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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, February 3, 2017

Dutch Eerste Divisie Football - it must be Friday. I will try to be online on Twitter @drtclub for 19:00. No promises as it is Friday night and 'er indoors might want to go out. As I work weekends I must obey she-who-must-be-obeyed.

19:00 - FC Eindhoven v Almere City - 2.12 FC Eindhoven

FC Eindhoven 100% stats

No 0-0.

FC Eindhoven other stats

6 consecutive home wins.
Only 2 home defeats were 0-1.
Lost 4-0 to Almere earlier this season.
Only 2 home clean sheets.

Almere 100% stats

No 0-0.
Not beaten a top 12 side away (Eindhoven are 9th).
Conceded in every away match.
100% over 1.5 goals away.

Almere City other stats

Failed to score only twice.
Scored and conceded in all bar 1 away match.
3-4-6 goals conceded in their last 3 away matches.
Scored and conceded last 8 away matches.

Conclusions

I will back 2-2 pre-match given Almere's scoring and conceding pattern away from home.
Slightly favour FC Eindhoven today at home as they should be different - only the 2 losses at home.
We should expect 2 goals bare minimum today so any 0-0 is anomolous the deeper into the match we get.

19:00 - Den Bosch v Breda - 2.28 Breda

0-0 the last time these 2 met in the Dutch Eerste Divisie.
Breda are 5th in the league.

Den Bosch 100% stats

Not beaten the top 6 yet.

Den Bosch other stats

Only 1 loss in 7 matches.
Failed to score in only 5 matches.

Breda 100% stats

No away 0-0.
100% over 1.5 goals away.

Breda other stats

Failed to score in only 4 matches.
All defeats bar 1 v top 9 teams, Den Bosch are 13th.

Conclusions

On form, Breda should not be losing today. They largely lose inside the top 10. A simple angle.
I would lay the late 0-0 as 2 consecutive 0-0's between these 2 would be anomolous.

19:00 - Cambuur v Helmond Sport - 1.52 Cambuur

7th v 6th in the Dutch Eerste Divisie.

Cambuur 100% stats

Unbeaten at home outside of the top 2.
Scored in all home matches outside the top team.
100% over 1.5 goals at home.
No 0-0.

Cambuur other stats

Failed to score in only 4 matches.
7 wins and 2 defeats last 9 home matches.
Scored and conceded in 9 of their 11 home matches.

Helmond Sport 100% stats

Failed to score in the 3 away matches v top 8 sides.
Not won to nil away.

Helmond Sport other stats

Failed to score only 4 times.

Conclusions

Cambuur should remain unbeaten today. A big scoring and conceding trend for Cambuur is in contrast with Helmond v top 8 sides away.
Helmond will be layed if scoring first.
We should expect 2 goals at least today.

19:00 - Dordrecht v Fortuna Sittard - 2.22 Dordrecht

Fortuna won the 2 Dutch Eerste Divisie head to heads in 2016, scoring 3 goals on each occasion.
These are 2 bottom 4 sides and are not in the bottom 4 because of their ultra reliability!

Dordrecht 100% stats

No home 0-0.
Unbeaten at home v 11th and lower so this may be their area of the league in which to get points.

Dordrecht other stats

2-2, 3-0, 3-0 last 3 home matches so will be brimming with confidence today.
Only 3 clean sheets did come within the last 5 matches.
Scored 2 goals at least in all encounters v bottom 4 teams.

Fortuna Sittard 100% stats

No 0-0.

Fortuna Sittard other stats

Only 1 win in 12 matches.
Only 3 clean sheets.
No draw in 10 away matches.
Only 1 away win v bottom side.

Conclusions

For me Dordrecht have the momentum coming into this match which suggests they can end the Fortuna head to head dominance.
Dordrecht could score 2 goals at least today.
Lay any late draw.
CAVEAT - these 2 are pants! Remember that if relying on one team to perform as we'd hope.

19:00 - MVV Maastricht v Achilles 29 - 1.23 MVV

Achilles remain bottom of the Dutch Eerste Divisie.

MVV 100% stats

Scored in all home matches.
All wins at home v 6th and lower - 2 goals scored at least in all of those matches.
No over 3.5 goals matches at home.

MVV other stats

Failed to score only 3 times.

Achilles 100% stats

Conceded in all away matches.
All defeats v top 5 conceding 2 goals at least.

Conclusions

No need to go further. MVV should be scoring 2/3 goals today and winning. It was 2-3 earlier this season to MVV so if Achilles score first, I will back MVV.

19:00 - Jong Ajax v Waalwijk - 1.64 Jong Ajax

Jong Ajax are 2nd in the Dutch Eerste Divisie.

Jong Ajax 100% stats

No home 0-0.

Jong Ajax other stats

7 wins in their last 8 matches.
Failed to score in 3 matches.
Only 4 clean sheets.
No draw in 10 home matches.
Both teams have scored in 8/11 home matches.

Waalwijk 100% stats

No 0-0.
Not beaten a top 12 side away.

Waalwijk other stats

Failed to score in only 4 matches.
Beat Ajax 3-2 earlier this season.

Conclusions

Don't expect a 0-0.
Jong Ajax should not lose today. Waalwijk have not beaten a top 12 side away from home.
Both teams could score. Waalwijk failed to score in only 4 matches.

19:00 - Emmen v Volendam - 2.18 Volendam

Volendam are 3rd in the Dutch Eerste Divisie.

Emmen 100% stats

Not beaten a top 7 side at home.
No over 3.5 goals matches at home.

Emmen other stats

No win in 5 at home and 7 overall.
3 consecutive draws.
0-0'S at home v teams either side of Volendam in the league.

Volendam 100% stats

No 0-0.

Volendam other stats

6 wins and 3 draws in their last 9 matches.
Failed to score in only 3 matches.
Scored in their last 12 matches.

Conclusions

Volendam are highly likely to score. Do note Emmen's 0-0 v 2nd and 4th, they play 3rd today but I think Volendam will score.
Lay any late draw. Emmen's draw sequence is set to end soon.

19:00 - VVV v De Graafschap - 1.57 VVV

VVV 100% stats

Top of the league.
No 0-0 at home.
All wins v bottom 3 where De Graaf reside, scoring 2 or 3 goals.
No over 4.5 goals matches.

VVV other stats

10 wins and 2 draws in their last 12 matches.
Failed to score in only 3 matches.
5 consecutive wins.

De Graafschap 100% stats

No away win.
No win v top 7.

De Graafschap other stats

7 losses in 9 matches.
Only 3 clean sheets.
Conceded in their last 9 matches.

Conclusions

VVV should be winning today, scoring 2 or 3 goals. Simple angle.

19:00 - ADO den Haag v Vitesse - 2.02 Vitesse

2-2, 2-2, 1-2 ADO in the last 3 head to heads in the Dutch Eredivisie.

ADO Den Haag 100% stats

No 0-0.
Failed to score at home v top 6 teams (Vitesse are 7th).
Failed to score more than 1 goal in a match v teams above the in the league.
No over 3.5 goals matches at home.

ADO other stats

13 losses, 2 wins and a draw in the last 16 matches.
Only 3 clean sheets.

Vitesse 100% stats

No 0-0.

Vitesse other stats

Only 1 loss in 8 was v league leaders.
Failed to score in only 2 matches and only 3 clean sheets so lends itself to both teams scoring.
Scored last 7 away.
Scored all away matches bar 1.

Conclusions

Note Vitesse wins v teams around ADO away have been only 0-1 but still they are wins.
A team only beaten by Feyenoord recently should be targeting an ADO team losing hand over fist.
ADO actually have failed to score at home v top teams and I would have to lay them if they score first as they rarely score a 2nd at home.
Do not expect a 0-0.

19:30 - Hamburg v Leverkusen - 2.12 Leverkusen

Leverkusen tend to have the better of head to heads but Hamburg are unbeaten in their last 3 home head to heads in the German Bundesliga.

Hamburg 100% stats

No home 0-0.
All defeats bar a draw v top 10 teams (Leverkusen are 9th).
Not scored in both halves at home.

Hamburg other stats

Only 3 clean sheets.
3 losses in 4 matches.
But a draw and 2 wins last 3 at home.
10 goals conceded at home last 30 mins of matches.

Leverkusen 100% stats

No 0-0 away.
Scored and conceded in all matches v the bottom 6 (Hamburg are 2nd bottom).
All wins and defeats away have been by a single goal.
No away match with exactly 4 goals total.
Not led at halftime away.

Leverkusen other stats

Scored and conceded in 9 of their last 10 matches.
7 of 8 away matches saw both teams score. 5 of those matches were 2-1/1-2.
Opponents scored first in 7/8 away matches.

Conclusions

It does look like Hamburg will not win again v a top 10 team. That said, Leverkusen give teams a chance away with their conceding and scoring.
Don't be surprised if Hamburg score first. Given Leverkusen score and concede, Hamburg could concede after leading so note that.
Looking at Leverkusen's patterns v bottom sides, we could see a variant of 2-1, 3-1 or 3-2 for either side today.

19:30 - Lokeren v Anderlecht - 1.79 Anderlecht

Very tight matches in head to heads.
This is the Belgian Pro League.

Lokeren 100% stats

Not beaten a top 7 side - Anderlecht are 2nd and go top with a win.
Not scored more than 1 goal in a match at home v top 9 teams.
No over 3.5 goals matches at home.

Lokeren other stats

2 consecutive home 0-0's.
Scored either 0 or 1 goals at home last 6 home matches.
No defeat in 5 at home.

Anderlecht 100% stats

Not lost to nil away.

Anderlecht other stats

7 wins and 2 draws last 9 matches.
Failed to score in only 3 matches.
2-3-3-2-4 goals scored in their last 5 away matches.
Scored in their last 10 away matches.
4 consecutive away wins.

Conclusions

Anderlecht's momentum should ensure they do not lose.
Lokeren simply cannot beat top teams and cannot score that 2nd goal so must be layed if scoring first.
Anderlecht should score 2 goals at least at their best today. Both sides have relatively high halftime 0-0%.

19:45 - Wigan v Sheff Wed - 2.34 Sheff

Bottom 3 in the English Championship, Wigan are struggling.

Wigan 100% stats

Not beaten top 12 teams at home (Sheff are 7th).
Failed to score in all home matches v top 11 teams.

Wigan other stats

2 consecutive wins.
Conceded last 7 homes.

Sheff Wed 100% stats

No over 4.5 goals away.

Sheff Wed other stats

Only 2 defeats in 12 matches.
Failed to score in only 4 matches.
Only scored more than 1 goal away in 2 matches.
Only 4 away wins, 3 were 0-1.
7 goals conceded last 15 mins of away matches.

Conclusions

I would speculatively back 0-0 pre match and hope this is a tight match. Note Wigan cannot even score at home v top 10 teams. Note Sheff Wed have only scored 2 goals away on 2 occasions. Yes, they could score a single goal first half but nearly 1/2 of away matches have been 0-0 at halftime.
Sheff Wed should not lose today.

19:45 - Metz v Marseille - 1.93 Marseille

Marseille won 1-0 in the only recent head to head in French Ligue 1.

Metz 100% stats

2nd bottom of the league.
Not beaten a top 9 team home or away - Marseille are 6th.
No 1-0 or 0-1 at home.

Metz other stats

Only 2 wins in 14 matches.
Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
89% over 1.5 goals at home.

Marseille 100% stats

All wins v bottom 4.
Not won to nil away.

Marseille other stats

5 of 6 draws were 0-0.
All defeats bar 1 v top 9 teams.
Scored and conceded away v teams below them in the league.

Conclusions

If Metz cannot beat a top 9 team home or away and if Marseille have beaten all bottom 4, then logically we assume a good result for the away side.
Both teams could score with Marseille not losing. I would want Metz to score first for the trade.

19:45 - Deportivo v Betis - 2.18 Deportivo

Draws in the 2 Primera Liga head to heads recently.
These 2 sides are in the bottom half of the table in Spain.

Deportivo 100% stats

All defeats at home by 1 goal.
No home match with exactly 4 goals in total.

Deportivo other stats

Only 4 wins.
3 draws and a loss last 4 matches.
Only 4 clean sheets.
Only 1 0-0 at home.
8 of 10 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Real Betis 100% stats

No away draw.
All away defeats v teams above them in the league (Depor are 16th to Betis's 13th).

Real Betis other stats

6 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches.
0-1-0-0 scored last 4 away.
Unbeaten v teams below them.

Conclusions

I am taken by Betis's unbeaten record v teams below them in the league. That might swing things against a Depor team with only 4 wins all season.
That will be my key angle, to side with Betis even if Depor score first.