Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

I recorded a review/preview video yesterday at the DRT Facebook page. I got a bit ahead of myself. There seems to be plenty of opportunities today.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

19:45 - Cardiff v Reading - 2.15 Cardiff

  • Match outcome: Cardiff have won 4/5 home matches against bottom-half teams while Reading have lost 6/8 away matches against middle-third teams. Cardiff have had W/W double results in 3/5 home matches against bottom-half teams.

Cardiff - 12th

  • Good win over West Brom  at home mid week.
  • Only 2 losses sine 23rd November 2019.
  • Only 2 wins in 9 suggests...drawitis.
  • 3 consecutive home draws, (2 0-0) ended with that West Brom win.
  • 6 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • All home wins v 14th and lower.
  • 3-0 loss to Reading earlier head to head.

Reading - 15th

  • No win in 4.
  • 8 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Bitty away form. Wins away v 4th, 7th, 19th and 22nd.
  • 12 of 16 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • We may see 0-0 at halftime here.
  • What may swing it for Cardiff is their 100% win record v 14th and lower at home.

19:45 - Derby County v Stoke -2.7 Derby

  • Match outcome: Derby have won 8/9 home matches against bottom-six teams while Stoke have lost 6/9 away matches against bottom-half teams. Derby have had W/W double results in 7/9 home matches against bottom-six teams.
  • 2.7 the favourite in the tough English Championship. You saw mid week that these matches were tough to call.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

19:30 - Hertha Berlin v Schalke - 2.62 Schalke

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 9/11 Hertha Berlin home matches and in 12/18 Schalke 04 away matches. Schalke 04 have won 6/8 away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • You saw in the English Championship matches mid week that these kinds of odds suggest unreadable and tough to trade matches. So please note that coming into this one. Just cursory research here therefore.
  • Only 1 loss in 6 for Hertha came v Bayern Munich. 2 matches post winter break.
  • Only 1 win for Hertha at home v the top 10. Schalke are 6th. 3-0 loss v Schalke earlier this season.
  • Only 4 losses all season for Schalke, 2 of which came v Bayern Munich. 3 losses came away.
  • Schalke conceded last 8 away.
  • Schalke are unbeaten home and away v 8th and lower ....Hertha are 13th.
  • Angles? 2.62 the favourite suggests a messy, unreadable match. Seasonal form? We're with Schalke surely?

BELGIAN JULIPER LEAGUE

19:30 - Kortrijk v Standard Liege - 1.91 Standard

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/11 KV Kortrijk home matches and in 8/10 Standard Liege away matches. There have been +3.5 goals in 5/9 KV Kortrijk home matches against top-six teams.

Kortrijk - 12th

  • Loss and a draw post Winter Break, conceding 2 goals in each match.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not beaten a top 7 side home or away. 2-1 loss v Standard last head to head.
  • 14 of 21 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Standard - 4th

  • 2 losses, 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses, 2 wins. Welcome to Standard's world!
  • 2-3 and 2-1 wins post Winter Break.
  • 2-2-1-3 goals scored away last 4 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 9/10 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 8 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • Kortrijk have yet to beat the top 7 home or away. Enough to hang out hat on? Standard are 2/2 wins since the Winter Break but remember they are thoroughly inconsistent in terms of collecting sustained wins. Standard do concede so may do so today.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

19:45 - Rennes v Nantes - 2.05 Rennes

  • 1st half outcome: Rennes have drawn the first half in 7/9 home matches against top-six teams while there have been -2.5 goals in 16/20 Nantes away matches. Nantes have lost 14/18 away matches against top-six teams.

Rennes - 3rd

  • Only 2 losses in 11 matches.
  • 5 wins and a loss last 6 matches at home.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • 4/5 wins recently were 1-0.
  • Not conceded that 2nd goal in 10 matches now.
  • 5 consecutive 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 2/3 losses at home were 0-1. 1-0 loss v Nantes earlier this season.

Nantes - 6th

  • 4 wins and 3 losses last 7 matches.
  • 2 consecutive away wins.
  • 7 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches.
  • Not scored that 2nd goal home or away v the top 14 this season. 5 wins were 1-0. 2 losses were 2-0, 3 losses were 2-1.
  • 9/11 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Lay Nantes if Nantes score first but cover the 0-1 lead. Rennes have not conceded that 2nd goal in 10 matches now. Nantes have not scored that 2nd goal v the top 14.
  • Back 0-0 pre match - looks a tight under 2.5 goals patterned match and look at Rennes 0-0's at halftime pattern recently.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

19:00 - AZ Alkmaar v RKC Waalwijk - 1.15 AZ Alkmaar

  • Match outcome: AZ Alkmaar have won 16/20 home matches while Waalwijk have lost by two or more goals in 5/10 away matches. There have been +3.5 goals in 6/10 Waalwijk away matches.

AZ - 2nd

  • 2 losses in 3 matches.
  • Lost last home match 1-3 v a resurgent 4th placed Willem II.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored in their last 8 at home.
  • All wins at home v 10th and lower.
  • Beat all bottom 3 away, to nil.

RKC - 18th

  • 4 losses in 5 matches.
  • 7 defeats in 8 away.
  • All defeats v top 6, scoring in 5/6 of those matches.
  • 9/12 away goals scored 1st half.
  • 10 goals conceded last 15 mins away.

Conclusions

  • A recent blip for AZ should end today against the tight type of opponent. RKC have scored in 5/6 losses v the top 6 which is something to note if they score today. AZ have beaten the bottom 3 away from home to nil so that should be replicated at home. AZ have failed to score only twice.

PORTUGAL PRIMEIRA LIGA

19:00 - Benfica v Belenenses - 1.08 Benfica

  • Asian handicap: Benfica have won by two or more goals in 10/13 home matches while Belenenses have lost by two or more goals in 10/15 trips to Big Three teams. Belenenses have lost 13/15 away matches against Big Three teams.
  • All wins bar a loss v Porto for Benfica.
  • They have conceded in only 4 matches.
  • 0-2 win at Belenenses last time these 2 met.
  • All defeats and a home 1-1 v Porto for Belenenses v the top 10.
  • 4-5-4-2 goals scored home by Benfica v 12th and lower. 1.08 odds suggests this scoreline today.
  • You know the drill with sub 1.2 shots. 1-0, 2-0, any unquoted halftime score market if 0-0 20 minutes (Belenenses have had 56% 0-0 at halftime away though).
  • 3-0, 3-1, any other home score is the expected home result.

21:15 - Rio Ave v Familicao - 2.00 Rio Ave

  • Match outcome: Rio Ave have lost 6/9 home matches against top-six teams and they have conceded first in 6/9 such matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 6/9 Famalicao away matches.

Rio Ave - 5th

  • 3 consecutive wins.
  • 3 wins in 4 matches at home.
  • Only 4 over 2.5 goals matches all season.
  • 6 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches at home.
  • Only played one of the top 6 at home, a 0-1 loss at home v 2nd.
  • 1-0 loss to Familicao earlier this season.
  • Scored 2+ goals only once at home v the top 14.

Familicao - 4th

  • Only 2 wins in 9 matches.
  • 0-0-1-1 goals conceded recently.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 3 losses away came v 1st, 2nd and 17th. 3 wins and a draw away v 3rd-13th.
  • 10/12 goals scored away came 2nd half. 67% of goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • I think Familicao are well placed to get a result here. Rio Ave have scored 2+ goals only once v the top 14. Rio Ave do have a strong under 2.5 goals pattern so may keep a lid on Familicao, 2 of their 3 losses away came v the top 2.
  • Strong 2nd half goals patterns for Familicao - back 0-0 pre match to cash out as late as possible?

TURKISH SUPER LIG

17:00 - Basaksehir v Genclerbirligi - 1.42 Basaksehir

  • +3.5 goals: There have been +3.5 goals in 5/9 Genclerbirligi away matches and +2.5 goals in 7/9 Genclerbirligi away matches. Istanbul BB have won 13/17 home matches against bottom-six teams.

Basaksehir - 3rd

  • Only 3 losses, came 1st 2 matches and last match.
  • No defeat in 9 at home.
  • Scored in their last 10 at home.
  • Unbeaten home v 4th and lower and home and away v 12th and lower.
  • 1-2 win last head to head.
  • 9/10 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Genclerbirligi - 13th

  • Only 2 wins in 7 came at home.
  • 3 consecutive away losses.
  • Conceded in each of their last 5 away.
  • 5-2-4-4-2 goals conceded away v the top 10.

Conclusions

  • Gencl look to be very generous away v the top 10 and Basaksehir could pounce on that and score 2+ goals as they do a lot at home. A simple angle.

DUTCH EERSTE DIVISIE

FC Eindhoven v De Graafschap - 1.75 De Graaf

  • 1st half outcome: De Graafschap have won the first half in 6/11 away matches and they have scored first in 8/11 away matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 10/13 FC Eindhoven home matches against top-six teams.

FC Eindhoven - 13th

  • Only 1 win in 6 matches at home.
  • 3 losses in 4 at home ended with a win last home match.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Lost all 4 matches v the top 4 home and away.
  • 4-0 loss v De Graafschap earlier.
  • 73% over 2.5 goals at home.
  • 77% of goals scored and 78% of goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

De Graafschap - 3rd

  • Only 1 loss.
  • 4 score draws and 3 wins last 7 matches.
  • Scored 2+ goals in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored in their last 10 and last 9 away.
  • 10/13 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • FC Einhoven have trouble even scoring v the top 4. De Graafschap have only 1 win all season and are well placed here. They are scoring 2+ goals as well.
  • Very strong 2nd half scoring patterns so lay any 2nd half 0-0.

FC Volendam v Helmond Sport - 1.24 FC Volendam

  • Match outcome: Volendam have won 9/13 home matches against bottom-six teams while Helmond have lost 8/10 away matches against top-six teams. Helmond have lost by two or more goals in 6/8 away matches against top-six teams.

FC Volendam - 4th

  • 11 wins and a draw last 12 matches.
  • 5 wins and a draw last 6 at home.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of their last 9 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 9 matches.
  • 18% 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only home loss v 1st.
  • 1-1 draw in head to head.
  • 10 goals scored at home last 15 minutes of matches.

Helmond Sport - 19th

  • No win in 12.
  • 3 consecutive away defeats.
  • Failed to score last 3 matches.
  • Conceded last 11 away.
  • 18% 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Only away win v bottom of the league.

Conclusions

  • 11 wins and a draw in 12 plays no win in 12.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Volendam should score 2+ goals. Note Volendam are late scorers as well (remember that if a draw or losing late on -75th minute+).

FC Oss v Roda JC - 2.56 FC Oss

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 8/9 FC Oss home matches against bottom-six teams and in 5/9 Roda JC away matches against bottom-six teams. FC Oss have drawn the first half in 6/8 home matches against bottom-six teams.
  • Oss have conceded in their last 11 matches. 18th v 17th.
  • Oss have not played the bottom 4 at home. 2-1 loss v Roda earlier this season.
  • 10 of 14 goals scored at home by Oss came 1st half.
  • Roda have conceded in their last 12 matches and last 6 away.
  • No win for Roda in 11 matches and last 7 away.
  • Roda are unbeaten home and away v 16th and lower.
  • Angles? Welcome to a 2.56 the favourite match. Both sides are struggling. Both sides though remain unbeaten v fellow bottom 4 sides. Not for me.

Almere City v SC Telstar - 2.14 Almere City

  • HT/FT: Almere City have had W/W double results in 12/19 home matches while Telstar have lost by two or more goals in 5/9 trips to middle-third teams. Almere City have won 13/16 home matches.

Almere City - 10th

  • 2 score draws and a loss last 3 matches.
  • 2 wins and a loss last 3 home matches.
  • 4 wins and 2 losses last 6 home matches.
  • Only 2 home losses came v 3rd and 12th. 1-0 loss to Telstar earlier this season.

Telstar - 7th

  • 2 draws, 2 wins, a draw and a win in recent matches.
  • Unbeaten in 6 and in 6 away.
  • Scored and conceded last 9 away.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of their last 3 away.
  • All wins have come v teams below them in the league.
  • 2 losses away v 9th and 13th.

Conclusions

  • Both teams to score is a strong pattern for Telstar away. If Telstar are to win, it tends to come v teams below them in the league.

NEC Nijmegen v Cambuur Leeuwarden - 2.32 Cambuur

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 11/16 NEC home matches and in 10/12 Cambuur away matches against middle-third teams. Cambuur have won 11/12 away matches against middle-third teams.

NEC - 9th

  • 3 losses, 2 wins, 2 draws in recent matches.
  • Only 2 losses. 2-3 recently.
  • Not beaten the top 6 but 4/4 draws v the top 4.
  • 16 of 21 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Cambuur - 1st

  • 3 losses in 5 matches.
  • 4 away wins ended with a loss last match.
  • Scored last 6 away matches.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of their last 5 away matches.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 7th-17th.

Conclusions

  • Favour Cambuur here although NEC are drawing v the top 4. Cambuur are unbeaten home and away v 7th-17th and are scoring 2+ goals away.

Excelsior v NAC Breda - 2.54 NAC Breda

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 10/10 Excelsior home matches and +3.5 goals in 8/10 Excelsior home matches. NAC Breda have drawn the first half in 4/5 away matches against top-half teams.
  • I don't like the odds so just a cursory look at the form.
  • Both teams have scored in Excelsior's last 10 home matches.
  • Excelsior have not beaten a top 6 side home or away. 2-1 loss v NAC the last time these 2 met.
  • 22 of 30 goals scored at home by Excelsior came 2nd half.
  • All away wins for NAC came v 14th and lower. 10/13 goals conceded away by NAC came 2nd half.
  • Angles? It's tough to call. Excelsior have not beaten a top 6 side (NAC are 6th). NAC Breda tend to beat sides 14th and lower away. Excelsior are 8th. Hence.......2.54 the favourite  Note the strong 2nd half scoring for both sides and the strong both teams to score angle for Excelsior.

Den Bosch v Jong AZ Alkmaar - 1.87 Den Bosch

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/10 Den Bosch home matches and in 10/11 Jong AZ away matches. There have been +3.5 goals in 7/10 Den Bosch home matches.

Den Bosch - 12th

  • 2 losses and a draw last 3 matches.
  • Only 3 losses in 17 sees defeats coming rarely despite the above recent pattern.
  • Only 2 home losses, 1 came last match.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 6 at home.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of their last 5 at home.
  • Unbeaten at home v 8th and lower. 2-2 last head to head.
  • 12 of 16 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Jong AZ - 14th

  • Last 5 wins came at home.
  • 6 losses and a draw last 7 away matches.
  • 2-3-1-3-3 goals conceded recently.
  • Only clean sheet first match of the season.
  • No win in 10 away.
  • Scored and conceded last 11 away.
  • 12 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches.
  • Only away win v 18th.
  • 17 of 25 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Den Bosch have been on a good unbeaten run but 2 losses in 3 matches. They are, though, unbeaten at home v 8th and lower, and tend to score 2+ goals. Note Jong AZ have conceded 2+ goals recently too.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market in the expectation for goals.

MVV Maastricht v Jong PSV Eindhoven - 1.85 MVV

  • 1st goal: Maastricht have scored first in 10/10 home matches against bottom-six teams while Jong PSV have lost 11/13 away matches. Maastricht have won 11/14 home matches against bottom-six teams.

MVV - 15th

  • Only 5 wins.
  • Only 1 win in 7 matches.
  • No defeat in 7 at home.
  • 45% 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not played 12th-16th at home.
  • Beat 17th, 18th, 19th at home.
  • 10 of 15 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 9/13 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Jong PSV - 16th

  • Only 5 wins.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 away. Conceded last 11 away.
  • Only 1 away win v 19th.

Conclusions

  • Is Jong PSV's away form so poor that we automatically default to the home side MVV not to lose? BUT only 1 win in 7 matches BUT no defeat in 7 at home as well as beating 17th, 18th and 19th at home.