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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, March 27, 2015

A less than exciting in-play coupon today. It seems the shorties in recent days are , on the whole, delivering. That may be the angle in, incase any of them concede first.

10:30 UK Japan v Tunisia - 1.44 home

Standout Stats

  • This is another international friendly and Japan are guaranteed a mental home support as is the case whenever they set foot on home soil
  • Only 1 draw in 23 matches for Japan in friendlies is something we may be able to work with.
  • Japan have won 9 of their last 11 friendlies and only lost to Uruguay and Brazil.
  • The last African country they met in a friendly was Zambia and that resulted in a 4-3 win for Japan.
  • No draw in 17 home friendlies. Losses at home have come v Bulgaria, Brazil ( twice), Uruguay ( twice)
  • Some worrying friendly wins i.e. 1-0 v Cyprus and Jamaica may temper enthusiasm today.
  • 3 of Tunisia's recent 5 defeats in friendlies came v African opponents. They did also lose to Switzerland and Belgium.
  • Tunisia look as if they keep it really tight in friendlies  0-2-1-1-1-4-0-1-0-1-1. They tend to be in trouble if conceding 2 or more
  • Recent away friendly wins have been 0-1  ( Egypt and Korea) and Iraq ( 1-2)

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Not a match which appeals at all as a betting medium. I suppose Japan's ability to avoid draws in friendlies might suggest we lay any late draw.
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19:00 UK Czech Rep U21 v England U21 - 2 away

Standout Stats

  • This is an under 21 friendly and does not appeal at all.
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19:35 UK Dundalk v Sligo Rovers - 1.6 home

Standout Stats

  • 3-0 Dundalk and 1-0 the last time these 2 met in 2014
  • This is 1st v 10th after only 4 matches in the Irish Premier Division

Dundalk

  • 4 consecutive wins this season without conceding a goal.2 1-0's and 2 3-0.s

Sligo Rovers

  • 2 home 1-1 draws and 2 losses away 3-2 and 1-2.
  • Sligo have scored and conceded in 4 consecutive matches.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • What's it to be? A team keeping clean sheets plays a team who have scored and conceded in all 4 matches this season.
  • This suggests we lay Sligo Rovers if Sligo score first here.
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19:45 UK Slovenia v San Marino - 1.03 home

Standout Stats

  • San Marino have conceded a maximum of 5 goals in recent qualifiers.  So don't go above this amount if you want a correct score punt to nil today  - as San Marino tend not to score.
  • Slovenia won 1-0 in their most recent home qualifier. They beat Faroe Islands 5-1 in 2010 and that is perhaps not relevant but might be a gauge to work with.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Expect goals before halftime, and wish for a 40th minute 0-0 as we'll have a nice value lay of the 0-0 halftime score!
  • Expect 5 goals maximum today from Slovenia. Expect an impressive win as Slovenia are joint 2nd in Group E with England dominating.
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19:45 UK Spain v Ukraine - 1.25 home

Standout Stats

  • This is a Euro Championship match  - competitive not friendly.
  • These 2 last met in 2006
  • This is a Group C match between Spain in 2nd and Ukraine in 3rd. Both teams are on 9 points.

Spain

  • 15 wins in their last 16 EC qualifiers for Spain. Only top in Group C Slovakia have beaten Spain.
  • 14 consecutive home wins for Spain in EC qualifiers.

Ukraine

  • Ukraine have won their last 3 qualifiers v Belarus, Macedonia, Luxembourg.
  • 2 away wins v Belarus and Luxembourg in qualifiers.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Spain have an enviable record in qualifiers. How on earth can Ukraine beat them?  We must favour Spain here today in what is unlikely to be a DRT match. Spain have just been too efficient in EC qualifiers to date.
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19:45 UK Montenegro v Russia - 2.05 away

Standout Stats

  • These 2 are locked on 5 points in Group G so a win is a necessity really with Sweden "apparently" having the easier of the encounters away at Moldova.
  • Similar results for both. A shocker for Russia against Moldova  - 1-1 and a shocker for Montenegro against Leichtenstein 0-0

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • These 2 are in poor form and Russia are having real trouble scoring  1-1-0 recently. This is not a match which interests me.
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19:45 UK Moldova v Sweden - 1.4 away

Standout Stats

  • Moldova are bottom of Group G and Sweden are 2nd with Russia and Montenegro a point behind them

Moldova

  • 2-0 loss to Montenegro, 1-2 loss to Austria, 1-1 v Russia and 0-1 v Liechtenstein. Moldova are surprisingly competitive.
  • Moldova may have trouble scoring at home, their sole goal was a penalty. It took a penalty from Austria to equalise.

Sweden

  • 3 1-1 draws and a 2-0 win over Liechtenstein
  • Sweden may not lost but may not win.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • This has "banana skin' written all over it for a below par Sweden who might only be saved by Moldova's inability to score regularly.
  • I may even lay Sweden at 0-1 up incase they slip up with another score draw. Do remember how competitive Moldova have been , albeit largely in defeat.
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19:45 UK Slovakia v Luxembourg - 1.1 home

Standout Stats

  • Slovakia are 100% in Group C, leaving the likes of Spain in their wake.
  • Luxembourg have the one point and are not doing much.

Slovakia

  • 4 consecutive wins in EC qualifiers includes a win against Spain.

Luxembourg

  • 1-3-4-3 conceded in their 4 qualifiers to date and 1.1 odds for Slovakia is in keeping with this.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Expect 3/4 goals at least from a high flying Slovakia today .  As ever , expectation is for a goal before halftime when we see these odds.
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19:45 UK England v Lithuania - 1.12 home

Standout Stats

  • England have a 6 point gap in Group E in the EC qualifiers so this is not a must win . They do have some leeway.

England

  • 3 wins to nil and a 3-1 sees an impressive qualifying campaign so far. 5-0 and 3-1 in their 2 home matches v San Marino and Slovenia.

Lithuania

  • Lithuania lost to Slovenia and Switzerland in qualifiers, beat San Marino and Estonia.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • 1.12 as you know suggests 3+ goals from Eng-er-land and a breakthrough before halftime, so dust off the lay the 0-0 halftime score here.
  • England should be as emphatic as their previous home wins. 3-5 goals today and a possible clean sheet, although Slovenia did score.
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19:45 UK Liechtenstein v Austria - 1.18 away

Standout Stats

  • Austria are top in Group G and Liechtenstein have 4 points only. They could conceivably go 2nd if the other teams play blindfolded with their legs tied together.

Liechtenstein

  • Only 1 goal scored in 4 qualifiers was a 0-1 win v Moldova. Liechtenstein also drew with Montenegro
  • They lost convincingly to Russia and Sweden

Austria

  • A draw and 3 wins in qualifiers. 2 wins were 1-0 only v Montenegro and Russia.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Liechtenstein have a mountain to climb . Austria beat Russia 1-0. Liechtenstein were beaten by Russia 4-0 so there is collateral form.
  • 1.18 suggests 3/4 goals for an Austrian side who have been efficient rather than goal crazy. 1.18 also suggests a goal before halftime, along with so many matches today.
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19:45 UK Switzerland v Estonia - 1.17 home

Standout Stats

  • Switzerland are one of 3 sides in Group E on 6 points. England are on 12 points.

Switzerland

  • Losses to England and Slovenia and wins v San Marino and Lithuania is not the best form in the world. But in Estonia, the Swiss meet another lowly ranked side who they should beat . They won 4-0 against the other 2 minnows. 1.17 odds as you know suggests 3/4 goals today with home advantage.

Estonia

  • When Estonia get beaten, they just about get beaten. 1-0 win over Slovenia, 1-0 losses to Lithuania and England and a 0-0 with San Marino. The last result is terrible but the England result really is an eyecatcher against a Swiss side who, although scoring 4 v Lithuania and San Marino, are not renowned for their goalscoring.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • I wonder what a 1-0 Swiss win correct score will get you. It might be worth a speculative punt. The Swiss though are expected to win , and maybe replicate their 4-0's against  Lithuania and San Marino.
  • I may not lay the 0-0 halftime score here incase Estonia turn up as they did against England
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20:00 UK Shamrock Rovers v Bohemians - 1.57 home

Standout Stats

  • 0-0 and 1-1 the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 2nd v 3rd in the Irish Premier Division after 4 matches.

Shamrock

  • Have only conceded one goal this season. 1-0 and 0-0 at home

Bohemians

  • 3 wins and a loss v Dundalk last time out.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • No angles in at all here bar the betting market.
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