Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

DRT Daily Research Bulletin, June 2, 2017

I have to go out early today but once back will be on Twitter I hope for the afternoon tennis. Some big names. See you around 1pm or earlier @drtclub.

19:30 - Dundalk v Cork City - 2.68 Dundalk

  • 2-1 Cork in the last head to head.
  • This is 2nd v 1st in the Irish Premier Division. The market expects a tight match.

Dundalk 100% stats

  • No over 4.5 goals matches.
  • Unbeaten at home v 4th and lower.

Dundalk other stats

  • Only one draw was a 0-0.
  • Failed to score only in that match.
  • 4 consecutive clean sheets.
  • Lost at home to 2nd and away v 1st.

Cork City 100% stats

  • Unbeaten , all wins bar a 1-1 draw.
  • Scored in all matches.
  • All wins home and away v top 10.

Conclusions

  • Expect Cork City to score at some point. That is a ready angle. Dundalk did lose at home to 2nd and that may show us they are vulnerable to Cork City.
  • I must say that Cork City have been ultra reliable as a trading vehicle so if you were to focus on one match today, make it a Cork City match on a Friday.
  • I would lay Dundalk if Dundalk scored first.

19:45 - Limerick v Bray - 2.34 Limerick

  • 0-1 Limerick in the last head to head.
  • This is 6th v 3rd in the Irish Premier Division.

Limerick 100% stats

  • No 0-0.

Limerick other stats

  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 8 matches.
  • Not beaten a top 8 side at home failing to score that 2nd goal in all matches v top 5.

Bray 100% stats

  • No away match with a 1-0 or 0-1.

Bray other stats

  • All matches bar 1 saw at least one team score at least 2 goals away.
  • Beat 2nd and 4th away but lost to 5th and 7th away.
  • Only 1 away draw was a 0-0.
  • Failed to score last 2 aways.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Lay any late draw given Bray have had only one draw and that was a 0-0 away.
  • Lay Limerick if Limerick score first. No 1-0 or 0-1 for Bray away from home.
  • I do expect one team to score at least 2 goals. If 0-0 for a while back over 2.5 goals.

19:45 - Sligo Rovers v Finn Harps - 1.9 Sligo Rovers

  • 2-1 Finn Harps in the last head to head.
  • This is 10th v 8th in the Irish Premier Division.

Sligo Rovers 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
  • Only home defeats came v top 2.

Sligo Rovers other stats

  • Only 3 wins all season came at home.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Scored in all home matches.
  • Scored and conceded in all matches v 8th and lower, with a loss and 4 1-1 draws.

Finn Harps 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals away.
  • Scored and conceded in all matches v bottom 3.

Finn Harps other stats

  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • 4 defeats in 5 aways.
  • No draw in 11 matches.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in their last 3 aways.

Conclusions

  • Both teams to score looks like a possible pattern to recur today. In this case I would back 2-1/1-2 and hope the match is 1-1 for a while to allow us to trade out of both scorelines.
  • Lay any late draw while Finns continue to avoid draws.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Expect Sligo to score - they have scored in all home matches.

19:45 - Bohemians v Drogheda - 1.98 Bohs

  • 0-1 Bohemians in the last head to head.
  • This is 7th v 9th in the Irish premier division.

Bohemians 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.

Bohemians other stats

  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • 4 defeats in 5 home matches.
  • Only 1 draw all season.
  • Conceded in all bar 1 at home.

Drogheda 100% stats

  • No away draw.
  • No 0-0 away of course.
  • All defeats away v top 6 and play 7th today.
  • Beat 8th away just to throw a spanner in there.

Drogheda other stats

  • Failed to score in 4 with 2 consecutive 0-0's.
  • Failed to score in 3 of 4 away.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0. 0-0 sequences tend to end.
  • I would favour Bohemians today based on Drogs losing away to all top 6. Lay Drogs if they score first although they have failed to score in 4 and in 3 of their last 4 away.

20:00 - Shamrock Rovers v St Patricks - 1.7 Shamrock

  • 0-0 and 2-1 St Pats in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 5th v 12th in the Irish Premier Division.

Shamrock Rovers 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • Unbeaten at home v teams below them with a draw and 4 wins.

St Pats 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals.

St Pats other stats

  • Only 1 win away.
  • Only 1 away clean sheet.
  • Score draws v 3rd and 4th away.
  • Only 1 win in 9 matches.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0. Given St Pats score draw v 3rd and 4th away I would lay St Pats if St Pats score first.
  • I expect 2 goals at least in total if St Pats continue with their 100% over 1.5 goals pattern.

FRENCH OPEN

Busta v Dimitrov - 1.68 Dimitrov

  • 20th v 12th in the rankings and I think 11th-20th are very similar. The top 10 are a step apart.
  • Busta won in 2016 in Madrid , his first head to head win in 4.
  • Dimitrov at 1.62 was the favourite that day. The first set was a tie breaker.
  • Losses v 18th and 49th for Busta recently. He won the Estoril Tournament on Clay.
  • Prior to Madrid, Dimitrov was poor, but since he has lost to Thiem in Madrid (winning the first set) and Del Potro in Rome (3 setter).
  • If Dimitrov is to lose it will not be 3-0. This could even be a 5-setter today featuring 2 players very tight in the rankings. With a potential 5 setter, lay the player leading 2-1.

Zeballos v Goffin - 1.14 Goffin

  • 84th v 10th.
  • 4 consecutive head to head Goffin wins, the last 2 were straight set wins.
  • Zeballos showed something in reaching the semi final on clay in Barcelona beaten Khachanov along the way (the winner in straight sets over Berdych yesterday).
  • Goffin so far has had 4 6-2 set wins, one 6-3 set win and one 6-4 set win. He dropped a set last match when 2-0 ahead.
  • Zeballos beat Karlovic, winning the first 2 sets in a tie breaker.
  • I do think that Zeballos could take a set today, but which set? I would be tempted at laying Goffin at 1.15. He has, though , been excellent and may win the first set.
  • If Goff leads 2-0, I will lay him. Zeballos as I say has a set in him. I would not put off any layers of a 1.15 shot the deeper we get into a Grand Slam.

Garbine Muguruza v Yulia Putinseva - 1.29 Muguruza

  • 6th v 31st.
  • Muguruza has been great for trading already this French Open losing the first set v Kontaveit and winning the next 2 sets.
  • Muguruza retired in Miami so note that - we saw a previously retired Almagro retire again yesterday. Any prior recent injury can recur.
  • In Rome Muguruza reached the semi finals but again retired there.
  • Putinseva had little problems v Larsson. She did lose the 2nd set but won the 3rd 6-3.
  • Given Muguruza has retired from tournaments twice this year, I think she is layable. Better layable if winning the first set as we will get shorter odds but can the Russian President in a skirt start well?

Caroline Wozniacki v Catherine Bellis - 1.38 Caroline

  • 11th v 58th.
  • Straight set Wozza win in 2017 on hard.
  • Bellis must be respected in beating the in-form Bertens (my pre tournament fancy) in straight sets.
  • With Wozza retiring in Strasbourg (and again potential spinal problem if I remember rightly), I must side with Bellis today, but how?
  • A hope Wozza wins the first set or trades lower than 1.38 odds. I would then lay Wozza and hope Bellis repeats the excellent form v Bertens.

Diego Schwartzmann v Novak Djokovic - 1.07

  • 34th v 2nd.
  • Novak won the solitary head to head in 2014.
  • Novak is yet to drop a set. His odds have edged up from 1.03 to 1.07. We did lay him 2-0 up in the 3-0 set betting market at 1.1 the other day and the odds rose to 1.24.
  • This is something I would do if Novak took a 2 set lead.
  • As ever, 1.08 is layable off the bat in the best of 5 sets format. There is still a slight question mark regarding the fire in Novak's belly.
  • Diego did win the first set v Nishikori but then in Rome lost to Jack Sock. Diego should not win today.

Shuai Zhang v Svetlana Kuznetsova - 1.2 Svet

  • 32nd v 9th.
  • Zhang won the last head to head in Prague.but it is 4-1 Svetlana in head to heads.
  • Both players won the first set, lost the 2nd set in their last matches.
  • Will we see a 3 setter today? Lay the first set winner therefore.

Samantha Stosur v Bethanie Mattek-Sands - 1.38 Stosur

  • 18th v 120th. On rankings alone, this should be Stosur's.
  • Last head to head was 2009 in Wimbledon.
  • Mattek has gone through qualifying to get here.She beat Petra Kvitova in 2 tie breaker sets. I am not overwhelmed by tie breaker set wins.
  • 2 straight set wins for Stosur, the 2nd set last match was a tie breaker.
  • Stosur does tend towards tie breakers. She has won the last 4 tie breakers.
  • If we see a tie breaker we may see a rise in Stosur's odds. I would be keen to back here if she gets to near evens.

Milos Raonic v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez - 1.12 Raonic

  • 6th v 115th.
  • 2-0 Milos in head to heads - last one was 2014.
  • Quarters in Rome, Semis in Lyon for Raonic. He was beaten by a Berdych beaten yesterday.
  • Lopez was poor in Barcelona, Estoril and Madrid.
  • Expectation for 3-0 or 3-1 Raonic. Raonic's odds have risen in-play and if the rise is significant then I will back Raonic.

Dominic Thiem v Steve Johnson - 1.11 Thiem

  • 9th v 25th in the rankings. 5 and 4 set matches for SJ so far in France tells us to lay him if he leads 0-1 or 0-2 sets.
  • Thiem is excellent. He beat Nadal on clay in Rome.
  • Final, Final, Semi final on clay for Thiem.
  • Watch out for Steve Johnson to potentially take a set and not win today. That's a ready angle.

Nikolaz Basilashvili v Rafa Nadal - 1.03 Nadal

  • 61st v 5th in the rankings.
  • No head to heads.
  • Basil took a set off Tsonga before losing in Lyon. We can only hope for the same today.
  • Nadal must be layed at 1.03. He is only human. And this is a Yazz - the only way is up!!
  • Nadal has not been bothered yet and that is likely to continue but 1.03 lays are to be encouraged.