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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, January 27, 2017

Standard's 2-2 was the Stand-out yesterday. Man Utd's loss to Hull did, I hope, remind you that 2-legged matches are difficult to predict. Man Utd's focus was on the aggregate score - which they won.
Today sees our friend from the Dutch Eerste Divisie return to action. I have not researched the matches were the odds for the favourite were 2.6 or higher. The market gives the clues - too tough to call. I will hope to be on Twitter at 19:00 today. No promises though.

19:00 - WiIIem II v Sparta Rotterdam - 2.06 Willem II

  • This is the Dutch Eredivisie.

Willem II 100% stats

  • Not won to nil at home.
  • No home match with exactly 4 goals.

Willem II other stats

  • Failed to score in 11 of their last 16 matches.
  • 3 0-0's, 3 1-0 scorelines and a 2-1 in their last 7 matches.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 2-2 last time these 2 met.

Sparta 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • Not beaten any team above them in the league away from home (Willem II are 12th - Sparta are 13th).

Sparta other stats

  • Conceded in their last 13 matches and last 9 away matches.
  • No win in 9 away and in 7 overall.
  • Only 1 win in 13 matches.

Conclusions

  • A favourite failing to score in 11 of their last 16 matches. No thanks!
  • Sparta have not had a 0-0 and have conceded in their last 9 away matches. Enough to lay Sparta if Sparta score first.

19:00 - FC Oss - VVV - 1.81 VVV

  • This is the Dutch Eerste Divisie.

FC Oss 100% stats

  • No clean sheets.
  • Not played top 4 at home yet, VVV are 1st.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals.

FC Oss other stats

  • In 13 of the last 15 matches, at least one team has scored 3 goals or more.
  • 16 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches.
  • Both teams have scored in the last 13 matches and last 8 at home.
  • Scored 2 goals in all bar 1 home match but as I said earlier, FC Oss have not played the top 4 at home yet.
  • 90% over 3.5 goals matches at home.

VVV 100% stats

  • No over 4.5 goals.
  • No 1-0 or 0-1 away.

VVV other stats

  • 9 wins and 2 draws in their last 11 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 5 clean sheets in their last 8 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 all season.
  • 12 wins, a draw and a loss v teams 8th and lower in the league (Oss are 14th).

Conclusions

  • We should not see a 0-0 today.
  • Both teams tend to score in Oss matches but I note Oss struggled away to the top 4 (yes they are at home this time).
  • Stats wise, both teams should score and even score 2 goals each with Oss not winning.
  • At their best, VVV should score at least 3 goals today.
  • In the expectation for goals, lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

19:00 - FC Eindhoven v Waalwijk - 1.7 FC

  • 2 consecutive 1-2 wins for FC Eindhoven in 2016 head to heads came away.
  • This is the Dutch Eerste Divisie.

FC Eindhoven 100% stats

  • No 0-0 this season.
  • No home match with exactly 4 goals.

FC Eindhoven other stats

  • All 4 defeats since 21st October came away from home.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • 5 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 matches at home.
  • Only 1 home clean sheet.

Waalwijk 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • Not beaten any top 13 team away from home.
  • No away match with exactly 3 goals.

Waalwijk other stats

  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.

Conclusions

  • Do not expect a 0-0 in this match.
  • Both teams could score today with Waalwijk not winning (if Waalwijk keep struggling to win away v top 13 teams).

19:00 - Almere City v Fortuna Sittard - 1.52 AImere

  • These sides have won alternate matches in the last 4 head to heads.
  • This is the Dutch Eerste Divisie.

Almere City 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • All wins at home v teams 6th and lower (Fortuna are 16th).

Almere City other stats

  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Not played 13th -19th at home (Fortuna are 16th).

Fortuna Sittard 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • All defeats away v top 7 teams (Almere are 8th).

Fortuna Sittard other stats

  • Only 1 win in 11 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • No draw in 9 away matches.
  • In 6 away matches, conceded 3 goals or more.

Conclusions

  • Do not expect a 0-0. Note that if 0-0 beginning or end of the 2nd half. Almere have failed to score only twice.
  • Lay any late draw as Fortuna keep avoiding them away.
  • At their worst, Fortuna will lose and concede 3 goals or more.
  • In the expectation for goals, I tend to lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market although there are no ready stats for this league.

19:00 - Emmen v Jong PSV - 1.87 Emmen

Emmen 100% stats

  • No over 3.5 goals at home.

Emmen other stats

  • Only 1 win in 9 matches.
  • In 4 matches v top 6 have been unable to win. Playing 7th today.
  • Did beat 8th, 10th and 12th.

Jong PSV 100% stats

  • All away defeats by a single goal.
  • No over 3.5 goals away.

Jong PSV other stats

  • Failed to score last 4 matches with 2 0-0's.
  • Only 3 wins in 13 matches.
  • No win in 8 away matches.
  • Failed to score in their last 6 away matches.
  • Only scored 2 goals once away and that was a win v 1st!

Conclusions

  • 2 teams in poor recent winning form. A match to swerve from my perspective. Emmen have trouble beating top 6 sides and play 7th today.
  • Jong PSV have trouble even scoring a goal!
  • What I would suggest is to back 0-0 pre-match and hope that a) Emmen's 0-0's v top 6 teams resurrect and b) Jong PSV have their traditional problem scoring a goal away. I tend to trade out at halftime if lucky enough to see a 0-0 at halftime.

19:00 - Achilles 29 v Helmond Sport - 1.8 HeImond

Achilles 29 100% stats

  • No home win.
  • Not won to nil.

Achilles 29 other stats

  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Only 1 win  was against today's opponents.
  • Failed to score in 10 of their last 12 matches.
  • Failed to score in their last 5 matches and last 3 at home.
  • Have conceded 2 goals at least at home v top 15 sides (Helmond are 6th).

Helmond Sport 100% stats

  • Not won to nil away.

Helmond Sport other stats

  • 2 defeats in their last 3 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Lost 1-0 away to 2nd bottom and lost at home to bottom (today's side).
  • Comfortable away wins v 3rd bottom and 4th bottom scoring 4 goals in each win.

Conclusions

  • Are Achilles really going to beat Helmond Sport again this season? Achilles cannot even score in recent matches.
  • There is an argument that Helmond could be vulnerable, having lost to bottom 2 sides but on form, they could score the 4 goals of their comfortable away wins v 3rd and 4th bottom.
  • Logic suggests that Achilles will not win. That's the conclusion that comes when you see a team with only 1 win.

19:30 - SchaIke v Frankfurt - 1.92 Schalke

  • This is the German Bundesliga.
  • In head to heads, Frankfurt are unbeaten in 3 of 4 matches and kept a clean sheet in those matches.

Schalke 100% stats

  • No home 0-0.
  • Schalke have failed to beat any team above them in the league - Frankfurt are 6th to Schalke's 10th.
  • No over 4.5 goals at home.
  • No opponent has led at halftime at home.

Schalke other stats

  • Only 1 win in 5 matches was a 1-0 v Ingolstadt.
  • 4 consecutive 0-0's at halftime.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home.

Frankfurt 100% stats

  • No over 3.5 goals matches away.

Frankfurt other stats

  • Only 4 defeats. 2 defeats in their last 2 away matches.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 away matches.
  • Scored 0-0-0-1-0 goals in away matches v top 14 teams.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0 as Schalke keep avoiding them at home.
  • If this is 0-0 at halftime expect at least one goal second half although head to heads have been really tight and Frankfurt have had real trouble scoring away v top teams.
  • Schalke 1-0? But only 1 win in 5 matches. But them Frankfurt have only 4 defeats, albeit 2 in their last 2 away matches. They do tend to be tough to beat.
  • A headscratcher for me!

19:45 - MarseiIIe v MontpeIIier - 1.81 MarseiIIe

  • This is a French Ligue 1 match.

Marseille 100% stats

  • Not lost to nil at home.
  • No home match with exactly 4 goals.

Marseille other stats

  • 5 over 2.5 goals matches in their last 6.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 8 clean sheets in 9 matches at home v teams outside of the top 3.

Montpellier 100% stats

  • No away win.
  • Conceded in all away matches.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.

Montpellier other stats

  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Only 3 wins in 12 matches includes home wins v PSG and Bordeaux.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime in their last 15 matches.
  • Opponents have led in 7/11 away matches.

Conclusions

  • If Marseille continue to keep clean sheets, then this is their match to win. With Montpellier conceding in all away matches, it suggests a 1-0, 2-0 possible eventual Marseille win.
  • Montpellier could concede before halftime so lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market if the match is 0-0 after 20 minutes

19:45 - Aberdeen v Dundee - 1.42 Aberdeen

  • This is a Scottish Premier League match (SPL).
  • 4 consecutive Aberdeen wins in head to heads.

Aberdeen 100% stats

  • Playing for 2nd spot in the SPL.
  • All home wins by either 1 or 4+ goals.
  • Not conceded in both halves at home.

Aberdeen other stats

  • 3 consecutive wins.
  • Only home loss was v Celtic.

Dundee FC 100% stats

  • Defeats away by 1 or 2 goals.
  • No over 4.5 goals matches away.

Dundee FC other stats

  • All defeats v top 3.
  • All away defeats v top 5.
  • In 6 of 7 away defeats, Dundee conceded 2 goals at least.

Conclusions

  • Aberdeen look well placed to record a win, and possibly scoring 2 goals along the way. Lay Dundee if Dundee score first.
  • There are no strong halftime stats here.

19:45 - Osasuna v MaIaga - 2.46 Malaga

  • This is the Spanish Primera Liga.
  • 2 bottom 7 sides with Osasuna bottom of the league.

Osasuna 100% stats

  • No home win.

Osasuna other stats

  • Only 1 win.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • 3-3-3-4 goals conceded in their last 4 home matches.
  • Conceded in their last 15 matches.
  • In only 2 home matches Osasuna have managed NOT to concede at least 2 goals.

Malaga 100% stats

  • No win away.
  • Not led at halftime away.
  • Not met bottom 5 teams away.

Malaga other stats

  • 4 consecutive defeats.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 away matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Opponents have led at halftime in 9 of 10 away matches.
  • 16 of 20 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • A bit of an unknown as Malaga have not met bottom 5 sides away from home yet.
  • It does get hard to rely on bottom sides. Will Osasuna continue to concede? They certainly should. And what of Malaga's 2 clean sheets? Can we rely on Osasuna to actually score?

19:55 - Derby County v Leicester - 2.86 Leicester

  • This is the FA Cup.
  • I am only going to research the cup form for both sides.

Derby County FA Cup Form

  • No draw in 14 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 4 matches includes a 1-2 loss v Man Utd and 2-1 win v West Brom.
  • Lost their last 2 home matches.
  • No draw in 11 at home.

Leicester FA Cup Form

  • Mostly played premiership opponents recently. Losses v Aston Villa, Tottenham, and draw v Tottenham and away win v Everton.
  • Scored and conceded in 11 of their last 12 away matches stretching as far back as 2009.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late draw given Derby's stats? Both teams to score too is very strong with Leicester away in the FA Cup.
  • Leicester have been playing better opponents of late. Enough to have faith in them? Lay Derby if Derby score first.