DRT Daily Research Bulletin, June 30, 2017
19:45 Germany U21 v Spain U21 - 1.98 Spain U21
- This is the Euro U21 Final.
- For me the odds look right. Look at where Germany have stumbled. They lost 1-0 to Italy U21 and drew 2-2 with England U21 who I must be honest should have won, having led 2-1.
- Spain U21 only conceded v Portugal U21 and Italy U21, albeit in 3-1 wins!
- I cannot see Spain U21 losing today and that will be my simplistic angle today. Germany's inability to beat better teams is the clincher for me.
19:45 - Drogheda v Limerick - 1.99 Limerick
- 3-0 Limerick in the sole Irish Premier Division match.
- This is 10th v 7th in the Irish Premier Division.
- Failed to score in 6 of their last 7 matches.
- Only 4 wins.
- Failed to score in their last 3 home matches with 2 of those 0-0.
- Only 1 home defeat v 3rd and lower is a surprise given the recent dire run.
- Drogs have scored 2 goals on 3 occasions at home, 2 times v bottom 2 but whenever they score 2 they are unbeaten.
- Only 3 clean sheets.
- 6 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches.
- 3-3-4 goals conceded last 3 away matches.
- Conceded in their last 11 matches.
- No 0-0.
- 2-2-0-2 goals scored away v teams 6th and lower.
- The managers of these 2 will not be winning Manager of the Month for June.
- For me Limerick look the more capable in their scoring of 2-2-0-2 v teams 6th and lower away from home. Yes Limerick are conceding 3 goals + at an alarming rate away but in Drogheda we have a team who at a stretch can only manage 2 goals.
- Limerick do tend to concede so the absolute ideal for me here is for Drogheda to score first so we can lay them.
- I would lay any late 0-0.
19:45 - Bray v Dundalk - 1.6 Dundalk
- Bray has won the last 2 head to heads with both teams scoring.
- This is 3rd v 2nd in the Irish Premier League and for a top 3 clash, the odds do look a tad short for Dundalk and away from home to boot.
- Only 3 clean sheets.
- Failed to score only 3 times so a natural both teams to score team it would seem.
- That has occured 15 times this season.
- 2-1-2-2-2 conceded by Bray in their last 5 home matches.
- Scored and conceded last 5 at home.
- No 0-0 at home.
- Yet to meet the top 2 at home but beat 3rd and 4th at home 4-2 and 3-2.
- Only 1 draw all season was a 0-0.
- 7 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Failed to score only twice.
- 4 clean sheets in their last 6 away matches.
- No draw in 9 away.
- Scored in each of their last 9 away.
- 100% over 1.5 goals away.
- No 0-0 away.
- Lost all 3 away v top 5 teams, scoring and conceding in each.
- Dundalk's odds look too short for me. I would lay Dundalk if Dundalk scored first in the search for value.
- Both teams to score has a strong chance here today.
- I could see tradable scorelines 2-1; 1-2; 2-2.
- We should not expect a 0-0 today and should expect at least 2 goals in total.
19:45 - St Patricks v Galway Utd - 2.04 St Pats
- 1-1 the last time these 2 met.
- This is 11th v 12th (the bottom 2) in the Irish Premier Division.
- Only 3 wins all season.
- No 0-0.
- 100% over 1.5 goals all season.
- Unbeaten at home v 9th and 10th augurs well for today.
- 5 defeats in their last 6 matches. both teams scored in 4 of their last 5 matches.
- Only 1 clean sheet.
- Have conceded either 2 or 1 goal away (bar Cork where they conceded 4) in all away matches.
- No away 0-0.
- All score draws away v 6th and lower.
- 1-1 or 2-2 might appeal today from a correct score trading perspective if Galway continue their score draws away v 6th and lower.
- I would lay Galway if Galway scored first given they tend to concede 1 or 2 goals away.
Heather Watson v Caroline Wozniacki - 1.36 Caroline
- 111 v 11th. All the 1's.
- In 2016 in Hong Kong, Wozza won in straight sets.
- 17th, 16th and 4th ranked players have been beaten by Guernsey's Finest, Heather. She really excels when she has the British Crowd with her.
- Wozniacki must be delighted She has beaten 14th and 5th to get here. Although Eastbourne have been picking on Simona Halep, making her play 2 matches a day.
- I cannot see Heather win 2-0 today and my ideal trading scenario would be a Watson first set win.
- I would speculatively lay the first set winner only in the expectation of a typical 2nd set fight back.
Novak Djokovic v Daniil Medvedev - 1.16 Novak
- The enigma that is old Donkey Cheese himself, Novak Djokovic.
- 2nd v 63rd.
- Novak won the 2017 Davis Cup meeting after Daniil retired.
- 112th and 44th are the rankings Novak has faced. We did lay him at 1.03 after winning the first set yesterday and Donald delivered with a tie breaker 2nd set and a high for Novak of 1.25. Nice trading!
- Daniil deserves his place here, beating Sam Querrey who (remember?) beat Novak last year at Wimbledon. He also beat good yardstick Steve Johnson.
- Novak has not been backable for me for some time now. I would far prefer he wins the first set. Again, as above, I would lay the first set winner. I'll get ultra short odds for Novak and with Daniil winning the first set, we would expect Novak to fight 2nd set.
Johanna Konta v Karolina Pliskova - 1.81 Pliskova
- 7th v 3rd.
- This is the toughest Konta match so far in Eastbourne.
- It has been all Pliskova in head to heads...until the last head to head in Beijing which Konta won on hard in 3 sets.
- The last 5 head to heads have been 3 setters.
- I am really confused. Excuse me. When did Konta play Kerber? I saw her playing Ostapenko! This form cannot be taken on trust given Kerber may not have been ready for 2 matches in one day (but still it is a level playing field).
- I would lay the first set winner today. It seems obvious given the head to heads and Pliskova's 3 setter last match v 9th in the world.
Richard Gasquet v Gael Monfils - 1.89 Gasquet
- This is Gasquet v Monfils.....Now it's personal!! I say that because these 2 keep meeting each other, rather like a Rocky sequel.
- 23rd v 17th.
- In France, Gasquet retired and after that Gasquet won in 3 sets in Halle. In Marseille this year on hard, it was another 3 setter.
- Gasquet has beaten 2 big servers in Kevin Anderson and John Isner in straight sets and without the aid of a tie breaker. He really struggled v Tiafoe first round but it seems his return game has improved markedly if he can break these 2 big servers.
- Monfils has beaten Norrie (as expected) and Tomic (first set was a tie breaker).
- I would be keen to lay Monfils if Monfils wins the first set. Gasquet seems to have improved markedly.
- Is this another 3 setter in waiting?
Wimbledon qualifiers - no research here just note the shorties. Bolelli already 1-4 up so missed that. Ons Jabeur another of interest and Van Uytanck.
Mariana Duque-MariÑo v Irina Falconi - 1.87 Marino
Marina Erakovic v Destanee Aiava - 1.72 Erakovic
Aleksandra Krunic v Petra Martic - 1.76 Krunic
Polona Hercog v Antonia Lottner - 1.8 Lottner
Pedro Sousa v Simone Bolelli - 1.14 Bolelli
Alison Van Uytvanck v Myrtille Georges - 1.12 Van
Kristie Ahn v Aryna Sabalenka - 1.59 Ahn
Anna Blinkova v Jana Fett - 1.87 Anna
Anastasia Potapova v Elizaveta Kulichkova - 1.51 Eliz
Ons Jabeur v Asia Muhammad - 1.42 Ons