and conceded in 9 of their 11 home matches.
Helmond Sport 100% stats
- Failed to score in the 3 away matches v top 8 sides.
- Not won to nil away.
Helmond Sport other stats
- Failed to score only 4 times.
Conclusions
- Cambuur should remain unbeaten today. A big scoring and conceding trend for Cambuur is in contrast with Helmond v top 8 sides away.
- Helmond will be layed if scoring first.
- We should expect 2 goals at least today.
19:00 - Dordrecht v Fortuna Sittard - 2.22 Dordrecht
- Fortuna won the 2 Dutch Eerste Divisie head to heads in 2016, scoring 3 goals on each occasion.
- These are 2 bottom 4 sides and are not in the bottom 4 because of their ultra reliability!
Dordrecht 100% stats
- No home 0-0.
- Unbeaten at home v 11th and lower so this may be their area of the league in which to get points.
Dordrecht other stats
- 2-2, 3-0, 3-0 last 3 home matches so will be brimming with confidence today.
- Only 3 clean sheets did come within the last 5 matches.
- Scored 2 goals at least in all encounters v bottom 4 teams.
Fortuna Sittard 100% stats
Fortuna Sittard other stats
- Only 1 win in 12 matches.
- Only 3 clean sheets.
- No draw in 10 away matches.
- Only 1 away win v bottom side.
Conclusions
- For me Dordrecht have the momentum coming into this match which suggests they can end the Fortuna head to head dominance.
- Dordrecht could score 2 goals at least today.
- Lay any late draw.
- CAVEAT - these 2 are pants! Remember that if relying on one team to perform as we'd hope.
19:00 - MVV Maastricht v Achilles 29 - 1.23 MVV
- Achilles remain bottom of the Dutch Eerste Divisie.
MVV 100% stats
- Scored in all home matches.
- All wins at home v 6th and lower - 2 goals scored at least in all of those matches.
- No over 3.5 goals matches at home.
MVV other stats
- Failed to score only 3 times.
Achilles 100% stats
- Conceded in all away matches.
- All defeats v top 5 conceding 2 goals at least.
Conclusions
- No need to go further. MVV should be scoring 2/3 goals today and winning. It was 2-3 earlier this season to MVV so if Achilles score first, I will back MVV.
19:00 - Jong Ajax v Waalwijk - 1.64 Jong Ajax
- Jong Ajax are 2nd in the Dutch Eerste Divisie.
Jong Ajax 100% stats
Jong Ajax other stats
- 7 wins in their last 8 matches.
- Failed to score in 3 matches.
- Only 4 clean sheets.
- No draw in 10 home matches.
- Both teams have scored in 8/11 home matches.
Waalwijk 100% stats
- No 0-0.
- Not beaten a top 12 side away.
Waalwijk other stats
- Failed to score in only 4 matches.
- Beat Ajax 3-2 earlier this season.
Conclusions
- Don't expect a 0-0.
- Jong Ajax should not lose today. Waalwijk have not beaten a top 12 side away from home.
- Both teams could score. Waalwijk failed to score in only 4 matches.
19:00 - Emmen v Volendam - 2.18 Volendam
- Volendam are 3rd in the Dutch Eerste Divisie.
Emmen 100% stats
- Not beaten a top 7 side at home.
- No over 3.5 goals matches at home.
Emmen other stats
- No win in 5 at home and 7 overall.
- 3 consecutive draws.
- 0-0'S at home v teams either side of Volendam in the league.
Volendam 100% stats
Volendam other stats
- 6 wins and 3 draws in their last 9 matches.
- Failed to score in only 3 matches.
- Scored in their last 12 matches.
Conclusions
- Volendam are highly likely to score. Do note Emmen's 0-0 v 2nd and 4th, they play 3rd today but I think Volendam will score.
- Lay any late draw. Emmen's draw sequence is set to end soon.
19:00 - VVV v De Graafschap - 1.57 VVV
VVV 100% stats
- Top of the league.
- No 0-0 at home.
- All wins v bottom 3 where De Graaf reside, scoring 2 or 3 goals.
- No over 4.5 goals matches.
VVV other stats
- 10 wins and 2 draws in their last 12 matches.
- Failed to score in only 3 matches.
- 5 consecutive wins.
De Graafschap 100% stats
- No away win.
- No win v top 7.
De Graafschap other stats
- 7 losses in 9 matches.
- Only 3 clean sheets.
- Conceded in their last 9 matches.
Conclusions
- VVV should be winning today, scoring 2 or 3 goals. Simple angle.
19:00 - ADO den Haag v Vitesse - 2.02 Vitesse
- 2-2, 2-2, 1-2 ADO in the last 3 head to heads in the Dutch Eredivisie.
ADO Den Haag 100% stats
- No 0-0.
- Failed to score at home v top 6 teams (Vitesse are 7th).
- Failed to score more than 1 goal in a match v teams above the in the league.
- No over 3.5 goals matches at home.
ADO other stats
- 13 losses, 2 wins and a draw in the last 16 matches.
- Only 3 clean sheets.
Vitesse 100% stats
Vitesse other stats
- Only 1 loss in 8 was v league leaders.
- Failed to score in only 2 matches and only 3 clean sheets so lends itself to both teams scoring.
- Scored last 7 away.
- Scored all away matches bar 1.
Conclusions
- Note Vitesse wins v teams around ADO away have been only 0-1 but still they are wins.
- A team only beaten by Feyenoord recently should be targeting an ADO team losing hand over fist.
- ADO actually have failed to score at home v top teams and I would have to lay them if they score first as they rarely score a 2nd at home.
- Do not expect a 0-0.
19:30 - Hamburg v Leverkusen - 2.12 Leverkusen
- Leverkusen tend to have the better of head to heads but Hamburg are unbeaten in their last 3 home head to heads in the German Bundesliga.
Hamburg 100% stats
- No home 0-0.
- All defeats bar a draw v top 10 teams (Leverkusen are 9th).
- Not scored in both halves at home.
Hamburg other stats
- Only 3 clean sheets.
- 3 losses in 4 matches.
- But a draw and 2 wins last 3 at home.
- 10 goals conceded at home last 30 mins of matches.
Leverkusen 100% stats
- No 0-0 away.
- Scored and conceded in all matches v the bottom 6 (Hamburg are 2nd bottom).
- All wins and defeats away have been by a single goal.
- No away match with exactly 4 goals total.
- Not led at halftime away.
Leverkusen other stats
- Scored and conceded in 9 of their last 10 matches.
- 7 of 8 away matches saw both teams score. 5 of those matches were 2-1/1-2.
- Opponents scored first in 7/8 away matches.
Conclusions
- It does look like Hamburg will not win again v a top 10 team. That said, Leverkusen give teams a chance away with their conceding and scoring.
- Don't be surprised if Hamburg score first. Given Leverkusen score and concede, Hamburg could concede after leading so note that.
- Looking at Leverkusen's patterns v bottom sides, we could see a variant of 2-1, 3-1 or 3-2 for either side today.
19:30 - Lokeren v Anderlecht - 1.79 Anderlecht
- Very tight matches in head to heads.
- This is the Belgian Pro League.
Lokeren 100% stats
- Not beaten a top 7 side - Anderlecht are 2nd and go top with a win.
- Not scored more than 1 goal in a match at home v top 9 teams.
- No over 3.5 goals matches at home.
Lokeren other stats
- 2 consecutive home 0-0's.
- Scored either 0 or 1 goals at home last 6 home matches.
- No defeat in 5 at home.
Anderlecht 100% stats
Anderlecht other stats
- 7 wins and 2 draws last 9 matches.
- Failed to score in only 3 matches.
- 2-3-3-2-4 goals scored in their last 5 away matches.
- Scored in their last 10 away matches.
- 4 consecutive away wins.
Conclusions
- Anderlecht's momentum should ensure they do not lose.
- Lokeren simply cannot beat top teams and cannot score that 2nd goal so must be layed if scoring first.
- Anderlecht should score 2 goals at least at their best today. Both sides have relatively high halftime 0-0%.
19:45 - Wigan v Sheff Wed - 2.34 Sheff
- Bottom 3 in the English Championship, Wigan are struggling.
Wigan 100% stats
- Not beaten top 12 teams at home (Sheff are 7th).
- Failed to score in all home matches v top 11 teams.
Wigan other stats
- 2 consecutive wins.
- Conceded last 7 homes.
Sheff Wed 100% stats
Sheff Wed other stats
- Only 2 defeats in 12 matches.
- Failed to score in only 4 matches.
- Only scored more than 1 goal away in 2 matches.
- Only 4 away wins, 3 were 0-1.
- 7 goals conceded last 15 mins of away matches.
Conclusions
- I would speculatively back 0-0 pre match and hope this is a tight match. Note Wigan cannot even score at home v top 10 teams. Note Sheff Wed have only scored 2 goals away on 2 occasions. Yes, they could score a single goal first half but nearly 1/2 of away matches have been 0-0 at halftime.
- Sheff Wed should not lose today.
19:45 - Metz v Marseille - 1.93 Marseille
- Marseille won 1-0 in the only recent head to head in French Ligue 1.
Metz 100% stats
- 2nd bottom of the league.
- Not beaten a top 9 team home or away - Marseille are 6th.
- No 1-0 or 0-1 at home.
Metz other stats
- Only 2 wins in 14 matches.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
- 89% over 1.5 goals at home.
Marseille 100% stats
- All wins v bottom 4.
- Not won to nil away.
Marseille other stats
- 5 of 6 draws were 0-0.
- All defeats bar 1 v top 9 teams.
- Scored and conceded away v teams below them in the league.
Conclusions
- If Metz cannot beat a top 9 team home or away and if Marseille have beaten all bottom 4, then logically we assume a good result for the away side.
- Both teams could score with Marseille not losing. I would want Metz to score first for the trade.
19:45 - Deportivo v Betis - 2.18 Deportivo
- Draws in the 2 Primera Liga head to heads recently.
- These 2 sides are in the bottom half of the table in Spain.
Deportivo 100% stats
- All defeats at home by 1 goal.
- No home match with exactly 4 goals in total.
Deportivo other stats
- Only 4 wins.
- 3 draws and a loss last 4 matches.
- Only 4 clean sheets.
- Only 1 0-0 at home.
- 8 of 10 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
Real Betis 100% stats
- No away draw.
- All away defeats v teams above them in the league (Depor are 16th to Betis's 13th).
Real Betis other stats
- 6 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches.
- 0-1-0-0 scored last 4 away.
- Unbeaten v teams below them.
Conclusions
- I am taken by Betis's unbeaten record v teams below them in the league. That might swing things against a Depor team with only 4 wins all season.
- That will be my key angle, to side with Betis even if Depor score first.