DRT Daily Research Bulletin, December 29, 2017
My solitary angle yesterday, laying Arsenal if Arsenal led was successful as 0-1 turned to 1-1. Cashing out there and then was the prudent option as, in viewing the match, it was obvious Arsenal were not the 'usual' Arsenal we see away from home. Palace continue to score 2 goals at home. Did anyone lay the 1-3 scoreline rather than Arsenal as they led 1-3?
On to today and it is the English Championship and Italian Seria A. There are reasonable angles into the QPR and Napoli matches. Will Napoli score 3 goals again?
19:45 - Cardiff v Preston - 2.16 Cardiff
- The home team has won the last 4 head to heads.
- 2 consecutive defeats now, conceding 2+ goals.
- 4 match winning run at home ends with defeat v Fulham.
- Failed to score in only 5 matches.
- Only 1 home loss came last match.
- 2+ goals scored at home in all bar one match v top 12.
- Unbeaten in 8 matches.
- 5 consecutive 0-0's at halftime and only one 0-0 at fulltime.
- Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 9 away matches.
- 5 0-0's at halftime away.
- Only 1 away win v top 15 teams.Did beat 2nd away.
- Scored 2 goals v 1st and 2nd away.
- 10 of 14 goals scored away came 2nd half.
- 10 of 14 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
- Home team is favoured via head to heads.
- Preston, note, have scored 2 goals v the top 2. Will that continue v 3rd? A team 3rd who have conceded 2 goals at least in 2 consecutive defeats now.
- I must add that ordinarily I do not research the Championship so put the research in that context. It is such a competitive league.
- If 0-0 at halftime I would take it on 2nd half.
19:45 - Millwall v QPR - 2.22 Millwall
- 3 consecutive head to head score draws.
- London derby!!
- Unbeaten in 4 matches and a 2-2 v 1st in the league must instill some confidence.
- 3-2-2 goals scored in their last 3 home matches.
- 6 0-0's at halftime at home.
- Losses at home v 10th, 20th and 21st.
- Scored first in 8/12 at home.
- Scored and conceded in 3 of their last 4 matches.
- Only 1 win in 12 away.
- Only 4 clean sheets.
- Only 1 win in 9 matches.
- Only away win was v bottom of the league.
- London derby so that is the first element which makes this tough to read.
- QPR have only 1 away win but do draw so I would lay QPR if QPR scored first, particularly if you look at Millwall's recent goalscoring record at home.
- Millwall do a few 0-0's at halftime at home. I would expect 2nd half goals if another 0-0 at halftime.
ITALIAN SERIA A
19:45 - Crotone v Napoli - 1.27 Napoli
- 1-2 and 3-0 Napoli in the last 2 head to heads.
- 5 losses in 6 matches.
- Only 3 clean sheets.
- Only 1 0-0.
- Only met one of the top 7 at home, a 0-2 defeat v 3rd.
- Failed to score in 5 matches v top 6 teams.
- 5 of 7 goals scored at home came 1st half.
- Only loss was v Juventus.
- 8 wins in 9 away matches.
- Failed to score in only 4 matches.
- Scored 3 goals before halftime in each of their last 2 matches.
- 3+ goals scored home and away v 14th and lower.
- Napoli have been conceding in wins v 14th and lower away from home but if they continue to score 3+ goals, that will seal the deal.
- Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market given Napoli have scored 6 goals in 2 matches before halftime.