Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

4 matches with a favourite at odds of 2.4 or higher makes for an apparently tough coupon. West Brom is a derby(ish) of sorts. Rennes v Lyon is tough - both sides are top 10 and struggle v the top 10.
Both teams to score (surely?) for the mighty Hoff who are opposable (as ever) if scoring first. Chievo, Livingston and Girona matches are tough to call.
The Irish Premier Division is still in its infancy but for me is very tradable particularly using the in-play stats.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

20:00 - West Brom v Birmingham City - 1.83 West Brom

West Brom (4th)

  • A draw and 2 wins last 3 matches.
  • Only 2 losses in 9 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • Unbeaten at home v 9th to 21st inclusive.
  • 28 of 41 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 21 goals scored at home last 1/2 hour of matches.

Birmingham (13th)

  • 4 consecutive defeats.
  • Only 1 win in 7 matches.
  • Failed to score in their last 4 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 7 away.
  • Only 1 away win v the top 8.

Conclusions

  • I would favour West Brom today given their unbeaten run v 9th to 21st inclusive at home and their tendency to score. Simple angle. Remember West Brom have failed to score in only 5 matches and are strong last 1/2 hour scorers at home (if they have not scored by the hour mark).

FRENCH LIGUE 1

19:45 - Rennes v Lyon - 2.18 Lyon

Rennes (8th)

  • Only 3 wins in 9 matches did come at home.
  • 3 wins and a draw last 4 at home.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches all season.
  • Unbeaten in 7 at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home (36%).
  • Did beat Lyon 0-2 earlier this season but 3/3 losses v the top 2 -scoring in defeat.
  • Only 1 win at home v top 10.
  • 7 goals scored at home in the first 15 minutes of matches.

Lyon (3rd)

  • Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • In all matches they failed to score in, they lost the match.
  • 2 losses and a 2-2 away last 3 away matches.
  • Conceded in their last 7 matches.
  • Only 1 win away v the top 10.
  • 16 of 21 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Only 1 win at home v the top 10 plays only 1 win away v the top 10. A lack of clarity for me. I must say that Rennes are in good recent home form.
  • Rennes could score today. They have failed to score in only 3 matches. An angle to work with in a less than clear match.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

19:30 - Hoffenheim v Bayer leverkusen - 2.32 Hoffenheim

Hoffenheim (9th)

  • Only 2 defeats since 20th October 2018.
  • Scored and conceded in 15 of their last 17 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in 11 matches.
  • Scored in their last 11 matches.
  • Not played 6th-10th at home  but did not beat the top 5 at home.
  • 1-4 win v Leverkusen earlier this season.
  • 15 of 21 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Leverkusen (6th)

  • 8 wins in the last 11 matches.
  • 4 wins in their last 5 away.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Scored 2 goals at least in 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 5 away matches.
  • All away defeats came v the top 5.

Conclusions

  • An intriguing match. Leverkusen only tend to lose to the top 5 away but were roundly beaten by the mighty Hoff earlier this season without home advantage.
  • Both teams to score looks a good play given the Hoffenheim record and Leverkusen who have failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • I would look to lay the Hoff if the Hoff score first.
  • I tend to lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market but I would delay.

ITALIAN SERIA A

19:30 - Chievo v Cagliari - 2.8 Chievo

  • I do not normally research 2.8 the favourite matches but there are not so many matches this Friday.
  • Chievo are bottom of the league. Automatically opposable?
  • Only 1 win all season for them. They failed to score in 4 of their last 6 matches.
  • A 2-1 loss v Cagliari last time these 2 met. Chievo's only win came v 19th at home and I think that was after a Frosinone red card.
  • 3 wins in 5 matches for Cagliari came at home. They have failed to score in their last 5 away matches.
  • Cagliari lost their last 6 away matches, no win in 12 away, conceding in those 12 away.
  • Only 1 away win for Cagliari.
  • Cagliari are solid at home and I would be with them were this a home match but away they have trouble even scoring.
  • There is a subtle feeling that Cagliari may get away with it v bottom. But please note that the market has not even attempted to split these 2!

SCOTTISH PREMIERSHIP

19:45 - Livingston v Hibernian - 2.48 Hibernian

  • As above, ordinarily I would leave this match alone.

Livingston (8th)

  • Only 4 home defeats v 2nd, 3rd, 9th and 11th.V 2nd, 9th and 11th, Livingston also beat them at home.
  • 5 wins and a 0-0 at home v 5th to 10th.
  • Only 2 wins in the last 12 came at home, last 2 home matches.
  • 10 goals scored last 15 minutes of home matches.

Hibernian (6th)

  • 4 wins and a draw in 5 matches, vast improvement. Scored 2+ goals in those wins. Draw was a 1-1 v Rangers.
  • 3 wins in 4 away, scoring and conceding in the wins.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in 11 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 6 away.
  • 16 of 19 goals scored away came 2nd half.
  • Not beaten a top 8 side away. 2-1 loss v Livingston earlier this season. Scored that 2nd goal only once v 1st.

Conclusions

  • An interesting match and the odds suggest an argument can be made for both sides. Well...Livingston have only 4 losses but in 3 of those matches, did beat the same sides later in the season at home. But they have poor recent form, but 2 consecutive home wins.
  • Hibs suddenly found their form, 4 wins and a draw v Rangers.
  • I would lay any 2nd half 0-0 given the strong scoring record 2nd half for these 2. A tentative nod towards the recent form of Hibs despite an inability to beat any top 8 side away this season.

SPANISH LA LIGA

20:00 - Girona v Atl Bilbao - 2.84 home and away sides

  • Oh Lordy. Another imponderable....

Girona (12th)

  • Only 1 loss in 5 matches was a 2-3 v Valencia.
  • Scored 2+ goals in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • No win in 8 at home.
  • Not beaten a top 16 side at home.
  • Scored 2 goals twice v top 16 at home.....and lost.
  • 10 of 13 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Atl Bilbao (9th)

  • Only 2 defeats in 14 matches came away v Real Sociedad and Valencia.
  • 2 defeats in 3 away.
  • Not beaten the top 17 away. Scored 2 goals twice with a loss and a draw.

Conclusions

  • That clears that up then.....not beaten a top 16 at home plays not beaten a top 17 side away.
  • I would lay any side if they lead 2-0/0-2 today.
  • On ultra recent form, Atl Bilbao look solid but then 2 recent away losses.
  • A gentle reminder to you, dear reader, why it's 2.84 odds the favourite. Who are you with?

IRISH PREMIER DIVISION

19:45 - Bohemians v St Patricks - 2.4 Bohemians

  • 3 wins, 2 draws and a loss v Cork City for Bohemians this season. 1-1-1 goals scored at home so limited in that respect.
  • 4 consecutive Bohs clean sheets ended with their conceding the last 2 matches.
  • 2 win, 2 draws and 2 losses this season for St Pats. They failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • All under 2.5 goals for St Pats this season.
  • A limited number of matches and 2.4 the favourite suggests we leave this alone. No form meat on the bone.
  • I do feel Bohs may not score 2 goals but may not lose today given St Pats have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.

19:45 - Derry City v Sligo Rovers - 1.91 Derry

  • Only 6 matches played by both sides and little really to grasp to.
  • Derry's 2 wins came at home. Their sole home loss came v likely Champions Dundalk.
  • 2 wins for Sligo, home and away
  • Sligo happen to, at this early stage of the season, lie in between the 2 teams Derry beat at home this season.
  • Sole away win for Sligo came v current bottom side Finn Harps.

19:45 - Dundalk v Cork City - 1.67 Dundalk

  • Clash between the likely top 2
  • Very little to work with but 2 wins already for Cork sees them needing to take points of their likeliest title rival.
  • A match to watch and monitor via in-play stats.

19:45 - Waterford v Finn Harps - 1.57 Waterford

  • Finn Harps have failed to score in 5 matches this season and look like the whipping boys.
  • 2 consecutive clean sheets for Waterford. I think the market is right here and would definitely lay Finn Harps if Finn Harps scored first.

20:00 - Shamrock Rovers v UCD - 1.22 Shamrock

  • 4 consecutive wins to nil for Shamrock. 6 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • 4 consecutive home clean sheets Shamrock.
  • UCD only won one match this season, last match v Finn Harps. 3 consecutive away defeats.
  • This looks like the market is accurate here based on the limited number of matches.
  • I think this falls into the category of 'if 0-0 at 20 minutes, back 1-0, 2-0 halftime score market'.

DANISH SUPER LIGA

18:00 - Brondby v OB - 2.22 Brondby

  • 2-1 Brondby, 1-1 and 2-0 OB last 3 head to heads is inconclusive.
  • We are in the post-season battles now with Brondby and OB, 4th and 3rd in the the seasonal form, battling in the Championship Round.
  • Brondby scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • OB ended the season with 5 consecutive wins.
  • Brondby, season long, had a poor run v the top 5 - they did not win a match.
  • OB did not win any match away v the top 4 last season.
  • This match is lacking any strong angles for me. Both sides have stumbled v the top 4 this season and both sides meet fellow top 4 this match.