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ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

20:00 - Norwich v Leicester - 1.78 Leicester

  • +3.5 goals: There have been +3.5 goals in 7/13 Norwich home matches and +2.5 goals in 9/13 Norwich home matches. Leicester have scored first in 6/8 away matches against bottom-six teams.

Norwich - 20th

  • Only 4 wins.
  • 3 losses and a draw last 4 matches.
  • Failed to score last 3 matches.
  • 2 draws and a win at home ended with a loss v Liverpool.
  • 8% 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 win home and away v the top 10.
  • Beat Man City 3-2.
  • 1-1 last time these 2 met.
  • 1-2-3-3-2-2-2-2 goals conceded at home the top 9.
  • 67% of goals scored at home came 1st half.

Leicester - 3rd

  • Only 1 win in 6 matches.
  • Failed to score last 2 matches v Wolves and Man City.
  • 23% 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 100% wins away v 12th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Norwich consistently concede 2 goals v the top 9 at home. Leicester have failed to score last 2 matches but could see a return to goals today.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

SPANISH LA LIGA

20:00 - Sociedad v Valladolid - 1.53 Sociedad

  • 1st goal: Real Sociedad have scored first in 10/12 home matches while Valladolid have lost 5/7 away matches against top-six teams. Valladolid have lost the first half in 5/7 away matches against top-six teams.

Sociedad - 6th

  • 3 consecutive wins came at home.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 8 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches, 6 at home.
  • Scored in their last 12 at home.
  • Unbeaten at home v 11th and lower with all wins bar a draw.

Valladolid - 15th

  • Only 2 wins in 13 matches.
  • 62% 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Not beaten a top 12 side home or away.
  • 8 goals scored and 13 goals conceded away last 15 minutes of away matches.

Conclusions

  • Valladolid have not beaten the top 12 home or away - any reason to expect a change today? especially v a Sociedad with 3 consecutive home wins.
  • Sociedad like over 2.5 goals so lay any 2nd half 0-0.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

19:30 - Fortuna Dusseldorf v Hertha Berlin - 2.56 Fortuna Dusseldorf

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 15/20 F Dusseldorf home matches and in 8/9 Hertha Berlin away matches against bottom-six teams. Hertha Berlin have conceded first in 12/17 away matches.
  • Only 5 wins for Dusseldorf. A draw and 3 wins away for Hertha Berlin.
  • 16th v 14th. Hertha have scored and conceded v the bottom 3 and are unbeaten. But then Dusseldorf have wins v 10th, 13th and 15th at home. So...similar chance for them? Welcome to 2.56 the favourite!!

FRENCH LIGUE 1

19:45 - Nimes v Marseille - 2.22 Marseille

  • 1st goal: Nimes have conceded first in 7/9 home matches against top-six teams while Marseille have won 12/16 away matches against bottom-six teams. Nimes have lost 6/9 home matches against top-six teams.

Nimes - 18th

  • 4 wins and a loss last 5 matches.
  • 4 wins in 5 at home.
  • No draw in 12 and in 7 at home.
  • Not played top 2 at home, lost to them away.

Marseille - 2nd

  • Only 1 loss since 2nd November came last match.
  • 5 wins and 2 draws last 7 matches away.
  • Only 2 away defeats v 1st and 19th.
  • 9/13 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • With only 2 defeats away for Marseille and only 1 loss since 2nd November coming last match, it is a bit of a stretch, on form, to think Marseille will lose today. But this struggling Nimves are on a 4 win in 5 at home record and 4 wins in 5 overall record. Nimes are yet to play the top 2 at home but did lose to them away.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

19:00 - Willem II v FC Groningen - 2.42 Willem II

  • +3.5 goals: There have been +3.5 goals in 6/11 Willem II home matches against top half non-Big Two teams and +2.5 goals in 11/16 Willem II such matches. Groningen have lost 7/10 away matches against top-six teams.

SCOTTISH FA CUP

19:45 - Hibernian v Inverness - 1.62 Hibernian

  • Premiership v Championship so we have a gap in leagues, which I like for cup matches.
  • Hibs have only lost to Celtic in the Scottish FA Cup.
  • Inverness have only lost to Hearts recently in the cup.

TURKISH SUPER LIG

17:00 - Alanyaspor v Besiktas - 2.3 Alanyaspor

  • Match outcome: Alanyaspor have won 11/18 home matches while Besiktas have lost 8/10 away matches against top-six teams. Besiktas have had L/L double results in 6/10 away matches against top-six teams.

Alanyaspor - 5th

  • Draw and 2 1-0 defeats last 3 matches.
  • 3 wins at home ended with a loss.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 8 matches.
  • Only 1 win home and away v the top 11.
  • Did not concede a 2nd goal at home v the top 11.
  • 2-0 loss to Besiktas last head to head.
  • 18 of 27 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Besiktas - 7th

  • Only 3 wins in 9 matches.
  • 3 losses in 4 matches away.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Conceded last 5 away.
  • All defeats away v the top 9 conceding 2+ goals v 3rd-9th away.

Conclusions

  • I thought I would look at a Besiktas match. Only 1 win home and away v top 11 for Alanyaspor must give Besiktas a chance BUT....Besiktas have lost every match, conceding 2+ goals v 3rd-9th away. So....both sides have an equally bad argument for backing them!

DANISH SUPER LIGA

18:00 - AGF v Hobro - 1.46 AGF

  • Match outcome: AGF Aarhus have won 7/10 home matches against bottom-six teams while Hobro have lost 10/13 away matches against top-six teams. Hobro have conceded first in 8/13 away matches.

AGF - 3rd

  • 6 wins and a draw last 7 matches.
  • 2 wins and a draw last 3 at home.
  • Scored and conceded in 8 of their last 9 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 2 of 3 home defeats came v the top 2.
  • 1-1 draw last head to head.

Hobro - 12th

  • Only 2 wins.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • No win in 13 and in 9 away.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 away. Conceded last 11 matches away.
  • 18% 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Only away win v bottom side.

Conclusions

  • The market looks right here. Hobro have only 1 win away v bottom if the league.
  • AGF do score and concede but should not lose.
  • lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

DUTCH EERSTE DIVISIE

19:00 - MVV Maastricht v Den Bosch - 2.42 MVV

  • 1st half outcome: Maastricht have drawn the first half in 8/12 home matches against middle-third teams and there have been -2.5 goals in 6/9 Maastricht such matches. Den Bosch have conceded first in 7/10 away matches against middle-third teams.

FC Volendam v Go Ahead Eagles - 1.94 Volendam

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/9 Volendam home matches against top-six teams and in 9/13 G.A. Eagles away matches. There have been +3.5 goals in 5/9 Volendam home matches against top-six teams.

Volendam - 4th

  • Only 1 loss in 16 matches came last match.
  • 2 draws and a loss last 3 matches.
  • 6 wins and 2 draws last 8 home matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 13 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 at home.
  • No defeat in 9 at home.
  • Only home loss v 1st.
  • 3-0 loss last head to head.
  • 11 goals scored at home last 15 mins of matches.

Go Ahead Eagles - 5th

  • 2 consecutive away defeats.
  • The only defeats since 7th September.
  • Not beaten top 8 away.
  • 70% of goals scored and 60% of goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • A top 5 clash so note that. Go Ahead yet to beat the top 8 away as well but do draw a lot.
  • Both teams to score a strong pattern for Volendam. Volendam home form is better than Go Ahead away form v the top 9.

Roda JC v FC Dordrecht - 1.95 Roda

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 7/8 Roda JC home matches against bottom-six teams and +3.5 goals in 6/10 Dordrecht away matches. There have been +3.5 goals in 4/8 Roda JC home matches against bottom-six teams.

Roda - 18th

  • No win in 15 and in 6 at home.
  • Scored and conceded last 7 at home and scored last 13 at home.
  • 8 consecutive over 2.5 goals at home.
  • 3 wins at home v 6th, 17th and 20th at home.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 15th and lower.

Dordrecht - 19th

  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 matches.
  • Draw, Win, Wn, away v 15th and lower.
  • 23 of 31 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Can we trust strugglers who tend to come alive v fellow strugglers? Both teams to score a strong trend for Roda.

FC Eindhoven v Excelsior - 2.24 Excelsior

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 7/8 FC Eindhoven home matches against top-half teams and in 5/5 Excelsior away matches against middle-third teams. There have been +3.5 goals in 3/5 Excelsior away matches against middle-third teams.

FC Eindhoven - 13th

  • Only 8 wins.
  • Win, Draw, Draw, at home recently.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 win home and away v the top 7.
  • 79% of goals scored and 75% of goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Excelsior - 7th

  • Only 2 losses in 11 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 8 matches.
  • Not beaten top 14 away.

Conclusions

  • Recent form is with Excelsior.
  • Excelsior highly likely to score today but note Eindhoven strong 2nd half goals.

Almere City v Helmond Sport - 1.32 Almere

  • Asian handicap: Almere City have won by two or more goals in 6/8 home matches against bottom-six teams while Helmond have lost by two or more goals in 8/13 away matches. Helmond have lost 11/13 away matches against middle-third teams.

Almere City - 10th

  • 2 wins and now 2 losses recently.
  • 2 consecutive 1-0 defeats.
  • Win, Win, Loss, Win, Loss at home.
  • No draw in 8 at home.
  • 23% 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • All wins at home v 13th and lower.
  • 1-1 last head to head.

Helmond Sport - 20th

  • No win in 16 and in 7 away.
  • Conceded last 13 away.
  • 23% 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Only away win v bottom.

Conclusions

  • I must favour Almere who love scoring 2 goals v 13th and lower in wins. Helmond have just the one win.

Cambuur Leeuwarden v Jong PSV Eindhoven - 1.18 Cambuur

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 7/8 Cambuur home matches against bottom-six teams and in 9/10 Jong PSV away matches against top-six teams. Jong PSV have lost 7/8 away matches against top-six teams.

Cambuur - 1st

  • 5 consecutive wins.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • All wins and 1 draw at home v 5th and lower.
  • 0-1 win last head to head.

Jong PSV - 16th

  • 2 losses and 2 draw last 4 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Scored and conceded last 7 away.
  • Conceded last 13 away matches.
  • No win in 5 away.
  • 23% 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Only away win v 20th.

Conclusions

  • Expect 2+ goals from Cambuur today.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

De Graafschap v Jong AZ Alkmaar - 1.3 De Graaf

  • Match outcome: De Graafschap have won 9/13 home matches while Jong AZ have lost by two or more goals in 5/8 trips to top-six teams. Jong AZ have lost 6/8 away matches against top-six teams.

De Graafschap - 2nd

  • Only 1 loss.
  • 6 wins and a draw last 7 matches.
  • 3 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored 2+ goals in 9 of their last 10 matches.
  • No defeat in 13 at home. Scored last 14 matches.
  • All home wins v 12th and lower.
  • 21 of 30 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Jong AZ - 15th

  • No win in 6 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 15 of their last 16 matches.
  • No win in 12 away.
  • Conceded last 26 matches.
  • 9 consecutive over 2.5 goals away.
  • Only 1 away win v 17th and lower.
  • Beat De Graaf at home.
  • 21 of 31 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • With only one win away for AZ suggests de Graaf will have an easy time of it today, scoring 2+ goals. All home wins v 12th and lower for De Graaf should continue today.

NEC Nijmegen v NAC Breda - 2.4 NEC

  • 1st half outcome: NEC have won the first half in 7/10 home matches against top-six teams while NAC Breda have conceded first in 5/7 away matches against top-half teams. NEC have won 12/20 home matches.

Jong Ajax Amsterdam v SC Telstar - 1.63 Jong Ajax

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 10/12 Jong Ajax home matches against middle-third teams and +3.5 goals in 8/11 Telstar away matches. There have been +3.5 goals in 13/18 Jong Ajax home matches.

Jong Ajax - 3rd

  • 2 losses and a win last 3 matches.
  • 4 wins and a loss last 5 at home.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 2+ goals scored last 6 and last 5 at home.
  • Scored last 13 at home.
  • 15% 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Unbeaten at home v 8th and lower.
  • 2-3 win v Telstar earlier this season.

Telstar - 9th

  • Only 1 win in 4 matches.
  • No win in 4 away.
  • Failed to score only 3 times.
  • Scored and conceded last 11 away.
  • 25% 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Not beaten top 10 away. Scored and conceded 2 goals in 4 of those matches.

Conclusions

  • If Telstar keep scoring 2 goals without winning v the top 10 away, then this is a simple angle in.
  • Both teams to score is a strong trend.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

FC Oss v Jong FC Utrecht - 2.5 FC Oss

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/8 FC Oss home matches against middle-third teams and +3.5 goals in 11/20 Jong Utrecht away matches. Jong Utrecht have lost 8/13 away matches.