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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, December 30, 2022

Kick-offs are too late for me bar a couple of Spanish Liga matches. I will do a review/preview video at DRT Facebook and post the stats spreadsheet again. I will see you on Telegram if there is an early angle.

English Premier League

19:45 - West Ham v Brentford - 1.95 West Ham

West Ham - 16th

  • London derby.
  • 5 losses in 6. Comeback loss v Arsenal saw the Hamsters score first.
  • 2 consecutive home defeats conceding 2 goals at least.
  • No draw in 6 and in 5 at home.
  • Conceded last 4 and last 2 at home.
  • Sole win home and away v the top 11 came v London opponents Fulham at home.
  • In the 5 London derbies v top 11, both teams to score has come in all.

Brentford - 10th

  • 3 score draws in 4 matches.
  • Beat Man City 1-2 last away match.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 matches.
  • 2+ goals scored last 3 matches.
  • 3 draws away v 13th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Another London derby v the top 11 for West Ham and we tend to see both teams score. So watch out for that. Brentford come into this with 2 goals scored and an away win v Man City to buoy them today.
  • 2 consecutive home defeats West Ham - lay any late Brentford lead in the hope West Ham look to avoid that.

20:00 - Liverpool v Leicester - 1.36 Liverpool

Liverpool - 6th

  • 1-3 win v Villa on come back match.
  • 3 consecutive wins with both teams scoring.
  • Win, Win, Loss, Win at home recently.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 matches.
  • Scored last 8 at home.
  • 2+ goals scored last 3 matches.
  • Only 1 home loss came v Leeds.
  • 6/8 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Leicester - 13th

  • 4 wins in 6 matches.
  • 3 consecutive away wins v Wolves, Everton and West Ham.
  • No draw in 6 and in 8 away.
  • 3 consecutive away clean sheets.
  • 2+ goals scored last 3 away.
  • All defeats home and away v the top 8.

Conclusions

  • Leicester's poor start to the season was down to their losses v the top 8. More expected today or will a recent run of 3 consecutive away wins to nil help the Foxes away at Liverpool?
  • Liverpool are conceding so we might see both teams score with Leicester not win. A strong Leicester performance will not surprise but that top 8 losing sequence is strongly embedded.

English Championship

19:45 - Birmingham v Hull - 2.05 Birmingham

Birmingham - 15th

  • Only 3 wins in 10, winning in singles. Last won 2 consecutive matches in October.
  • Only 1 loss in 8 matches at home.
  • Scored and conceded last 3 at home.
  • 0-2 win last head-to-head.
  • v 16th and lower at home, 2-2, 3-0, 0-1, 2-1 so can score 2 goals.
  • 11/16 goals scored at home came 1st half.
  • 9/12 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Hull City - 21st

  • 3 consecutive draws.
  • Win, Win, Draw, Win, Draw away - the draws were 0-0.
  • No defeat in 5 away.
  • v 14th and lower away, losses v 14th, 16th and 24th with wins v 19th, 20th, 22nd - scored and conceded in all bar 2 v 18th and lower.
  • 6 goals scored away last 15 mins.

Conclusions

  • Both teams to score a strong pattern when Hull play 14th and lower away. With losses v 14th and 16th away for Hull, I slightly favour Brum here who have scored 2 goals on 3 occasions at home v 16th and lower.

19:45 - Norwich v Reading - 1.73 Norwich

Norwich - 5th

  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • 1-1 last head-to-head.
  • 4 losses and 2 wins (v 6th and 12th) at home v the top 13.
  • 6 goals conceded at home last 15 mins.

Reading - 8th

  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • No draw in 6.
  • 2+ goals scored last 2 and last 2 away.
  • 4 losses and a 1-0 win away v the top 7.

Conclusions

  • Top 10 clash but Reading away tend to lose against the top 7. Norwich have a poor run of 3 losses in 4 that this opponent might help them end.

19:45 - Stoke v Burnley - 2.25 Burnley

Stoke - 17th

  • Draw, Win, Draw latest.
  • 2+ goals scored last 3 and last 2 at home.
  • 1-1 last head-to-head. 3-1 beating of 2nd at home could see Stoke competitive?

Burnley - 1st

  • 8 wins and a loss last 9 matches.
  • Scored last 21 and last 9 away.
  • 2+ goals scored last 7 and last 3 away.
  • Not conceded a 2nd goal away v 5th and lower.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 6th and lower.

Conclusions

  • 2.25 looks generous for a Burnley for whom a draw is worst-case scenario for me. Unbeaten v 6th and lower. The market is hesitant as it was 1-1 last head-to-head and Stoke are unbeaten in wins v 2nd and 3rd.

19:45 - Swansea v Watford - 2.62 Swansea

  • Leave to in-play stats.

English League 1

19:45 - Derby v Cambridge - 1.53 Derby

Derby - 6th

  • 6 draws last 9 unbeaten matches.
  • 4 clean sheets last 5 matches.
  • No defeat in 9 and in 4 at home.
  • 2 consecutive home clean sheets.
  • Only played one of 16th and lower at home.
  • 0-2 win last head-to-head.
  • 7/10 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Cambridge - 19th

  • Only 3 wins in 15, did win last match, at home v Shrewsbury.
  • No draw in 7 away.
  • Conceded last 10 away.
  • Have failed to score v the top 6 sides they have played.

Conclusions

  • Cambridge have conceded last 10 away so note that if 0-0 coming late into the match.
  • I would lay any late draw given Derby are collecting far too many recently. Cambridge have failed to score v all top 6, even with home advantage so if scoring first, that would surprise and a 2nd consecutive goal will surprise even more.

19:45 - Lincoln City v Bolton - 2.30 Bolton

  • In-play stats only.

English League 2

19:45 - Newport v Leyton Orient - 2.40 Leyton Orient

  • In-play stats only.

19:45 - Stevenage v Crawley - 1.60 Stevenage

Stevenage - 2nd

  • Only 3 defeats all season.
  • 3 draws in 4 matches. 2 consecutive 0-0 draws.
  • No defeat in 7 and in 3 at home.
  • 3 consecutive home clean sheets.
  • 4/4 1-0 home wins v 18th and lower.
  • 7 goals scored at home last 15 mins.

Crawley - 20th

  • Only 2 wins in 8 came at home.
  • 2 consecutive defeats came at home.
  • No win in 10 away, conceding last 8 away.
  • Have lost at home v the top 3.

Conclusions

  • The market looks right here. Stevenage are keeping clean sheets, are unbeaten in 7 and have 4/4 wins at home v 18th and lower. Their concern will be the 1-0 aspect of those wins - it requires, quite obviously, a clean sheet! Crawley though have lost to the top 3 WITH home advantage so, away...?

Spanish La Liga Primera

  • A tough old La Liga coupon today, so says the market. I will do some cursory research, not indepth given the odds.

16:00 - Getafe v Mallorca - 2.70 Getafe

  • Getafe - only 3 wins; only 1 loss in 6 came last match; only 1 home win.
  • No win in 4 at home; conceded 2 goals at home v 4th, 5th, and 12th at home and 10th, 13th away.
  • 15th v 11th.
  • Mallorca - 3 wins in 4 matches includes 2 big wins to nil v Villareal and Atletico Madrid.
  • Not played 12th - 19th away.
  • Angles? Mallorca will rue that World Cup break after 2 strong wins v solid yardsticks. No wonder the market cannot discount Mallorca. Getafe have only 3 wins and tend to concede 2 goals v teams home and away around Mallorca's position in the league. My heart is with the Mallorcans but respect to the market and the big gap between last match and this.

18:15 - Cadiz v Almeria - 2.30 Cadiz

  • Another tough return for the Spanish.
  • Cadiz - only 2 wins all season; last home match a 3-2 win v Atletico Madrid; only played 3 of 6th and lower at home, all 3 draws; 11/14 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • Almeria - 4 consecutive home wins and 6 consecutive away defeats; only played one of 13th and lower away - a 1-1 draw v bottom; 5/5 wins at home v 13th and lower.
  • Angles - gaps in form cloud this match but for me Almeria have more wins in the book, albeit at home, v 13th and lower to be favoured here. remember that Cadiz generally have struggled to score this season. Remember too Cadiz's 2nd half concessions at home.

18:15 - Celta Vigo v Sevilla - 2.37 Celta Vigo

  • Celta Vigo - only 1 win in 10 matches; scored last 7 at home; draw, draw, win at home v 15th and lower.
  • Sevilla - only 2 wins; 3 losses in 4 matches; scored last 7 away; only played one match v 15th and lower, a 2-3 away win v 16th - this is 17th v 18th.
  • Angles - another puzzler and a Sevilla having an unexpectedly poor season. They are far better than we have seen and really should cope far better with Cadiz than a 2.37 quote suggests.

20:30 - Valladolid v Real Madrid - 1.50 Real Madrid

Valladolid - 13th

  • 3 consecutive home wins.
  • Not played top 3 at home. Did beat 4th 1-0.
  • 5/6 home goals scored came 2nd half.

Real Madrid - 2nd

  • Only 1 defeat came last away match, 3-2 v Vallecano.
  • Scored last 14 and last 7 away.
  • All away wins v 14th and lower and play 13th today.

Conclusions

  • Check team news for Real Madrid. Any major World Cup absentees? If not, I do not expect a 2nd consecutive away loss. Real Madrid have embedded form - all wins away v 14th and lower and play 13th today.