Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Ireland dominates today. Some good angles. Dundalk look very reliable. Will Bohemians come back from a poor run? In the World Cup, Portugal U20 and South Korea U20 must win. The tennis is still producing great trading angles - Del Potro was amazing. 1.07 at the off, his odds soon rose to 11 as he injured his knee. But no, he came back for more and eventually won! Quite superb. If you had kept the faith and backed Del Boy at 11, take a bow!

IRISH PREMIER DIVISION

19:45 - St Patricks v Cork City - 2.22 St Pats

  • In days gone by (well last season) Cork City would be comfortable favourites.

St Pats (5th)

  • Failed to score 2 goals in their last 6 matches, resulting in only 1 win.
  • 7 of 9 goals scored at home came 1st half.
  • 1-0 and 1-1 v Cork already this season.

Cork (8th)

  • 3 wins and 2 defeats recently. One defeat v Dundalk. An inkling that Cork might be steadying the ship.
  • 4 defeats then 2 wins last 6 away.
  • No away draw.
  • Wins away v 3rd, 6th, 9th and 10th.

Conclusions

  • The enigma that is Cork City. Doing a Villareal/Schalke - i.e. solid last season but all gone Pete Tong this season.
  • There is a hint at improvement from Cork City of late. 3 wins, and 2 defeats, one of those defeats v league leaders Dundalk. Enough to suggest (coupled with St Pats recent inability to score 2 goals), to lay St Pats (with 1-0 cover) if they score first.

19:45 - Bohemians v Finn Harps - 1.55 Bohemians

Bohemians (3rd)

  • 4 losses and a draw last 5 matches.
  • 3 consecutive home defeats.
  • 1-0 wins home and away v Finn Harps this season.
  • 4 defeats this season came v last year's top 2.

Finn Harps (10th)

  • Only 2 wins came at home.
  • No win in 9 away. Conceded last 7 away.
  • Failed to score away v the top 5.

Conclusions

  • Bohs are going through a poor bit of form but may get away with it today with Finn Harps failing to even score away v the top 5.
  • Wins v Finns have only been 1-0. You may want to back 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 pre match and hope it is 0-0 for a while.

19:45 - Dundalk v Sligo Rovers - 1.27 Dundalk

Dundalk

  • 9 wins and a 2-2 draw recently.
  • 8 wins and a draw last 9 at home.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • Scored last 11 matches and last 10 at home.
  • 14 of 19 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 1-1 and 2-1 loss v Sligo this season.

Sligo Rovers

  • Unbeaten in 7 matches and only 1 loss since 12th April.
  • 1-1 away v 1st, 3-0 loss away v 2nd and 1-2 win away v 3rd.
  • 8 of 11 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Given Dundalk are yet to beat Sligo, value seekers might look to lay Dundalk if Dundalk score first. The market does, though, expect that solid recent run to continue (but then Sligo are unbeaten in 7 as well).

FIFA U20 WORLD CUP

17:00 - Mali U20 v France U20 - 2.04 France U20

  • Group E sees France 2/2 wins and Mali 1 win and 1 draw. These 2 are the dominant forces.
  • All we have really is collateral form to work from.
  • France have 2 2-0 wins. A 12th minute Saudi red card in the first match clouds the form. France have scored before halftime in their 2 matches.
  • Mali have conceded a penalty in each of their 2 matches but conceded 3 goals against the Saudis.
  • Obviously this Mali defence looks leaky and France could exploit this. But it seems these sides are qualified 1st and 2nd.

17:00 - Saudi Arabia U20 v Panama U20 - 2.24 Saudi Arabia U20

  • 2-0 loss to France and 2-4 loss to Mali for Saudi Arabia sees the Saudis bottom of Group E and without a hope of qualifying top 2.
  • Panama have a draw and a loss, a draw v Mali and a loss v France.
  • If Mali lose, there is an outside chance of Panama catching Mali but they need Mali to lose, and them to win with enough goals to cut the goal difference.
  • The market slightly favours the Saudis. I have no strong opinion.

19:30 - South Africa U20 v Portugal U20 - 1.2 Portugal U20

  • Group F sees South Africa out of it, but Portugal on 3 points in with a qualification chance (3rd currently but same points as Korea).
  • South Africa lost 5-2 v Argentina and 0-1 v Korea. Portugal beat Korea 1-0 and lost 0-2 to Argentina.
  • The onus is on Portugal U20 here. Must win for them as they are on the same points as South Korea who play Group Leaders Argentina U20.

19:30 - South Korea U20 v Argentina U20 - 2.16 Argentina U20

  • Must won for South Korea. 1-0 loss v Portugal and 0-1 win v South Africa.
  • 5-2 win v South Africa and 0-2 win v Portugal for Argentina, clearly the best side in the group but will they wring the changes with qualification assured and this being a tournament? It is a must win for South Korea U20 who must better Portugal U20.

IRISH FIRST DIVISION

19:45 - Athlone Town v Limerick - 1.89 Limerick

Athlone (8th)

  • 9 losses and a draw last 10 matches.
  • 5 losses and a draw last 6 at home.
  • Conceded last 10 and last 7 at home.
  • All defeats at home v top 7.

Limerick(6th)

  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • 3 losses and a win away for Limerick recently.
  • Undefeated v 7th and lower.

Conclusions

  • It looks clear cut. Limerick should eye the win today, worst case a draw.

19:45 - Cobh Ramblers v Bray - 1.78 Bray

Cobh Ramblers (9th)

  • No wins v the top 6. All defeats home and away bar a draw.
  • 1-0 loss to Bray earlier this season.
  • No win in 6 matches.
  • 3 losses and a draw last 4 at home.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.

Bray (5th)

  • 3 consecutive wins.
  • 4 losses and a win last 5 away.
  • No draw in 7 away.
  • win away v 7th and 8th, loss v 10th.

Conclusions

  • On seasonal form, Cobh cannot beat the current top 6. Bray though have 4 losses in 5 away but wins away v 7th and 8th which hints 9th may be within their compass (despite losing to 10th away!).

These 3 matches below are not in the in-play coupon today but I will research.

19:45 - Galway v Cabinteely - 2.25 Cabinteely

Galway (7th)

  • Only 4 wins.
  • 2 consecutive wins at home.
  • No draw in 13 matches.
  • Beat 2nd at home but that is part of a run of 1 win and 8 losses home and away v the top 6.
  • 3 of the defeats at home v top 6 were 0-1.
  • 1-0 loss v Cabinteely earlier this season.

Cabinteely (4th)

  • Only 1 away loss.
  • 4 wins out of 4 v 7th and lower.
  • 6 wins and a draw ended with 2 consecutive defeats.

Conclusions

  • Cabinteely have a good record v 7th and lower but the market is a little hesitant with a 2.25 odds quote.
  • Galway did beat 2nd at home but 8 other losses v the top 6 suggests a loss more than a win.
  • Lay any late draw? No draw in 13 for Galway.

19:45 - Shelbourne v Longford - 2.3 Shelbourne

Shelbourne (1st)

  • 5 wins in 6 matches.
  • 6 consecutive home wins.
  • Not beaten the top 4 this season. 2-0 loss v Longford earlier this season.

Longford (2nd)

  • Only 2 losses this season came within the last 3 matches.
  • One of those was an away loss.
  • 3/3 wins v the top 2.
  • But...draw, draw, loss v 4th, 6th and 7th away.

Conclusions

  • I was going to ask why a side with such a strong record is only 2.3 odds but then I saw how Shelbourne have not beaten the top 4. Not a match I have a strong opinion on because Longford away form is mixed, draw, draw, loss v 4th, 6th and 7th away.

19:45 - Wexford v Drogheda - 1.5 Drogheda

Wexford (10th)

  • Only 2 wins.
  • 3 losses and a draw last 4 matches.
  • Only clean sheets came in the wins.
  • Have scored 2 goals at home last 2 home matches.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 4 matches.
  • All defeats v the top 5 3/3 losses at home v top 4, conceding 2 goals.

Drogheda (3rd)

  • 4 wins in 5 matches.
  • 4 wins in 5 away.
  • 2 consecutive clean sheets.
  • 100% wins home and away v 7th and lower.

Conclusions

  • It looks clear cut. The home side have 3/3 losses v the top 4, conceding 2 goals. The away side 100% win record v 7th and lower.