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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, September 29, 2017

An interesting set of matches tonight. If I am online, I will tweet @drtclub for the start of the Dutch Eerste Divisie which tends to see goals. I do need a break from live chat as I will be doing weekend live chats but you never know, if I am online, then expect to see me. I will shortlist the eyecatching matches at the DRT Facebook page.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

19:45 - QPR v Fulham - 2.26 Fulham

  • Both teams have scored in 5 of the last 6 head to heads.
  • There have been +2.5 goals in 11/14 QPR home matches.
  • Fulham have won by two or more goals in 5/10 trips to middle-third teams.

QPR

  • All 3 losses this season came away from home.
  • 2-2-2-2-0 scored at home. The 0 looks anomolous.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • 6 of 8 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Fulham

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 5 matches, a pattern we saw last year.

Conclusions

  • A strong both teams to score angle served us well mid week as both teams scored there too.
  • Will QPR revert to scoring 2 goals?
  • No firm angles here I'm afraid, bar the 0-0 ending 2nd half if 0-0 at halftime. Note QPR strong 2nd half scorers.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

19:45 - Monaco v Montpellier - 1.36 Monaco

  • Monaco have scored 2 goals at least in the last 4 head to head wins.
  • Monaco have had W/W double results in 8/10 home matches against middle-third teams while Montpellier have lost the first half in 11/17 away matches.
  • Monaco have won 10/10 home matches against middle-third teams.

Monaco

  • 6 wins and a loss this season. 4-0 Loss v Nice was rather out of the blue.
  • 3-4-1-6-0-3-4 goals scored this season.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime. 2-4-0-4-2-1-2 goals before halftime.

Montpellier

  • 2 consecutive clean sheets.
  • 0-0 v Paris St Germain may be more to do with PSG pre-Champions League.
  • 0-1-1 scored away.
  • Have yet to scored 2 goals this season.

Conclusions

  • If Montpellier cannot score 2 goals, they must be layed if scoring first. It will be mighty difficult to keep Monaco from scoring.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. Given the Monaco matches' goals before halftime, it is the logical choice.
  • Monaco at their best should score 2 goals at least.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

19:30 - Schalke v Leverkusen - 2.54 Schalke

  • 2 Leverkusen 1 goal wins and a Schalke 1-4 in the last 3 head to heads.
  • The market cannot split these 2 sides.

Schalke

  • No draw.
  • 2 consecutive defeats v Hoffenheim and Bayern Munich.
  • Only 1 clean sheet first match of the day.
  • 2 wins and a 0-3 loss v Bayern in 3 home matches.
  • 2-2-2-1 goals before halftime in their last 4 matches.
  • 3 losses this season came v the current top 4 (albeit only 6 matches).

Leverkusen

  • All over 2.5 goals.
  • Scored in all matches.
  • 3-1, 3-1, 2-1 losses away.
  • 1-2-1-4-1-3 goals scored.
  • 2-1-2-3-2-2 goals total before halftime.

Conclusions

  • Goals anyone? Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on recent matches for both sides. If 0-0 after 20 minutes back halftime+1.5 goals given the amount of time 2 goals at least have been scored in these 2 teams' first halves.
  • We should not see a 0-0 here today.
  • Both teams have a great chance of scoring today.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

19:00 - Twente v Heracles - 1.97 Twente

  • 1-1 and 1-0 Twente in the last 2 head to heads.
  • Twente have won 8/11 home matches against middle-third teams.
  • There have been +2.5 goals in 15/18 H Almelo away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • Twente have won only 1 match, an out-of-the-blue 4-0 win v Utrecht. The other results were all defeats. 4 of 5 defeats came away from home.
  • Twente failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • Both teams have scored in all of Heracles matches.
  • 2-2-1-2 goals scored by Heracles in their last 4 matches.
  • Both sides have only had 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • An interesting match and I cannot be a Twente backer at odds of 1.97. I am still scratching my head as to how Twente suddenly pulled out a 4-0 win at home last match where they failed to score in the 3 matches either side of that match.

SCOTTISH PREMIER LEAGUE

19:45 - Hamilton v Rangers - 1.51 Rangers

  • 10 goals to nil in Rangers favour in head to heads. Rangers should be confident here.
  • Over 2.5 goals for Hamilton in each of their last 6 matches.
  • No win in 4 for Hamilton sees 3 consecutive defeats.
  • Rangers losses this season came v Hibs (Rangers red card) and Celtic.
  • 2-3-2 scored by Rangers in their last 3 away matches.
  • I suspect Rangers will get the win here today. Hamilton scored in their last 3 home matches, the last 2 were 1-4 and 1-2 defeats.
  • If Hamilton score first, we have the option of backing Rangers or going to the correct score market knowing Rangers tend to score 2+ goals.

SPANISH PRIMERA LIGA

20:00 - Celta Vigo v Girona - 1.76 Celta Vigo

  • Celta Vigo have scored first in 6/8 home matches against promoted teams while bottom-six promoted teams have lost 58% of away matches against bottom-half teams since 2012-13.
  • Bottom-six promoted teams have conceded first in 69% of away matches against bottom-half teams since 2012-13.

Celta Vigo

  • Scored and conceded in 4 matches.
  • Scored in every match.
  • Loss, Win, Draw at home. 2-1-1 goals scored at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime.

Girona

  • Failed to score in their last 4 matches.
  • A 2-2 v Atl Madrid and a win v Malaga suggested a good season but as I say above, no goals since.

Conclusions

  • Newly promoted Girona are beginning to struggle. They may score today and if scoring first, I would lay Girona given they have only scored 2 goals once this season
  • Celta Vigo have no 0-0 at halftime yet this season. Only 6 matches but enough to lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market?

AUSTRIAN EERSTE DIVISIE

17:30 - Hartberg v SC Wiener Neustadt - 2.34 Hartberg

  • 1-0 Wiener in the last head to head.
  • I am following Hartberg this season as they caught my eye earlier in the season.

Hartberg

  • Only 2 defeats, one was v this lot.
  • Failed to score in their last 2 matches.
  • 3 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 6 matches.
  • 2 2-2 draws v 2nd and 3rd at home. Wiener are 1st in the league.

Wiener

  • 2 consecutive 1-1 draws.
  • No win in 3 away.
  • Only 1 loss away.
  • 1-0-0 scored away v top 6.

Conclusions

  • Wiener's scoring away v top 6 is poor and Hartberg could outscore the league leaders today.
  • I would lay Wiener if Wiener score first.
  • If Hartberg score 2 goals consistently, I could speculatively back 2-2 as a trading angle.

DANISH SUPERLIGA

19:15 - Randers v Horsens - 2.06 Randers

  • The home side has won each of the last 4 head to heads.
  • There have been -2.5 goals in 14/16 Randers FC home matches against top-half teams.
  • Horsens have scored first in 5/8 away matches against bottom-six teams.

Randers

  • Only 1 win for bottom of the league.
  • No home win sees 3 draws in the last 3 matches.
  • 0-0-1-0 scored at home.

Horsens

  • 2 defeats this season came away from home.
  • Only 1 loss in 7 but 4 draws in 6 matches.
  • Conceded in each of their last 5 matches away.
  • 100% record 4 out of 4 wins v 10th and lower but 3 wins came at home.

Conclusions

  • How the Friar Tuck are Randers favourite? Does the market know something that I don't?
  • On form Horsens could actually score 2 goals as they have away v bottom half sides.
  • With such a poor home scoring record, Randers look an obvious lay if scoring first.

Dutch Eerste Divisie

19:00 - Telstar v Fortuna Sittard - 2.56 Telstar

  • 2 consecutive 1-1 draws in head to heads.

Telstar

  • 5 draws and a win.
  • 4 score draws.
  • 2-2-3-1 goals before halftime.
  • 3-3 and 3-2 last 2 home matches.
  • Only 1 0-0.

Fortuna Sittard

  • Only 1 loss, 4-2.
  • Only 1 0-0 came away.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of 6 matches.

Conclusions

  • My bent here with this league is both teams to score and over 2.5 goals as the prevailing patterns in Holland.
  • Both sides have had the 1 0-0. I would lay the 0-0 today if 0-0 late on.
  • Telstar's largely score draw pattern suggests laying them if they score first.

19:00 - Go Ahead Eagles v Almere City - 2.02 Go ahead

  • 4-5-5-7-6 total goals in recent head to heads. More please today!

Go Ahead

  • No win.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar the last match, a 0-0. A rare thing for a team with that pattern.
  • 1-1, 1-1, 1-3 at home.

Almere

  • Both teams have scored in every match. That's more like it.
  • No 0-0 at halftime.
  • 3-1, 2-1, 1-1 away.

Conclusions

  • No 0-0 here today I would think.
  • Both teams to score is a strong pattern for Go Ahead at home and Almere away. I would be keener laying Almere if Almere scored first.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Almere.

19:00 - Dordrecht v Volendam - 2 Volendam

  • 1-0 Dordrecht and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.

Dordrecht

  • Both teams have scored in all of Dordrecht's matches.
  • 2-2-1 goals scored at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime.

Volendam

  • No win.
  • 1-0, 1-1, 1-0 away.
  • Failed to score in 4 of 5 matches.

Conclusions

  • I prefer congruity. There is none here. Both teams to score for Dordrecht, not away for Volendam who failed to score in 4 of 5 matches.
  • Why Volendam are favourites is beyond me? Am I missing something here?

19:00 - NEC Nijmegen v MVV Maastricht - 2 NEC

  • 2 consecutive 4-1 NEC wins in head to heads.

NEC

  • Both teams scored in 5 of 6 matches.
  • 3-1, 2-1, 1-1 in the 3 home matches.
  • 3-3 last match.
  • No 0-0 at halftime.
  • Scored in every match.

MVV

  • Unbeaten.
  • Like NEC, 2 consecutive draws.
  • Have had a couple of 0-0's this season.

Conclusions

  • I would lay any late draw here in the hope that both sides' draw sequence ends today.
  • NEC have scored in every match so expect a goal from them today?
  • 2 teams in reasonable form so tough to choose between the 2. Is this a match to back 2-1 and 1-2 and hope both teams to score and we see a 1-1 in order to trade out of 2-1 and 1-2.

19:00 - Jong Utrecht v Helmond Sport - 2.52 Helmond

  • 1-0 Utrecht and 1-1 in the 2 head to heads.
  • Only 1 win between these 2 suggests the market is right here. A match with little in the way of positive angles.
  • Both teams have scored in 4 of 5 matches for Jong and all matches for Helmond.
  • A match for the in-play stats but certainly we should not expect a 0-0.

19:00 - Den Bosch v Jong PSV - 2.56 Den Bosch

  • 0-0 last head to heads, 5-4 PSV in the previous match.

Den Bosch

  • 3-1-3-0-3-0 conceded.
  • No 0-0 at halftime.
  • Failed to score in one only match.
  • Only 2 wins came in last 3 matches.

Jong PSV

  • Only one loss.
  • 2 consecutive draws.
  • 1-2, 1-2, 0-0 last 3 head to heads.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Den Bosch.
  • Den Bosch are likely to score. They concede 3 goals in an alternate fashion so far this season. Either a clean sheet or 3 goals conceded!

19:00 - FC Oss v Jong Ajax - 1.85 Jong Ajax

  • 10 goals to nil Ajax in the last 2 head to heads. 1.85 odds does not suggest an average 5 goals from Jong Ajax today.

FC Oss

  • 3-1-3-3-0-2 goals scored this season.
  • Failed to score last home match.
  • Scored and conceded in 3 of 4 matches.
  • Only 1 loss.

Jong Ajax

  • Unbeaten.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of 6 matches.
  • Scored in all matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime.
  • 2-3-4 scored at home.

Conclusions

  • Is this a case of Man Utd away to CSKA? 1.85 odds United were and that was a Gift from the Gods.
  • It all points to a comfortable evening for Jong Ajax, scoring consistently away from home. They do concede so expect both teams to score and expect this to be a traditional eerste divisie match where both teams score and over 2.5 goals comes in.
  • That is if Oss can get back to scoring ways as they failed to score last home match.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market if you want. Jong have a 100% record.

19:00 - De Graafschap v Emmen - 2 de Graaf

  • No strong patterns in head to heads.
  • Emmen are unbeaten this season but 5 consecutive draws. This draw sequence must end soon surely and I would take a chance and lay the late draw.
  • De Graaf's 2 0-0's came away from home so do not expect a home 0-0.
  • 2-0 and 1-2 for De graaf and 0-2, 2-2 and 1-1 Emmen away.
  • Both sides had a 0-0 last match. I hope this will not happen today.

19:00 - Cambuur v Waalwijk - 1.32 Cambuur

  • 5-5-4-5-4-5 goals total in recent head to heads.
  • 2-3-2-5 goals scored by Cambuur in recent head to heads.

Cambuur

  • 2 losses came first 2 matches.
  • Both teams scored in the 2 home matches, a loss and a 2-2.

Waalwijk

  • No win.
  • 3 draws in 4 matches.
  • 2-1 and 1-1 away.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.

Conclusions

  • Head to heads suggest goals, and shed loads of them! Play with the figure 5 if you want (e.g. if 0-0 after 15-20 minutes, back over 4.5 goals at enhanced odds).
  • I must oppose any Waalwijk lead here in the hope the head to heads prove Cambuur the dominant side able to score 2+ goals.

19:00 - Jong AZ Alkmaar v FC Eindhoven - 2.12 Jong

  • No head to heads.

Jong AZ

  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • 2-1 and 2-2 at home.
  • 3-2-0-2-2-1 goals scored this season.

FC Eindhoven

  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • Only 1 win.
  • That was the only clean sheet.
  • 1-1, 2-1, 0-1 away for FC.

Conclusions

  • Both sides have had only 1 clean sheet. Lay the late 0-0?