Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

DRT Daily Research Bulletin, March 31, 2017

League Football returns tonight. The Irish Premier League is only 5 matches old so I will not research it yet. It will be a good Friday league once we get some form on board. I'll list the matches below. I would recommend noting the odds and then seeing if the short priced favourites play as such via the in-play stats.

18:00 - Guingamp v Nancy - 1.91 Guin

0-2 Guingamp in the last head to head.
This is 10th v 18th in the French Ligue 1.

Guingamp 100% stats

No draw v the bottom 3.
Wins at home v 19th and 20th.
No 0-0.
No home match with exactly 4 goals.

Guingamp other stats

Only 6 clean sheets.
2 wins in 3 home matches includes v Lyon.
Only 1 defeat at home v teams 4th and lower.
18 of 20 goals scored after the 30th minute at home.

Nancy 100% stats

Not beaten a top 9 team away.

Nancy other stats

6 matches without scoring have ended last 2 matches but still 7 defeats and a 0-0 last 8 matches.
3 consecutive 1-0 away defeats.
Failed to score in 11 away matches.

Conclusions

Not a top team clash in France but here I would favour Guingamp today and lay Nancy if Nancy score first. Nancy have scored 2 goals only twice away and indeed have failed to score in 11 away matches.

19:00 - Waalwijk v Volendam - 2.62 Volendam

2-1 Waalwijk and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.
This is 9th v 5th in the Dutch Eerste Divisie.

Waalwijk 100% stats

No 0-0.
Unbeaten at home v top 6.

Waalwijk other stats

Scored and conceded in 8 of their last 9 matches.
Failed to score in only 4 matches.
Only 6 clean sheets.
Scored in their last 8 home matches.
Failed to score in only 1 match.

Volendam 100% stats

No 0-0.

Volendam other stats

3 1-1 scorelines in the last 4 matches.
Failed to score in only 5 matches.
Unbeaten away v top 4 but not won v 6th-10th inclusive.

Conclusions

Lay any late 0-0.
Both teams could score today. Waalwijk especially I would expect to score if 0-0 for a while.

19:00 - De Graafschap v Jong PSV - 1.95 De Graaf

1-0 Jong PSV last head to head.
This is 14th v 3rd in the Dutch Eerste Divisie.

De Graafschap 100% stats

Conceded 2 goals v 1st and 2nd at home.
100% over 1.5 goals at home.
No 0-0 at home.

De Graafschap other stats

5 wins in their last 6 matches.
In 7 of their last 8 matches, De Graafschap have scored at least 2 goals.
Only 6 clean sheets.
5 wins in 6 home matches.
No draw in 15 matches.
7 consecutive over 2.5 goals at home.
Only 1 home draw.
87% over 2.5 goals at home.

Jong PSV 100% stats

No away match with exactly 4 goals.

Jong PSV other stats

7 wins, a 0-0 and a 0-1 loss in their last 9 matches.
4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
Only 2 away wins v top 16 teams - poor form for a team 3rd in the league.
0-0 away v 12th, 15th and 16th and 1-0 defeat v 13th. De Graaf are 14th.

Conclusions

Both sides are in excellent form. Slight concern for me that Jong PSV do 0-0's v teams around De Graaf's in the league. That is in contrast to both teams scoring, and over 2.5 goals in De Graaf matches.
No clear cut angles for me in this match. Do you see any pattern?

19:00 - Helmond Sport v Dordrecht - 1.76 Helmond

Helmond have won the last 2 head to heads away at Dordrecht.
This is 13th v 19th in Dutch Eerste Divisie.

Helmond Sport 100% stats

No home 0-0.
Scored and conceded in the 3 matches v bottom 2.

Helmond Sport other stats

8 defeats in their last 9 matches.
Failed to score last 3 matches.
Conceded last 14 matches.
Only 6 clean sheets.

Dordrecht 100% stats

Not beaten a top 11 side away.
Not won to nil away.

Dordrecht other stats

Only 3 wins since 16th October came at home.
Only 4 clean sheets.
No win in 11 away.
Scored and conceded in 7 of 8 matches away v 9th and lower.

Conclusions

2 poor teams in poor form yet Helmond are odds on favourites. All I can say is that Dordrecht must be pants!
I could see both teams scoring today.Would you trust a team like Helmond? But then would you trust a Dordrecht side with only 3 wins since October?

19:00 - FC Oss v Achilles 29 - 1.68 FC Oss

1-1 and 1-2 Oss in the last 2 head to heads.
This is 17th v 20th in the Dutch Eerste Divisie.

FC Oss 100% stats

No clean sheet.
Unbeaten home and away v 16th and lower.
Scored and conceded in those matches.
4-2 v 18th and 19th at home.
100% over 1.5 goals.

FC Oss other stats

In 14 of 17 matches at least one team scored 3+ goals.
Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
87% over 2.5 goals at home.

Achilles other stats

Only 3 wins.
4-3-0-3-3 conceded in their last 5 matches.
Only 2 clean sheets.

Conclusions

Oss are poor but come alive v bottom 5 sides. I could see Oss score 3 goals today and both teams score. Back Oss if Achilles score first.
Expect 3+ goals in total today.
Given the hope for goals, lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

19:00 - Cambuur v Emmen - 1.53 Cambuur

0-1 Cambuur in the last head to head.
This is 6th v 10th in the Dutch Eerste Divisie.

Cambuur 100% stats

No 0-0.

Cambuur other stats

Failed to score in only 6 matches.

Emmen 100% stats

No away 0-0.

Emmen other stats

In 8 of their last 9 matches, at least one team has scored 2 goals.
Scored last 11 matches and last 11 away.
Scored and conceded last 7 away matches.
Of the top 7 teams, only beaten Volendam home and away.

Conclusions

Lay any late 0-0. No strong stats/patterns from Cambuur.
Not a match to prioritise.

19:00 - Almere City v Telstar - 1.47 Almere

3-3, 2-2, 0-2 Telstar and 3-6 Almere in the last 4 head to heads.
This is 8th v 15th in the Dutch Eerste Divisie.

Almere City 100% stats

No 0-0.
Unbeaten at home v teams below them in the league.

Almere other stats

Failed to score in only 3 matches.
3-3-0-3-2-1-3-3 goals scored in recent matches.
Unbeaten in 5 matches.
6-2-2-3-0-3-3 goals scored recently at home.

Telstar 100% stats

Not beaten a top 12 side away.

Telstar other stats

Only 3 wins since 21st October.
Only 2 clean sheets since November 2016.
Conceded last 9 away matches.

Conclusions

Lay any late 0-0.
Almere should get on the score sheet today. Telstar are poor defensively. 2+ goals even for Almere today.
On form, Almere should be outscoring Telstar so lets oppose the away side if they lead in this match.

19:00 - VVV v Breda - 1.65 VVV

0-0 the last time these 2 met.
This is 1st v 7th in the Dutch Eerste Divisie.

VVV 100% stats

Unbeaten v 6th and lower at home.
No home 0-0.

VVV other stats

Only 3 losses since 23rd September.
10 home wins in their last 11 matches.
Failed to score in only 4 matches.
4-7-4-4 scored in their last 4 home matches.

NEC 100% stats

No away 0-0.
Not beaten a team above them in the league away.
100% over 1.5 goals away.

NEC other stats

No draw in 9 matches sees 4 wins in 5 matches.
Failed to score in only 5 matches.
Only 1 away draw.
Only 1 away win v top 15 sides.

Conclusions

Lay any late 0-0.
VVV should win today. Will they score 4 goals again?
Back NEC if VVV score first.
Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
Lay any late draw.

19:00 - FC Eindhoven v Den Bosch - 1.79 FC Eindhoven

3-1 Den Bosch and 0-2 Eindhoven in the last 2 head to heads.
This is 11th v 12th in the Dutch Eerste Divisie.

FC Eindhoven 100% stats

No draw at home v 5th and lower.
No 0-0 at home.

FC Eindhoven other stats

3 consecutive defeats.
Only 4 clean sheets.
No draw in 12 at home.
9 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches at home.
9 wins and 2 losses at home v 6th and lower.

Den Bosch other stats

Only 2 wins away v teams above them in the league.

Conclusions

Lay any late draw in this match.

19:30 - Hertha v Hoffenheim - 2.6 Hoff

2.6 odds tells you the market cannot split these 2 teams.
Hoff have won 4 of the last 5 head to heads. Hertha won the last home head to head.
This is 5th v 4th in the German Bundesliga hence the market hesitancy in picking a favourite.

Hertha 100% stats

No home 0-0.
Unbeaten v top 12 at home.
Scored and conceded in the 3 home matches v top 6 sides.
No over 3.5 goals at home.
Not conceded in both halves at home.

Hertha other stats

4 wins and a draw last 5 home matches. Good home form beating Dortmund and drawing with Bayern to boot.
Only 1 home loss.
10 wins and a loss at home v 3rd and lower.

Hoffenheim 100% stats

Not beaten a top 10 team away with 5 draws and a loss.
Not lost to nil.

Hoffenheim other stats

Only 1 win in 7 away matches.
Failed to score only twice.
Scored and conceded last 4 away.

Conclusions

Hertha are in such good recent home form that they must be confident today of a win against a Hoff side drawing too many against the top 10 away.
2-1 / 1-2 as a trading angle interests me today given Hoff tend to score but tend to draw. 1-1 would be a great scoreline with which to profit from a 2-1/1-2.
I would lay Hertha 1-0 if 1-0 late on. Hoff have not lost to nil this season.

19:45 - Derby County v Queens Park Rangers - 2.00 Derby

4 1-0 scorelines and a 2-0 in the last 5 head to heads. Will this match continue to be as tight?
This is 10th v 15th in English Championship.

Derby County 100% stats

No home match with exactly 4 goals.

Derby County other stats

Only 1 win in 10 matches.
Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 home matches.
Only 3 wins in 15 matches.
12 0-0's at halftime at home.
17 of 24 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

QPR other stats

5 wins, a draw and a loss last 7 matches. Good RECENT form.
Conceded in those wins.
Only 6 clean sheets.
Scored and conceded in 10 of their last 12 matches.
16 of 18 halftime scores were either 0-0, 1-0 or 0-1.
15 of 20 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

Both teams have strong both teams to score stats.
Both teams have strong 2nd half scoring and conceding bias so my angle here? If 0-0 at halftime I could back over 2.5 goals or 1-1.

19:45 - Dundee v Aberdeen - 1.61 Aberdeen

1-3 and 3-0 Aberdeen in the last 2 head to heads.
This is 8th v 2nd in the Scottish Premier League (SPL).

Dundee other stats

3 consecutive defeats.
Lost to top 2 in the 5 matches played this season.
Beat Rangers 2-1 at home recently so can surprise.

Aberdeen 100% stats

No away match with exactly 2 goals.
No away draw v 6th and lower.

Aberdeen other stats

10 wins and 2 losses in their last 12 matches.
3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
No draw in 13 away.
11 goals scored away in the last 1/2 hour of matches.

Conclusions

At their best Aberdeen could score 3 goals today. At their worst, they lose 1-0 away.
Dundee recently beat Rangers 2-1 so have a surprise in them.
Lay any late draw.
Aberdeen have been great for trading recently so if in a pickle late on, keep faith in them scoring, particularly if the inplay stats favour them. A good trading side this season if we keep on their side regardless of how the match progresses.

19:45 - Espanyol v Betis - 2.1 Espanyol

0-3 v Betis and 0-1 Espanyol in the last 2 head to heads.
This is 9th v 13th in Spanish La Liga.

Espanyol 100% stats

Unbeaten at home v 12th and lower.
No 1-0 or 0-1 at home.

Espanyol other stats

3-3-1-3-4 goals scored in recent home matches.
No 0-0 at halftime in 11 matches.
Scored in their last 8 at home.

Betis 100% stats

Conceded in all away matches.
All defeats away v top 10.
No 0-0 away.

Betis other stats

Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.

Conclusions

On form Espanyol should not lose today. In fact, they could threaten 3 goals again.
Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
Back Espanyol or back 3-1 if Betis score first.

The Irish Premier League - still a young league. I will begin researching once there are 9 matches played.

19:30 - Dundalk v Drogheda - 1.26 Dundalk

19:45 - Derry v Bray - 1.99 Derry

19:45 - Galway Utd v Sligo Rovers - 2.48 Galway

19:45 - Bohemians v St Patricks - 2.48 St Pats

19:45 - Limerick v Cork City - 1.8 Cork

20:00 - Shamrock Rovers v Finn Harps - 1.37 Shamrock