Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Yet again, the in-play stats served us very well in the Europa League. I did pop onto DRT Facebook at 18:00 (midnight here) and made some good calls. PAOK match was very interesting and Zorya were a credit to themselves last night against the odds, fighting to the death against a better Espanyol. Ferencvaros came from 0-1 to score the 2 goals for a 2-1 (which they cocked up later on!). Antwerp scored first despite a red card. Backable at 6.00 and layable at evens or shorter (they were red carded again and blew their chances).
On to today and we see a return of the Irish Premier Division and Dutch Eerste Divisie, Friday stalwarts as well as a smattering of Elite European league matches.
I continue to include some stats from my new stats source, the footballformlabs. I am trialling it in the hope that I can add more stats resources and those important angles for you. As you can see, early season, the software does not have my ability to distinguish that a side bottom 6 after 2 matches is not necessarily a bottom 6 side!! I cannot vouch for its effectiveness but would suggest that, when we have 9/10 matches under our belts, the software will work better. Your feedback welcomed.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

19:45 - Cardiff v Fulham - 2.68 Fulham

  • New stats website key stat - 1st goal: Middle-third relegated teams have scored first in 60% of home matches against relegated teams since 2014-15 and middle-third relegated teams have won 53% of home matches against relegated teams since 2014-15. Top-six relegated teams have had +2.5 goals in 50% of away matches against relegated teams since 2014-15.
  • 5 matches into the season and when we get to about 9/10 matches, form lines will be worthwhile.
  • 2 consecutive 2-1 wins for Cardiff at home, noticeably beating recent premier league side Huddersfield.
  • Cardiff's 2 losses came away.
  • Fulham have 3 wins sandwiched between 2 defeats. They did try to come from behind v Forest at home but bottomed out at 1-2 loss.
  • 1-0 loss and 1-2 win v Huddersfield.
  • The market suggests that this is too tough to call. Is 2-1/1-2 too simplistic an angle based on both teams' 2-1 win v Huddersfield and Cardiff's 2 2-1 wins at home

FRENCH LIGUE 1

19:45 - Metz v PSG - 1.43 PSG

  • These 2 last met March 2018 so Metz are newly promoted.
  • New stats website key stat - Match outcome: Paris St-G have won 10/14 away matches against promoted teams and they have won by two or more goals in 5/10 such matches. Middle-third promoted teams have had -2.5 goals in 51% of home matches against top-six teams since 2014-15.
  • My research now - One away match this season, a 2-1 loss v Rennes.
  • 1-1 draw, 3-0 win v Monaco and 3-0 loss to Angers. Wheels fell off for Metz last match.
  • PSG expected to win here. Simplistic. Tuchel new manager at PSG from Dortmund.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

Mgladbach v Leipzig - 2.1 Leipzig

  • New stats website key stat - 1st goal: B. M'gladbach have conceded first in 6/8 home matches against top-six teams while RB Leipzig have scored first in 8/10 away matches. B. M'gladbach have lost 6/8 home matches against top-six teams.
  • Match Indicators:
  • 1 - Home fail to score v Top Half (3.16); 2 - Home Lose v Top 6 (2.99); 3 - Home 2nd half Lose v Top 6 (2.86).
  • 1 - HT home score 0-1 v All (3.24); 2 - Equal goals in both halves v Top 6 (3.12); 3 - Home HT Lose v All (3.12).
  • My research - only 5 losses last 20 home matches Mgladbach.
  • 5th v 3rd last season.
  • We remember Mgladbach from last season as a side strong at home BUT....Loss, Loss, Loss, Win, Loss at home v the top 5. This is the sticking point.
  • 1-2 loss and 2-0 loss v Leipzig last season.
  • Leipzig were more vulnerable away but loss loss v top 2, win, win v 4th and 5th away, then loss away v 6th.
  • Mgladbach were stuck v the best at home last season. That is what I'll take into this match, particularly if Mgladbach score first. 7 losses in total for Mgladbach v top 6!
  • Vulnerable home team unless they have improved.
  • 2 wins this season for Leipzig.0-0 and 1-3 win Mgladbach. Keeping it tight.

ITALIAN SERIA A

19:45 - Bologna v SPAL - 1.91 Bologna

  • 0-1 SPAL and 1-1 last 2 head to heads.
  • 1-1 draw for Bologna  and 2-3 loss v Atalanta for SPAL this season.
  • v 9th and lower last season, Bologna lost only 2 home matches, one was v SPAL 0-1.
  • SPAL were poor away v the top 15 with only 2 wins, one coming v Bologna.
  • Any improvements SPAL will make to this away form? If not, they are least likely to win.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

19:00 - Emmen v PEC Zwolle - 2.5 Emmen

  • 0-1 Zwolle and 3-0 Zwolle last 2 head to heads.
  • 2.5 though suggests it's too tough to call.
  • Both sides have 3 losses this season.0-1 and 2-0 (win) at home for Emmen.
  • 3-1 and 3-0 away for PEC this season losses.
  • PEC have not kept a clean sheet this season. All over 2.5 goals for PEC this season.

SPANISH LA LIGA

19:00 - Sevilla v Celta Vigo - 1.56 Sevilla

  • Match outcome: Sevilla have won 11/15 home matches against middle-third teams while Celta Vigo have lost 9/10 away matches against top-six teams. Celta Vigo have had L/L double results in 7/10 away matches against top-six teams.
  • Match indicators:
  • 1 - Home Draw/Winv Middle Third (3.45); 2 - Home Win by 2+v Middle Third (3.28); 3 - Home Win by 2+v All (2.9).
  • 1 - Home Win by 2+v All (2.95); 2 - Home HT Winv All (2.71); 3 - Home Win/Winv Middle Third (2.6).
  • My research - 2-1 Sevilla and 1-0 Celta last season.
  • First home match for Sevilla. 2 away wins without conceding is a great start.
  • 1-3 loss v Real Madrid and 1-0 win at home v Valencia for Celta.
  • Ben Yedder the most significant absence for Sevilla up front.
  • Sevilla are looking good defensively albeit a small sample of matches away. Celta may be kept to a single goal?

21:00 - Atl Bilbao v Real Sociedad - 2.18 Atl Bilbao

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 10/10 Ath. Bilbao home matches against top-six teams and they have drawn the first half in 12/20 home matches. Real Sociedad have lost 8/10 away matches against top-six teams. (Again Sociedad are top 6 after 2 matches - erroneous data from my new stats website). Sociedad 9th last season, Bilbao 8th.
  • Only 1 loss in 20 matches, so my new stats source says, for Bilbao v top half sides outside the top 2. Only 3 wins in 10 for Sociedad away v top half, albeit 2 wins in 3.
  • In those 20 matches for Bilbao, there was only one occasion a 0-0 at halftime produced a 0-0 at fulltime.
  • My research - 1-3 and 2-1 Sociedad in head to heads last season.
  • Both sides similar starts. Win and a draw. Same scorelines. 1-0 and 1-1. 3 0-0's at halftime, none at fulltime. So a ready neutral angle?

BELGIAN JULIPER LEAGUE

19:30 - Mechelen v Mouscron - 1.77 Mechelen

  • These 2 last met in January 2018.
  • +2.5 goals: Top-six promoted teams have had +2.5 goals in 62% of home matches against top-six teams since 2014-15. There have been +2.5 goals in 14/20 Mouscron-P away matches. Mouscron-P have lost 12/20 away matches.
  • Solid start for both sides this season. Only 1 loss, 3 wins and a draw both.
  • 2 3-1 home wins for Mechelen.
  • 0-1 win and 4-1 loss for Mouscron away (loss v Standard Liege).
  • Both sides had a 0-0 v Anderlecht.
  • Only a handful of matches. Similar form in that small sample. Market with the home side here.

DANISH SUPERLIGA

18:00 - OB v Sonder - 1.94 OB

  • 1st goal: Odense have scored first in 10/13 home matches while SonderjyskE have lost 11/16 away matches against top-half teams. Odense have won 6/9 home matches against top-half teams.
  • 7 matches into the season.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 for OB. OB did fail to score last 2 matches (away).
  • 2-3 loss and 2 wins at home for OB. Look good enough at home. That 2-3 was v FC Copenhagen.
  • No win in 4 for Sonder. Failed to score in 2 of their last 3 matches.
  • 0-3 and 3-3 last 2 aways for Sonder. Full of goals.
  • OB have only lost to the current top 5 (after 7 matches so that may not be the season-end top 5) but it is a noticeable pattern. Sonder are currently 7th.
  • Sonder are unbeaten away.
  • Nothing to really get our teeth into here . But if OB keep collecting clean sheets, should Sonder score first, will Sonder really follow up with a 2nd goal (Noting they scored 6 in 2 aways!!)?

NORWEGIAN ELITESERIEN

18:00 - Odd v Bodo/Glimt - 2.12 Odd

Odd (3rd)

  • Top 3 clash so an argument can be made for both sides.
  • 3 consecutive score draws.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • No defeat 10 at home.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 at home and scored in all home.
  • Noticeably, score draws at home v top 4 and yet to beat the top 4.

Bodo/Glimt (1st)

  • 5 wins and a draw last 6 matches.
  • Scored and conceded 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 away.
  • Conceded last 9 away.
  • Not played top 5 away.

Conclusions

  • Top 3 clash and these can be tricky. A gap in form for Bodo is a worry too. Nothing to gauge away v top 5.
  • Strong both teams to score angle may be something to use but the concern is that these 2 are used to going on long unbeaten recent runs.
  • New stats source - A turning of the tide in head to heads. Bodo 5 consecutive losses but recently 2 wins, a draw and a loss last 4 head to heads.
  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 11/13 Odd Grenland home matches against top-six teams while Bodo/Glimt have drawn the first half in 10/18 away matches. Bodo/Glimt have conceded first in 3/6 away matches against top-six teams.
  • Match indicators:
  • 1 - Home Lose/Lose v Top 6 (2.46); 2 - Home HT Lose v All (2.45); 3 - Home HT Lose v Top 6 (2.28).
  • 1 - Most match goals 2nd half v All (2.86); 2 - HT score 0-0 v Top 6 (2.17); 3 - Home clean sheet v Top 6 (2.14).

IRISH PREMIER DIVISION

19:45 - Cork v Sligo - 1.96 Cork

Cork (7th)

  • 1st goal: Cork City have scored first in 12/20 home matches against middle-third teams while Sligo R. have lost 6/9 away matches against middle-third teams. Sligo R. have conceded first in 6/9 away matches against middle-third teams.
  • Only 1 win in 9 matches came last match.
  • 0-1-0-1-0 goals scored at home recently.
  • Only 2 over 2.5 goals matches since 19th April.
  • No win in 5 at home.
  • 0-0, 1-2 win and 1-1 last 3 head to heads v Sligo this season.
  • 2 goals scored only twice at home this season.

Sligo (6th)

  • Only 1 win in 10 matches.
  • 4 losses in 5 away.
  • No win in 5 away.
  • 16 of 24 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
  • Only 1 win v top 8 away.

Conclusions

  • Oh dear, these 2 are in poor nick recently. On head to heads, Cork are favoured.
  • Given the strong under 2.5 goals trend for Cork, I could argue for a back of 0-0 pre-match and hope the goal action comes 2nd half. 0-1-0-1-0 goals scored at home recently by Cork.

19:45 - Waterford v Derry - 1.84 Derry

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 7/9 Waterford Utd home matches against top-half teams and +3.5 goals in 6/10 Derry City away matches. Derry City have drawn the first half in 5/8 away matches against bottom-half teams.

Waterford (8th)

  • Only 1 win in 8 matches came v strugglers UCD. Poor stuff.
  • 4 consecutive home losses.
  • 12 of 17 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • 2-2, 3-2 loss and 2-0 loss v Derry this season. Conceding 2 goals regularly. Same today? Not beaten a top 4 side home or away.

Derry (4th)

  • Only 3 defeats since 3rd May.
  • 3 wins in 5 matches.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime away, 3 at fulltime.
  • 12 of 16 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
  • Only 3 away losses came v 2nd, 5th and 9th, 2 were 1-0 losses.

Conclusions

  • Derry sees a lot of 0-0's at halftime but if seeing that today, I'd expect goals. Strong 2nd half conceding for both teams. Waterford keep conceding 2 goals v Derry this season so note that if the home side are leading.

20:00 - Finn Harps v St Pats - 1.95 St Pats

Finn Harps (9th)

  • 4 1-0 results, 3 consecutive 1-0 wins.
  • 4 consecutive home clean sheets.
  • 3 wins in 4 at home.
  • 5 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • 0-2 loss, 0-0 and 1-0 loss v St Pats already this season.

St Pats (5th)

  • 2 losses then 2 wins last 4 matches.
  • 3 wins in 4 away.
  • Only 2 defeats v 6th and lower home or away came v Waterford only.

Conclusions

  • This match is perfectly suited to laying Finn Harps if they score first but covering the 1-0 insurance. They seem incapable of scoring a 2nd goal but capable of initiating a 1-0 win but then have not beaten St Pats this season.
  • For those not attending live chat webinars (naughty!), when I take out insurance I do this.
  • a) at 1-0, lay over 1.5 goals to win the stake you want to use in laying the team 1-0 up (usually £40 for me)
  • b) either back the team 1-0 down in their +1 market for the potential winnings laying over 1.5 goals or
  • c) back the team 1-0 down in the match odds market with potential winnings from over 1.5 goals lay. Attending a live chat webinar has the distinct advantage of me showing you this live without trying to explain via words.
  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 5/7 Finn Harps home matches against middle-third teams and in 8/9 St Patrick's away matches against bottom-half teams. St Patrick's have won 7/11 away matches against bottom-half teams.

20:00 - Shamrock v Bohemians - 1.68 Shamrock

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 7/9 Shamrock R home matches against top-half teams and in 14/17 Bohemians away matches. Bohemians have conceded first in 12/18 away matches against top-half teams.

Shamrock (2nd)

  • 5 wins and 2 draws last 7 matches.
  • 2+ goals scored last 3 matches.
  • Not beaten the top 3. 3/3 losses v Bohemians, 2 were 1-0.

Bohemians (3rd)

  • Only 2 wins in 7 at home.
  • 2 losses and 2 draws last 4 away scoring 0-0-1-0 goals.
  • v the top 5, only lost to 1st.

Conclusions

  • Bohemians like meeting Shamrock. That is clear. But Shamrock are favourites here. Is this because of recent Bohs form? 0-0-1-0 goals scored away recently.
  • On ultra recent form, Shamrock could score 2 goals but on seasonal form, Bohs may simply be a bogey team. If Bohs lead 0-1, I would lay them and cover the 0-1 as they have 2 of those wins v Shamrock.
  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 7/9 Shamrock R home matches against top-half teams and in 14/17 Bohemians away matches. Bohemians have conceded first in 12/18 away matches against top-half teams.
  • Match indicators:
  • 1 - Most match goals 1st half v All (1.4); 2 - Home score last v All (1.36); 3 - Home HT Win v All (1.17).
  • 1 - Under 2.5 match goals v All (1.66); 2 - Under 1.5 match goals v All (1.66); 3 - Home HT Draw v All (1.63).

SWEDISH ALLSVENSKAN

18:00 - Helsingborgs v Ostersunds - 2.12 Helsingborgs

Helsingborgs

  • 5 losses and a draw last 6 matches.
  • 3 losses last 4 at home.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • 2+ goals conceded last 3  and last 2 at home.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 3-0 loss v Ostersunds earlier this season.
  • Not played 10th/11th at home but unbeaten v 10th and lower at home.
  • 10 of 15 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Osterunds (10th)

  • 4 losses and 2 draws last 6 matches.
  • No win in 6 and in 7 away.
  • Conceded last 7 away.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Unbeaten away v 11th and lower, albeit 3 1-1 draws and a 0-1 win.

Conclusions

  • 1st half outcome: Helsingborg have drawn the first half in 3/5 home matches against bottom-half teams while there have been -2.5 goals in 7/8 Ostersunds away matches against bottom-six teams. Ostersunds have conceded first in 10/20 away matches.
  • That's what the stats software says. I say lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. 80% both sides of seeing at least a goal. Strong first half concessions. This is tempered though by Ostersunds tight 1-1 or 0-1 wins v teams below them away. And on that basis I cannot justify Helsingborgs as favourites.

TURKISH SUPER LIG

18:30 - Kayserispor v Galatasary - 1.77 Galatasary

  • Galatasary have scored 3 goals at least in the last 4 head to heads.
  • 0-1 loss and 1-1 for Kayserispor so far. 2-0 loss and 1-1 draw Galatasary. Poor showing from a side expected to vye for the title.
  • Will gala consent to score 3 goals at least as per head to heads? If so, then it's a straightforward angle isn't it, and the adventurous amongst you would lean towards a goal before halftime as having a reasonable chance?

DUTCH EERSTE DIVISIE

19:00 kick-off

Excelsior v Helmond Sport - 1.38 Excelsior

  • Match outcome: Top-six relegated teams have won 70% of home matches against bottom-six teams since 2014-15 while Helmond have lost by two or more goals in 6/8 trips to relegated teams. Helmond have lost the first half in 7/8 away matches against relegated teams.
  • No head to heads since 2016.
  • 2 wins and a loss for Excelsior this season, scoring 2 goals in those wins.
  • 2 1-1's and a loss for Helmond, scoring and conceding.
  • Match indicators:
  • 1 - Home Winv All (3.64); 2 - Home Win by 2+v All (3.51); 3 - Home Win/Winv Bottom 6 (3.28).
  • 1 - Home score lastv All (3.82); 2 - Home Winv All (3.58); 3 - Home 2nd half Winv All (3.49).
  • Little to work with bar the match odds. Newly relegated Excelsior may find life easier in this lesser league?

Cambuur Leeuwarden v Den Bosch - 1.65 Cambuur

  • Match outcome: Cambuur have won 11/17 home matches against bottom-six teams while Den Bosch have lost 11/20 away matches against middle-third teams. Den Bosch have conceded first in 11/20 away matches against middle-third teams. (Again erroneous - bottom 6 only after 3 matches, top 6 last season).
  • 2 losses for Cambuur came away and the win came at home. 2 score draws and a loss for Den Bosch this season.
  • 1-1 and 2-0 Cambuur in head to heads.
  • Little to work with bar the market and the head to heads which suggests Cambuur are favoured.

FC Oss v De Graafschap - 2.08 Graaf

  • Newly relegated De Graafschap worth monitoring this season in case they find the Eerste Divisie easier.
  • No head to heads to work from therefore.
  • A win and 2 losses for Oss this season. 3 2-1 results.
  • 3/3 wins for De Graaf without conceding. Suggests if Oss score, they may not score a 2nd? What do you think?
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 10/12 FC Oss home matches against relegated teams. Top-six relegated teams have had +2.5 goals in 59% of away matches against middle-third teams since 2014-15. Top-six relegated teams have scored first in 51% of away matches against middle-third teams since 2014-15.

Jong AZ Alkmaar v FC Dordrecht - 1.85 Jong AZ

  • 1-1 and 0-1 Dordrecht in last season's head to heads.
  • 3/3 losses for Dordrecht this season, conceding 12 goals. OUCH! Dordrecht did score in the last 2 matches.
  • 0-0, 1-2 loss and 1-2 win for Jong AZ this season.
  • A very small sample of matches but Dordrecht defence looks wobbly (albeit head to heads suggest a very tight encounter). Where do you sit?

Jong Ajax Amsterdam v Almere City - 1.57 Jong Ajax

  • 2-3 Jong Ajax and 8-0 Jong Ajax last 2 head to heads. Almere fans hide behind the couch this evening?
  • 2-1 loss, 3-3 draw v NEC and 2-5 win v Dordrecht for Jong Ajax, they are scoring.
  • No 0-0 at halftime yet for Jong Ajax and scored and conceded in all matches.
  • 2 1-1 draws away for Almere suggests to us if Almere score, they may not pull off the win. No 0-0 at halftime yet for Almere too.
  • Bit of a risk but lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market (sample of 3 matches only). Almere look vulnerable if leading.

NEC Nijmegen v SC Telstar - 1.93 NEC

  • 1st half outcome: NEC have won the first half in 7/8 home matches against top-six teams while Telstar have conceded first in 8/12 away matches. NEC have had W/W double results in 5/8 home matches against top-six teams.
  • 0-3 NEC and 1-1 v Telstar last season.
  • Loss, Draw, Win NEC this season scoring 1-3-2 goals. No 0-0 at halftime and both teams have scored in the 3 matches to date.
  • 0-0, 0-1 and 3-0 Telstar. Solid defensively and making it pay.2 0-0's at halftime.
  • Very little to get into here.

Jong FC Utrecht v Jong PSV Eindhoven - 2.04 Jong PSV

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 9/12 Jong Utrecht home matches and in 17/20 Jong PSV away matches. There have been +3.5 goals in 5/8 Jong Utrecht home matches against bottom-six teams.
  • 3-2 Utrecht and 3-1 PSV last season. Home side won.
  • Both sides have suffered 2 losses in their 3 matches. Sole home win for Jong FC Utrecht was a 2-1 win.3-2 away for Jong PSV in their solitary away match.
  • Jong PSV yet to win this season.

FC Eindhoven v Go Ahead Eagles - 2.04 FC Eindhoven

  • Asian handicap: G.A. Eagles have lost by two or more goals in 5/9 away matches against top-six teams and they have lost 7/11 such matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 6/9 FC Eindhoven home matches against top-six teams.
  • 1-2 Go Ahead Eagles and 0-1 Eindhoven last 2 head to heads.
  • 2 wins and a 1-1 for FC Eindhoven scoring and conceding.
  • 2 solid 3/4 goal wins for Go Ahead came at home. 5-0 loss away.
  • Logically, we would not expect a 0-0 here! 5-5-4 goals in total for Go Ahead Eagles.

FC Volendam v NAC Breda - 2.32 Volendam

  • No head to heads since 2017.
  • 1st goal: Volendam have conceded first in 7/9 home matches against relegated teams while top-six relegated teams have scored first in 51% of away matches against middle-third teams since 2014-15. Top-six relegated teams have had +2.5 goals in 59% of away matches against middle-third teams since 2014-15.
  • Breda 3/3 so far this season, scoring 2-5-1 goals. Draw, Win, Loss Volendam.
  • Favour the newly relegated side.?