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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, October 27, 2017

Shortlist at DRT Facebook largely to single out those Dutch Eerste Divisie matches where we hope for both teams to score, over 2.5 goals and a goal before halftime. If I am online I will tweet from 19:00 onwards.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

19:45 - Leeds United v Sheff Utd - 2.32 Leeds

No head to heads since 2011.
2 top 4 teams having a good season.

Leeds United

All 4 defeats this season came within the last 6 matches.
Last loss at home 0-1 was the only home loss of the season.
Not played the current top 7 at home.
6 of 10 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Sheff Utd

No draw.
8 wins and 2 losses in the last 10 matches.
Failed to score only 3 times, 2 of those were within the first 3 matches of the season.
Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
Losses away v 2nd, 12th and 13th.

Conclusions

Lay the late 0-0.
Lay any late draw in the hope Sheff Utd continue to avoid the draw.
I like Sheff Utd's form but it may be telling that their losses away have come v top 13 sides and with Leeds in the top 4, they may struggle.
Leeds are on a poor run where all 4 losses came within the last 6 matches. Only 1 loss at home though.
Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. I can make equal arguments here so will stick to the neutral trades.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

19:45 - PSG v Nice - 1.19 PSG - pre Champions League for PSG - pre Europa League for Nice

Very happy with my PSG research last match v Marseille. PSG are playing another Cote D'azur side tonight.
2-2 and 3-1 Nice in the last 2 head to heads.

PSG

Neymar red card last match. Is he banned for this match?
100% wins at home.
Scored 2+ goals in all home matches, and in 9/10 this season.
Conceded 2 goals in 2 of their last 3 matches.
Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
Scored first in 4/5 at home.
Led at halftime in 4/5 at home.
Cavani and Neymar dominate the goal scoring at home so watch if Neymar is missing because of that red.

Nice

Only 3 wins, 2 came at home.
3 consecutive losses.
0-0-1-0 scored away from home.

Conclusions

If Nice cannot score they cannot win v a team tending to score 2 goals at least this season in every match. Even when conceding 2 goals, PSG still do not lose.
Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market or back PSG in the halftime market based on PSG stats this season.
Look for team news Neymar may be absent.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

19:30 - Mainz v Frankfurt - 2.68 Mainz

2 Frankfurt wins and a 4-2 Mainz win in the last 3 head to heads.

Mainz

3 wins in 4 matches at home.
Only 1 clean sheet.
No draw in 5 at home.
All draws at halftime at home.
All defeats bar 1 came v top 6 teams.
No 0-0.

Frankfurt

2 wins and a 2-2 last 3 matches, scoring 2 goals in each match.
4 2-1 scorelines in their last 6 matches.
Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
Only 1 0-0 at halftime came 1st match of the day.

Conclusions

The market cannot split the teams.
Back 2-1 and 1-2 and hope both teams score and we get a 1-1 to trade out. Note how many 1-2 scorelines Frankfurt have had recently.
Lay any late 0-0.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

19:45 - Twente v Excelsior - 1.89 Twente

Excelsior are unbeaten in 3 of the last 4 head to heads.

Twente

No draw this season.
3 consecutive home wins the only wins this season.
Only 2 clean sheets.
Only 1 0-0 at halftime.

Excelsior

Unbeaten away from home.
2 goals scored in every away match.
Only 1 clean sheet.
Only 0-0 at halftime came last match.

Conclusions

I can make an argument for both sides. 3 consecutive home wins now for Twente. Excelsior have 3 wins and a draw away, scoring 2 goals at least in each match.
Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market?
Lay any late draw based on Twente.

19:00 - Cambuur v Jong PSV - 1.53 Cambuur

1-1 and 0-2 Cambuur the last 2 head to heads.

Cambuur

Only 2 wins came away.
Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
Only 1 clean sheet.
Both teams scored at home and yet to win at home.
No 0-0 at halftime at home.
All defeats came v top 7 and playing 14th today.

Jong

Only 1 win in 6. 3 defeats in 4.
All over 2.5 goals bar 1.
Scored and conceded in 3 wins v 13th and lower.

Conclusions

Jong are conceding heavily of late, hence the warm odds for Cambuur.
Cambuur are yet to win at home, Jong are winning v 13th and lower (Cambuur are 16th).
So I would go against the grain here today and lay Cambuur if Cambuur scored first.
At any rate both teams should score.
Over 2.5 goals has a chance given all bar 1 over 2.5 goals for Jong.

19:00 - De Graafschap v Fortuna Sittard - 1.75 De G

De Graaf have won the last 3 home head to heads with real ease scoring 3-5-3 goals.

De Graaf

Only 1 loss.
4 draws in 5 matches.
Not a strong over 2.5 goals side.
Both teams have scored last 3 at home without de Graaf winning.
No 0-0 at halftime at home.
Not played a top 5 side yet (Fort are 3rd).
5 of 6 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Fortuna Sittard

Only 2 defeats.
A draw and 2 wins last 3 away.
Failed to score in only one match.
Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches.
Only losses v top 2.
9 of 10 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

Fortuna are the form side, De Graaf keep spanking them in head to heads. Which is it to be?
Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
These 2 have strong 2nd half goalscoring stats so fear not that 0-0 at halftime should it occur.
As I say, Fortuna are the form side only losing to the top 2, de Graaf are drawing of late which suggests laying De Graaf if they score first

19:00 - Den Bosch v Helmond Sport - 1.93 Den Bosch

0-0, 1-1, 2-0 Helmond in the last 3 head to heads.
This is 8th v 18th.

Den Bosch

3 consecutive home wins.
Only 1 loss in 7 matches.
Failed to score only once.
No 0-0 at halftime.
No 0-0.
Scored first in all home matches.
Led at halftime in 3/4 at home.

Helmond Sport

Only 1 win came last match away.
Both teams scored in 8/10 matches.
Only 1 clean sheet.
Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
Not played the top 9 away.
5 of 6 goals scored away were scored 2nd half.

Conclusions

Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
Den Bosch are the form side here and having failed to score only once, I expect them to score today.
Lay any late 0-0.
Helmond 80% both teams scored. Will that continue today?

19:00 - Emmen v FC Oss - 1.48 Emmen

2-2 and 2-0 Emmen in the last 2 head to heads.

Emmen

Only 1 loss came last match.
Draw, Draw, Draw, Win Win at home.
2 consecutive home wins.
0-0's at home v 3rd and 9th.
Not beaten a top 13 side home or away (playing 4th today).

FC Oss

Only 2 losses.
Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches.
3-3-2-3 goals scored away.
Only 2 0-0's at halftime came first 2 matches of the season.
Scored first in all away matches.

Conclusions

Emmen's odds look too short for me given Oss's goalscoring away.
Emmen have lost only one match.
If we trust the market, Oss tend to score first away so lay them if they do.
Both teams should really score.
Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

19:00 - FC Eindhoven v Jong Ajax - 1.76 Jong Ajax

2-1, 2-1, 1-1 Eindhoven in the last 3 head to heads.

FC Eindhoven

Failed to score in only 1 match.
Draw, Loss, Loss Win at home.
Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
No 0-0 at halftime at home.
Not beaten a top 8 team. Ajax are top.
No 0-0.

Jong Ajax

Only 1 defeat came last match.
All wins away.
Scored in every match.
No 0-0 at halftime.
2-3-4-3 scored away.
8/10 over 2.5 goals.
9 of 13 goals scored away came 1st half.
Scored first in all matches away.

Conclusions

Ajax should eye the win.
Over 2.5 goals likely.
Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
Eindhoven have not beaten a top 8 side yet, Ajax are 1st.

19:00 - Go Ahead Eagles v Jong AZ Alkmaar - 1.99 Go Ahead

Go Ahead

3 wins in 4 matches.
Only 2 defeats.
Failed to score only once and only one clean sheet.
Scored and conceded in all bar 1 match.
7 of 9 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Jong AZ

Only 1 draw was a 2-2.
Scored and conceded in all bar 1 match.
Scored in every match.
All over 2.5 goals bar 1 match.

Conclusions

Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
Both teams to score is a strong pattern for both.
Lay any late draw.

19:00 - NEC Nijmegen v Jong Utrecht - 1.29 NEC

NEC

Only 1 defeat.
4 consecutive wins.
Failed to score in only 1 match.
4 wins and a draw at home.
No 0-0 at halftime at home.
Scored first in all home matches.
Led at halftime in all home matches.

Jong

Only 2 wins came at home.
No away win.
Conceded 2 goals in 4 of 5 matches, scoring in those too.

Conclusions

NEC should win today but both teams could score. Expect 2 goals at least from NEC today.
Lay the 0-0 in the halftime market. In fact 100% record for NEC leading at halftime.

19:00 - Waalwijk v Dordrecht - 2.04 Waalwijk

1-1 and 2-1 Waalwijk in the last 2 head to heads.

Waalwijk

No win.
3 draws in 4 matches at home.
Only 1 clean sheet.
Only 1 0-0 at halftime.

Dordrecht

Both teams scored in all bar 1 matches.
3 losses and a win away.
Conceded in all matches.
Failed to score only once.
No 0-0 at halftime away.
Unbeaten home and away v teams below them in the league.

Conclusions

Not sure why Waalwijk are favourites. Dordrecht are unbeaten home and away v teams below them in the league (Waalwijk are 19th).
I would expect Dordrecht not to lose on form. Dordrecht are highly likely to score.
Well, both teams should score in Dordrecht matches.
Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.