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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, May 29, 2015

Where I mention BANKER below, this signifies those matches where I think the favourites should win. These matches I would personally prioritise as regards DRT.

Remember the strategies:

Lay the 0-0 halftime score in certain signalled matches

Lay the 0-0 2nd half in matches where goals were expected but have not yet materialised

Lay the 2-2 scoreline, especially early on in matches. 2-2 shows us that teams are scoring and conceding.

Lay the away team leading 0-2 before halftime, especially if they are not the pre-market favourites. The home team is usually galvanised by the halftime team talk.

Lay the underdog if they score first in certain matches (especially BANKER matches where I would back the BANKERS if they conceded first at enhanced odds).

Lay the underdog scoring early in the first half, in the HALF TIME market, especially in BANKER matches.

Do note matches where one team is red carded. The opponents do tend to score next more often than not.

Review of yesterday's Daily Bulletin.

De Graafschap's match ended 0-0.

Zalgiris did exactly what a 1.12 shot should be doing. 2 goals before halftime and 0-4 at fulltime. Do remember that these short odds teams do offer value in some markets other than the match odds.

Steaua Bucharest did what was required to win the title  0-0 draw.

Targu Mures scored first and I thought their title bid was on. Otelul equalised and won with a 90th minute goal.  Otelul did to Targu what they did to Steaua Bucharest - the spanner in the works I mentioned!

Karlsruhe scored first away to Hamburg . I did mention to favour Hamburg who equalised. So game on for the 2nd leg.

Motherwell won 1-3 against Rangers and I did lay Motherwell 0-1 up but 'twas not to be.

The first set in Cilic's match was a tiebreaker, so the 1.07 Cilic price did rise for any layers of shorties. Cilic won 3-0

I got the Wozniaki match spot on. Did you lay 2-0 sets? Did you lay Wozniaki after an early break. If so, it would have been a great pay day laying at low odds as suggested.

Mayer won as I suspected and again, both players won a set. As I said in the research, the set betting was unhappily illiquid all day. I do like laying 3-0 and 2-0 after a player has won the first set.

Espinosa won the first set v Kvitova and I hope you layed Espinosa 1-0 up? Kvitova won the next 2 sets.

Lino won the first set v Petkovic. Again, did you lay this underdog 2-0 sets  or in the match odds.

I got the Schiavone match spot on too. Both players won a set and terrier Schiavone ( Ferrer in a skirt!!) won the match. Another great call.

Did you lay Goffin 3-0 sets as advised? He won 3-1

Azarenka won 2-0.

I layed Serena Williams at 1.04 and it paid off. She lost the first set and the odds went to 1.3 and higher for a lovely trade.

Chardy won the first set against Isner. I did say to lay Chardy 2-0 up, but Isner won the 2nd set.

I mentioned the value call yesterday in Murray's match was 3-1 given Sousa's recent strong clay credentials. 3-1 it ended. Hope you were on.

Jack Sock lost the first set. I wanted to lay him 3-0 if he won the first set. I was proven correct in a roundabout way but there was no trade to be had.

Heather Watson lost the first set and was far more competitive 2nd set but lost that too.

Kevin Anderson lost the first set. Did you lay Lu? Anderson won the next 3!

I layed Mladenovic after she won the first set, and we got some great odds movement as the 2nd set went to 7-5.

All in all , some superb calls in the tennis, and Serena's lay and Murray 3-1 stood out. Did you notice how many times an underdog won the first set, only for the strong favourite to then assert? If the set betting markets were more liquid, there is plenty of trading opportunities to be had there.

I hope you profited in some way from the tennis, while the football coupons remain dross. Relying on Romanian and Lithuanian leagues is not personally my idea of productive football trading. May I remind you that the big profits are to be had with the more reliable teams , players and leagues that we'll see once the 2015/2016 season proper kicks off in August.

On to today...

2pm - Spain U19 v Georgia U19   - 1.21 home

Standout Stats

  • This is a UEFA Under 19 Championship.
  • Only 3 losses for Spain u19 since 2010.
  • 9 wins , a draw and a loss in their last 11 matches.
  • Unbeaten at home since 2010
  • No draw in 9 for Georgia U19.
  • 7 wins and 2 losses in those matches. Losses v Israel U19 and Montenegro U19.
  • 3 losses and 2 wins in their last 5 away matches.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • The market seems right here based on Spain's enviable record since 2010 at home. Georgia's away losses recently v Serbia, Turkey and Israel suggests Spain will be too much for them today.
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4:30pm - Botosani v Viitorul Constanta  - 1.59 home

Standout Stats

  • 2 draws, 3-1 botosani win, draw, Botosani 1-2 win in head to heads.
  • This is 8th v 11th in Romania.
  • Only 1 match remains this season and this is a dead rubber. No team gains anything from a win today.
  • 5 losses at home for Botosani, 4 of them came without Botosani scoring. They score in head to heads, ergo, they will not lose?
  • Constanta are pretty good away from home to teams above them in the league. Losses away v 1st and 2nd and unbeaten v 3rd to 9th.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • A dead rubber. Arguments can be made for both sides and I will let this one go. I would lay Botosani if they score first, given Constanta's appealing record away v teams above them in the league.
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4:30pm - HJK Helsinki v KuPS  - 1.32 home

Standout Stats

  • 4-2 HJK, 3-1 HJK, 2-2, 2-2, 1-0 KUPS in head to heads.
  • This is 1st v 7th in the Finnish top league. HJK have played 11 matches and KuPS have played only 9 matches.

HJK Helsinki

  • The only defeat this season was 1-0 v KuPS. The market expects revenge today
  • A draw and 5 consecutive wins for HJK at home.
  • 4 consecutive wins to nil at home.

KuPS

  • No win in 5 matches, failing to score in 3 of them.
  • Only 1 away win was 0-1 first match of the season
  • Since beating HJK, KuPS have only scored 0-0-1-0-1

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • I do not expect another KuPS 1-0 win. If they score first this time, lay them and hope HJK score as they have in all home matches.
  • Expect an HJK win, it might only be a 1-0 or 2-0 if they keep clean sheets. They have scored 2 in their last 3 matches. They have only scored more than 2 goals once.
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5pm - Levadia Tallinn (W) v Noortekoondis (W)  - home side unbackable

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Just a quick note when you see this kind of a market. Look at a comfortable halftime win to nil ( over 2.5 goals 1st half) and something like an 8-0, 9-0 home win. It is always worth speculating. That is how to create value from the unbackable.
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5:30pm - Marienlyst v Varde  - 1.17 home

Standout Stats

  • 5-2 and 3-0 to Marienlyst in head to heads.
  • This is the....wait for it.... Danish 2nd Division West. If you could see me now, I am shivering at the thought and wiping sweat from my brow, pining for the top European Leagues to return.

Marienlyst

  • 2nd in the league. a win takes Marienlyst top. Varde stay 3rd bottom with a win today
  • 5 matches remain this season, suggesting Marienlyst must win their home matches at least.
  • 2 match winning run.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 3 matches at home.
  • Conceded in their last 8 matches.
  • 3 wins in their last 4 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Only 1 loss at home
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • 72% over 2.5 goals at home.

Varde

  • No win in 9 away matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 3 away matches.
  • 5 draws in their last 7 away matches includes 3 consecutive away score draws.
  • Only 1 win in 20 matches came last match.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Will Varde really win 2 consecutive matches with THAT record? I don't think so. Lay Varde if they lead.
  • Marienlyst have scored consistently in head to heads and expect 3/4 goals from them today if on form.
  • It also suggests we lay the 0-0 halftime score.
  • Enter this match with the thought that the home team must win, and keep to that especially if they are not winning coming to the end of the match.
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6pm - Dinamo Zagreb v Rijeka  - 1.6 home

Standout Stats

  • 3-0 and 2-1 in recent home head to heads.
  • Quite simply, Dinamo Zagreb have not lost a home LEAGUE match since August 2010. This is your angle into this match. Hope and pray therefore that Rijeka go 0-2 up quickly! Rijeka did beat Dinamo Zagreb at home in recent years, but that came in the cup.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • This is always a match I look forward to . Dinamo Zagreb at home. The angle is simple. Do not expect Dinamo Zagreb to lose and that is the angle in, only.
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6pm - Gefle v Hacken  - 2.12 away

Standout Stats

  • Draw, Draw, 1-0 Gefle, 3-1 Hacken in head to heads.
  • This is 9th v 7th in the Swedish Allsvenskan

Gefle

  • 1 match winning streak at home.
  • No defeat in 4 at home
  • Conceded in their last 4 matches
  • Conceded in only 1 of 4 home matches.
  • 2 0-0's at home.
  • All 4 defeats came away from home.
  • Have not conceded yet at home.

Hacken

  • 3 consecutive wins away from home
  • 3 consecutive away clean sheets
  • No draw in 7 matches.
  • 4 clean sheets in their last 6 matches.
  • Unbeaten in 4 away matches.
  • 6 of 7 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Head to heads are inconclusive.
  • Both of these sides have strong clean sheet-ery  - Gefle at home and Hacken recently .
  • This makes this a tough match for me to get an angle into. Only 10 matches in , in Sweden, and I'll hope there will be solid opportunities in Sweden with more matches played.
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6pm - Odd v Aalesunds - 1.55 home

Standout Stats

  • 5-1 Odd, 2-1 Odd and 2-2 in the last 3 head to heads.
  • This is 6th v 12th in the Norwegian Eliteserien after 10 matches.

Odd

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • 3 draws in 4 matches.
  • Only 1 loss at home v Rosenborg.

Aalesunds

  • No draw in 5 away matches
  • Scored and conceded in their last 4 away matches
  • 2-3-4 conceded in their last 3 matches.
  • 5 over 2.5 goals matches in their last 6.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Little to work with, but I would venture towards both teams scoring today so lay any team 2-0 up.  I would have to agree with the market here. Aalesunds could concede heavily again today . The threat is there, although they did beat 3rd away from home 1-2.
  • If Odd click, they could score 3+ goals.
  • Lay Aalesunds in the halftime market if they score first and early first half.
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6pm - Qatar Youth v France Youth  - 1.11 away

Standout Stats

  • I think this is the annual Toulon Tournament. 1-3 to France on 27th May v USA suggests they will put Qatar to the sword, unless the Qataris have, of course, bribed the referee and the French goalkeeper.....allegedly.
  • I expect France to win halftime and fulltime and score 3+ goals today as per the odds.
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7:30pm - FC Basel v St Gallen  - 1.63 home

Standout Stats

  • 2-1 Gallen, 2-2 and 1-3 Basel in the last 3 head to heads.
  • This is 1st v 5th in Switzerland after 35 matches.
  • Basel are Champions in this, the last match of the season. There is little for St Gallen to play for.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • A dead rubber. A happy farewell to home support with a win?
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7:45pm - Benfica v Maritimo  - 1.27 home

Standout Stats

  • 2-0, 4-0, 4-1 Benfica wins in head to heads.
  • This is the Portugeuse Cup.
  • Unbeaten in the Taca de liga since 2009.
  • This match is being played in Coimbra - a neutral ground, therefore a Final?
  • 9 consecutive Benfica clean sheets in this cup.
  • 3 consecutive wins for Maritimo in their last 3 cup matches. In the 10 previous matches, they won only 1 in the cup.
  • Maritimo beat Porto 2-1 last cup match. Hmmm....

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Benfica are the better side  - look at the head to heads and cup record - unbeaten since 2009. They must be favoured in what could be the final toda. Maritimo throw a slight spanner in the works with that 2-1 win over Porto! At their best, Benfica score 2+. Lay Maritimo if they lead.
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French Open Tennis

I was delighted with the research yesterday. IT was really solid in pretty much every match. I need to prioritise Saturday and Sunday's Football research today so the French Open will get a cursory glance. I will commit a half hour of research to it. 10am - Ana Ivanovic v Donna Vekic  - 1.17 Ana. 7th v 165th and one thing I am learning in Grand Slams is that the rankings don't necessarily help!. Ask Halep and Kvitova! No head to heads.  3rd round exit to Navarro in Spain, 2nd round in Italy and 2 consecutive 2-1 wins here for Ana. In both instances she lost the first set Look out for that as an angle. If she loses the first set, she seems able to reply almost instantly. Lay Vekic 2-0 if she is the first set winner 10am - Annika Beck v Elina Svitolina  - 1.35 Elina 83rd v 21st.no head to heads. A real struggle for Elina last match. 7-5 and 9-7 the last 2 sets suggests we lay her 2-0 at about 2.00 odds. 10am - Alize Cornet v Lucic Baroni  - 1.55 Alize. Odds far too short here. I have followed Lucic Baroni twice now. She scared Keys and mullered Halep. Alize has been a ropey near evens favourite for her first 2 round matches and I feel this will go to 3 sets. Lay the first set winner, particularly if it is Cornet. 11:30am - Damir Dzumhur v Roger Federer  - 1.01 Fed. 1.25 for 3-0 appeals but little value. FEd is likely to win sets 6-3 or 6-4 it seems. 11:30am - Lucie Safarova v Sabine Lisicki  - 1.49 home 13th v 19th. This could be a tight one. 1-3 to Sabine Lisiki in head to heads. She's not even the favourite The last head to head was a 3 setter in China. I see another 3 setter here and would Lay Lucie at 2.06 2-0 sets or better yet lay her 2-0 if she wins the first set. We'll get shorter odds. 12pm - Nicolas Mahut v Gilles Simon   -1.12 Simon 116th v 13th. Both frenchies here so plenty of "Magnifique!" and " Zut Alors" from the home support., We have seen 3 tie breaker sets in the last 2 head to heads so this is a match to lay 3-0 Simon at 1.81 which seems far too short unless Mahut is out of form? This was a tactic I used against another frog, Pouille who nicked a set off Simon first round. 1.81 is short enough to lay I feel. We'll get value from Mahut here I am sure. The 1.12 odds though do look really short in the match odds too. 12pm - Elena Vesnina v Ekaterina Makarova  - 1.3 Ekaterina 82nd v 9th in the world. I do like to see top 10 players. They are a level above even 11th . 2014 and 2015 head to heads have been emphatic for Makarova, hence the confidence. 2 straight sets wins. I do like to see fellow country folk playing each other. It always seems to bring the best out of the underdog. So lay Vesnina if she wins the first set.